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Author Topic: Mining fundamentally is only marginally profitable.  (Read 1407 times)
rezurect (OP)
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June 28, 2013, 04:45:05 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2013, 04:56:52 PM by rezurect
 #1

BTC is no get rich quick scheme. Miners paying for power will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs or away from BTC, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic (gpu miners).

We just had a very short time window(disruptive tech window) in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.

Good luck to guys with low power costs.
Happy hashing.
empoweoqwj
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June 28, 2013, 06:09:43 AM
 #2

BTC is no get rich quick scheme. Miners paying for power will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs or away from BTC, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic (gpu miners).

We just had a very short time window(disruptive tech window) in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.

Good luck to guys with low power costs.
Happy hashing.

Great point. Its a combination of low electricity charging countries, plus low-power consuming ASICS.

Anyone have a list of which countries charge lowest for electricity in world. China pretty near top presumably?
laserwolf
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June 28, 2013, 06:16:11 AM
 #3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing

Stephen Gornick
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June 28, 2013, 07:04:35 AM
 #4

BTC is no get rich quick scheme. Miners paying for power will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs or away from BTC, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic (gpu miners).

Bitcoin mining has a lonnnnnngggggg way to go before there is any significant difference in profitability between those with a low cost of electricity and everyone else.

Now GPU rigs, sure -- miners should be packing it in pretty soon now, regardless of what they pay for electricity.

As far as ASICs being profitable has to do with massive backlogs of hardware orders finally reaching customers.  The capacity coming online could still be limited such that ASIC mining will still be quite profitable -- not like today's level, but profitable such that there is breakeven in under a year.   

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empoweoqwj
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June 28, 2013, 08:07:22 AM
 #5

BTC is no get rich quick scheme. Miners paying for power will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs or away from BTC, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic (gpu miners).

Bitcoin mining has a lonnnnnngggggg way to go before there is any significant difference in profitability between those with a low cost of electricity and everyone else.

Now GPU rigs, sure -- miners should be packing it in pretty soon now, regardless of what they pay for electricity.

As far as ASICs being profitable has to do with massive backlogs of hardware orders finally reaching customers.  The capacity coming online could still be limited such that ASIC mining will still be quite profitable -- not like today's level, but profitable such that there is breakeven in under a year.   

Err ... GPU rigs should have been packing it in about 3 months ago.
empoweoqwj
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June 28, 2013, 08:09:11 AM
 #6


Don't start a mining operation in Tonga unless you can use solar power somehow  Grin
Pinwheel
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June 28, 2013, 11:41:49 AM
 #7

BTC is no get rich quick scheme. Miners paying for power will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs or away from BTC, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic (gpu miners).

We just had a very short time window(disruptive tech window) in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.

Good luck to guys with low power costs.
Happy hashing.

common, this mantra mining is dead or soon will be not new. tell this to friedcat who mine btc for 1.6 mil usd per week.

when BFL announced ASICs, here on forum were a lot of threads declaring GPU mining as good as dead, so now after more then one year, it is not dead, GPU mining moved to LTC and LTC mining 150% more profitable then bitcoin mining. same time we can see how btc going down and ltc going up.

most of mining speculations proved to be wrong, so why make more just do it or do not do it.  cause that kind of speculations aint gonna work in real life and worth nothing. there is money to be made and some alt coins which worth nothing now, may repeat the path of bitcoins in near future. some people already understand that and looking to be an early adopters. for example  "buy" orders for trc on btc-e 200K at any time.

Tom Waits: We should just start as soon as possible cause we might catch a rabbit before we have our pants on. (Juxtapoz)
rezurect (OP)
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June 28, 2013, 01:41:47 PM
Last edit: June 28, 2013, 02:27:39 PM by rezurect
 #8

BTC is no get rich quick scheme.
More hash rate is (edit): and will be added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, ...
.... rigs or away from BTC (gpu miners).


tell this to friedcat who mine btc for 1.6 mil usd per week.
We just had a very short time window(disruptive tech window) in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.
Please do not read the argument as "mining will be unprofitable" or "will be dead". The point is profits from mining will fall from today's levels to a marginally profitable level (Which is still profit).
Friedcats ASICminers and Avalon miners are within the said window. The window hasn't closed as of now.
The fact that Friedcat will not be earning 1.6 mil usd per week for-ever shows profits will equalize to a marginally profitable level, Market theory.


GPU mining moved to LTC
rigs or away from BTC,  ... (gpu miners).
Same point. For more profits had to move away from btc.
They could have continued on btc at the said lower profitable levels.
GPU miners have or will reach the marginally profitable level.

