Confess, Single Digit Believers

[Spaceman_Spiff]

is everyone trying to figure out where the bottom is now?  

that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.

Seems pretty likely to me.  I also think it will take quite while before we find the final bottom.

[romerun]

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.

IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.

$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds

$30 ---> $266
8 folds

it's actually from $13, so 20 folds

[Spaceman_Spiff]

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.

IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.

$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds

$30 ---> $266
8 folds

it's actually from $13, so 20 folds

Yeah, I would say 2011: 30 fold, 2013: 20 fold
so, 2015 : 10 fold?
--> and 2019 : CRASHH !!!   

[evolve]

If you are going to ignore media/public attention in 2011 to call the bubble at 1-2, I'd have to say 2013's bubble started at 10 based on volume and rate of price increase.

No worries, this all comes down to personal opinion and how you read the data....we are not all going to come to the same conclusions.

[Frozenlock]

Sure, but I wouldn't call this bubble bigger than the 2011 one.

[evolve]

No? Setting aside percentage (because we are not going to agree on where the bubbles began), look at the volume between 2011 and 2013.   Look at media coverage in 2011 vs 2013.  Look at the hype on this forum in 2011 vs 2013.

How exactly was the bubble bigger in 2011?  I honestly don't see it.



volume chart and closing price for reference:

[Frozenlock]

I look at the Bitcoin "ecosystem" and compare it with the price.

From the unencrypted wallet.dat in 2011 to casually paying my SSL certificates with bitcoins in 2013.

[evolve]

And how does that make the 2011 bubble bigger?  Why is that metric more important to quantifying the bubble than things volume, media coverage, and hype within the community (or the aggregate data of those metrics combined)?

[Frozenlock]

(2011 price / 2011 ecosystem)  > (2013 price / 2013 ecosystem)

Are we going to disagree on this also?  

edit:

Why is that metric more important to quantifying the bubble than things volume, media coverage, and hype within the community (or the aggregate data of those metrics combined)?

All those must be compared with the current ecosystem.

I don't care if the volume is 10 times bigger if there's a hundred times more way to use Bitcoin.


edit 2:

All those "metrics" mean nothing in a vacuum.
Is the USD in a bubble?
Daily volume is huuuuuge!
There's also a massive media coverage and hype in the community.

[evolve]

Yes I think we are.

Very much so, in fact (and in multiple ways).

[Frozenlock]

No? Setting aside percentage (because we are not going to agree on where the bubbles began), look at the volume between 2011 and 2013.   Look at media coverage in 2011 vs 2013.  Look at the hype on this forum in 2011 vs 2013.

How exactly was the bubble bigger in 2011?  I honestly don't see it.



volume chart and closing price for reference:

I prefer to look at prices (and pretty much everything) with a log scale:



2011 seems bigger and steeper. 

Anyhow, how deep we go will probably settle this.
Let's necro this thread in a year!

[protokol]

Surely there is an "absolute" bottom that cannot be breached,

Yup. That number would be zero.

Note the quotation marks. I didn't give a time reference (Bitcoin will probably not be worth anything in 20-200 years), but mid term Bitcoin will never go to zero barring a catastrophic flaw in the protocol, or if TOR, SHA256 and PGP are all compromised in the near future. I reckon the chances of this are a million to one at least, with the a weakness in the protocol being by far the more likely option.

Still, I think that >$30 coins are highly improbable.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

(2011 price / 2011 ecosystem)  > (2013 price / 2013 ecosystem)

Are we going to disagree on this also?  

Actually, I looked at some metrics yesterday, and if you look at bitcoin purely from the "medium of exchange" point of view, so various metrics normalized versus the number of transactions, the 2013 bubble was a lot bubblier, and we are still very much overvalued. 

However, I have believed from the start (had some discussions about this with E. Mucus) that people would feel safer and safer to keep their bitcoins around, and it would start serving more as a store of value, and from the data, there certainly is a case to be made for this as well. 

PS: I also think that you should look at the price in log terms.

[Rampion]

Difficult to say when the bubble started exactly.

Things got some steam for sure when we reached $20, there was a lot of positive media attention regarding how "the hacker currency" was steadily raising.

Then the shit definitely hit the fan when we broke $32, the media attention at that point ("BTC is going up uP UP!") was continuous and there the growth trend went insane.

[SGExodus]

Judging from the fact that in 2012, the market have no problem buying all the 7200 produce bitcoins per day at double digit,  there is no reason that bitcoin price can go back to single digit value now that the production per day has been cut by half.

Unless there is a serious vulnerability to the bitcoin network, such as IBM shipping quantum computers in large volume, I don't think we will go any lower than $25 till 2017

[sarc]

I think it's 50:50 that it'll reach single figures.

This bubble seems to be about the same size as the 2011 one -

2011 $30 dollars at peak instead of $2.50ish by my reckoning (12 fold increase on growth estimate )
2013 $266 dollars at peak instead of $21ish (12.5 fold increase).

If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression. 

I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....

[Frozenlock]

If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression. 

I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....

There's a difference.
In 2011, when the bubble popped, there was nothing to compare to.
Was it the end of Bitcoin?

Now (almost) everyone is expecting a crash and a new rise, just like 2011.

[samson]

If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression. 

I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....

There's a difference.
In 2011, when the bubble popped, there was nothing to compare to.
Was it the end of Bitcoin?

Now (almost) everyone is expecting a crash and a new rise, just like 2011.

Which is why I suspect it will only go down to about $20

[sarc]

If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression.  

I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....

There's a difference.
In 2011, when the bubble popped, there was nothing to compare to.
Was it the end of Bitcoin?

Now (almost) everyone is expecting a crash and a new rise, just like 2011.

Maybe, but for the moment I'm betting it'll be a more visceral (and uninformed) response to the deflation that drives the lows. Bids will go back through fear, greed and over-excitement.

[Kouye]

im single digit fan, i think real bitcoin value is 3$=1BTC

You guys are so depressing.
Just quit comparing BTC to $, even if they're still tradable.
Consider BTC like another step towards individual freedom.
BTC does not need to be traded to $, the king of money laundering fiat. Keep your dirty $. We keep the BTC.

Repeat that simple poem:
Fuck governments. Fuck banks. Get the power.

Help BTC rise or... watch and die.