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美联储货币政策报告:风险资产估值没有过热 警告长端债券价格下行
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Topic: 美联储货币政策报告:风险资产估值没有过热 警告长端债券价格下行 (Read 101 times)
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美联储货币政策报告:风险资产估值没有过热 警告长端债券价格下行
November 23, 2017, 08:09:43 PM
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北京时间周五23:00,美联储向国会发布了半年度货币政策报告,讨论了美国经济发展、货币政策实施以及未来展望,具体措辞同6月FOMC会议声明立场一致。报告没有谈及具体的货币政策,只是重申了年内还会再加息一次、今年开始缩表的政策主张,没有提供加息和缩表的时间点。报告认为,已经出台的财政政策对今年GDP增长影响为中性,并没有谈及尚待讨论的税改和医改对经济的潜在影响。报告认为,上半年美国的经济活动呈温和增长,劳动力市场持续趋紧,年化通胀率自3月触及2%的目标后有所下调。报告重申了6月FOMC会议声明的语句,即近期通胀会持续低于2%,但中期内围绕这一目标保持稳定。不过美联储的货币政策路径同经济数据挂钩,正密切关注通胀发展。总体来说,当前和未来的经济条件支持逐步地去除货币宽松政策,今年前五个月的平均月度非农新增就业16.2万,虽比2016年数值略有下调,但已足够吸纳入新晋劳动力。雇佣情况好转之下的薪资增幅仅呈温和态势,或与近几年的生产率增速疲软有关。报告在“特别话题”一栏也详述了对发达国家劳动生产率在过去10年显著下降的看法,认为或由大规模采用信息技术、全球金融危机导致对研发的投入下降等因素引发,并很难判断是否成为了新常态。报告对二季度美国经济增速抱有信心,认为年初的消费支出疲软明显改观,得益于就业增长、家庭可支配收入增加,以及消费者信心提升。今年的商业投资情绪也比去年大幅跃升,房市持续稳步复苏,并得到全球经济环境改善的外部因素提振。在国内金融市场方面,美联储承认股市、债市和商业地产的估值压力上升,信用卡和车贷的次级贷款违约率增加。不过,美国金融系统风险犹存但已呈温和趋势,并且没有流动性风险,特别是对企业债市场。报告延续了6月FOMC会议的讨论风格,认为一些迹象显示投资者的风险偏好从2月中旬以来抬升,导致部分资产类别存在估值偏高压力,但平均来看的估值没有过热,不必过分担忧。报告还特别提到了美国国债的期限溢价(term premium),即长期国债相对于短期国债的超额回报率。虽然目前处于历史低位,但将随着银根的收紧而回升至正常水平。国债收益率曲线趋陡,表明长期债券价格有下行风险,也会影响到其他资产价格,应引起投资者注意。美联储主席耶伦定于下周三、四接受国会半年期听证,针对众议院金融服务委员会的讲话稿将于北京时间下周三20:30发布。本次半年期货币政策报告改为提前发布,是为了方便国会议员与公众在耶伦听证前有时间检视报告。报告发布后,美元/日元突破114关口,为5月11日首次。黄金跌幅扩大至1.1%,报1211.18美元/盎司。美债收益率上涨,10年期美债收益率升至2.389%,接近先前8周高位2.396%。纳指涨幅扩大至1%,道指涨约90点,标普500指数也涨0.6%。
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