There will be profits to be made, which is essentially reward for supporting the network with hashrate.
Unlike todays 180 day ROI ASICs, in the long term
BTC is no get rich quick scheme.
and mining will return to marginally profitable levels even for ASICs.(It hits the GPus, FPGAs, the 1st gen ASIcs, then the 2nd and so on)
A clear argument can be made on the timeframe which this happens but i believe it is inevitable.


Bitcoin mining has a lonnnnnngggggg way to go before there is any significant difference in profitability between those with a low cost of electricity and everyone else.
A clear argument can be made on the timeframe for ASICs when this happens but, i believe it is inevitable and not so far away .
Unfortunately electricity costs have have already hit GPUs on btc. GPUs had a run for approx (2009-2013) five years.

Now GPU rigs, sure -- miners should be packing it in pretty soon now, regardless of what they pay for electricity.
Forget moving to LTC for a sec ;even then, Should you really pack up a GPU BTC rig if you don't have to pay for electricity?(Only overheads come into expense)

As far as ASICs being profitable has to do with massive backlogs of hardware orders finally reaching customers.  The capacity coming online could still be limited such that ASIC mining will still be quite profitable -- not like today's level, but profitable such that there is breakeven in under a year.    
Current pricing schemes and ROIs are skewed due to the disruptive tech influence. For rigs to have ROIs under a year shouldn't todays short supply situation persist for the said duration? If the short supply persists for the current year the 1 year ROIs are the most likely scenario, but the short supply cannot exist for years to come. Isnt it just a matter of time before ASIC manufacturers truly can mass produce without order backlog?
rezurect (OP)
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July 05, 2013, 06:08:37 PM
 #9

The current difficulty projects an exchange rate lower than $50 will make ROI  in $ very difficult for the vast majority of miners, at least for those that are not hashing yet.

As it happened in 2011, this gold rush will end up with people mining at a loss and/or turning their rigs off.
rohirrim
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October 01, 2013, 03:15:39 PM
 #10

Sorry for posting in an old thread. I need some help. I Have been tracking my electricity bill. I don't think it is profitable.
I mined just 128 FTC & 20 LTC with around 2050 kh/s rig. 

Sr. No.   Month   Bill Period                       Bill Amount   consumed

13       Aug-13          11/07/2013 - 08/08/2013   1943      365
14       Sep-13         08/08/2013 - 10/09/2013   4381      604

Mining was off at Nights typically 11:00 PM to 8:00 AM in Aug-2013. In Sep-2013 it was 24hrs.
Will keep mining till the 9th of october 2013 00:00 hrs wait for this month's bill to see if I should continue.

I have calculated 128*0.00092*122*62 = 897.15 INR

                         20*0.01819*122*62 = 2767.67 INR

======================================
                                                          3664.83
                                                        - 4381.00
======================================
                                             Profit  =  -716

I have not taken into account the withdrawal charges and waiting times to get the money in India. So senior indian miners pls guide me. How should I proceed?



peonminer
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October 01, 2013, 03:26:10 PM
 #11

If only we got free electricity with obamacare Smiley)
rohirrim
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October 02, 2013, 04:16:15 AM
 #12

So do you also think, mining is not profitable?
Pinwheel
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October 08, 2013, 10:12:48 AM
 #13

So do you also think, mining is not profitable?

I pay 20000-22000 INr per month for mining and it is not bother me at all. It depends how many watts your miner consuming per ghs or khs of speed. What cost of coins you mine. Difficulty and how many coins you getting per month. GPU mining of alt coins still must be profitable, 2.5 time more efficient compared to bitcoins, according to sites like coinotron.

Tom Waits: We should just start as soon as possible cause we might catch a rabbit before we have our pants on. (Juxtapoz)
aakashkumar
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October 10, 2013, 01:14:33 AM
 #14

Sorry for posting in an old thread. I need some help. I Have been tracking my electricity bill. I don't think it is profitable.
I mined just 128 FTC & 20 LTC with around 2050 kh/s rig. 

Sr. No.   Month   Bill Period                       Bill Amount   consumed

13       Aug-13          11/07/2013 - 08/08/2013    1943      365
14       Sep-13         08/08/2013 - 10/09/2013    4381      604

Mining was off at Nights typically 11:00 PM to 8:00 AM in Aug-2013. In Sep-2013 it was 24hrs.
Will keep mining till the 9th of october 2013 00:00 hrs wait for this month's bill to see if I should continue.

I have calculated 128*0.00092*122*62 = 897.15 INR

                         20*0.01819*122*62 = 2767.67 INR

======================================
                                                          3664.83
                                                        - 4381.00
======================================
                                             Profit  =  -716

I have not taken into account the withdrawal charges and waiting times to get the money in India. So senior indian miners pls guide me. How should I proceed?






So about Rs.7.5 Per KW is too costly Electricity For mining Operation.
But Electricity cost for me  Rs.4 Per KW and still alt coin Mining is Profitable to Me
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