The coming flash crash in AMC

[Entropy-uc]

So Ken's big announcement is out, and his pump and dump is failing.

He needs to sell another 3 Million shares at 0.0025 to raise the money he is going to gift to VMC, his privately held company, for chip NRE.  But Bitcoiners aren't buying a $25 Million dollar valuation for a $300k company.  So the party is over for Ken right?

Wrong.  Shortly he is going to hit all the bids on BTCT.co and Bitfunder so that he can give himself that million dollar gift.

How do I know?  Well if you read his contracts, you would know too.

From the summary page on Bitfunder:

Notes On The IPO:

As long as AMC does not sell it's shares below 0.0005 then they may do as they please with their shares. It is their company, their ownership, and their shares.

During the IPO, not all shares may be posted as an ASK.

So expect Ken to start hitting bids, and keep hitting them all the way down to 0.0005 if that's what he needs to do.  Because who wouldn't when every dollar they raise goes to benefit their company rather than the company they are selling the shares in?

[ThickAsThieves]

The sad thing is that this could happen without any involvement from Ken at all.

1. Day 1 of the BTCT IPO saw share price drop below sale price. This has now provided opportunity for any bidder to buy low and sell high, creating a slowly lowering ceiling of asks.
2. Bitfunder shareholders are staring down an opportunity to flip their shares for 200-300% profit. You'd have to be insane to skip that opportunity. The more people realize this, the more the share price could push back down to .0005-.0008

These situations thus create an even more pressing choice for Ken to start selling into high bids while he can.

Even more twisted, is that it is more likely he will use this week's raised funds to buy up sub-.0025 shares instead, in an attempt to manipulate the price back into his wall at .0025

End result?

Likely only 1 of 2 outcomes here.

1. Ken MUST sell shares below .0025 going forward
2. Idiots MUST trust Ken enough to buy up every single share at .0025 to have any hope of it being the new norm.

[usagi]

So Ken's big announcement is out, and his pump and dump is failing.

He needs to sell another 3 Million shares at 0.0025 to raise the money he is going to gift to VMC, his privately held company, for chip NRE.  But Bitcoiners aren't buying a $25 Million dollar valuation for a $300k company.  So the party is over for Ken right?

Wrong.  Shortly he is going to hit all the bids on BTCT.co and Bitfunder so that he can give himself that million dollar gift.

How do I know?  Well if you read his contracts, you would know too.

From the summary page on Bitfunder:

Notes On The IPO:

As long as AMC does not sell it's shares below 0.0005 then they may do as they please with their shares. It is their company, their ownership, and their shares.

During the IPO, not all shares may be posted as an ASK.

So expect Ken to start hitting bids, and keep hitting them all the way down to 0.0005 if that's what he needs to do.  Because who wouldn't when every dollar they raise goes to benefit their company rather than the company they are selling the shares in?

Good work, I clearly misjudged your capacity for analysis.

So, while this clearly hurts existing shareholders, anyone who has read the contract like you could have shorted or waited it out until the crash and then invested. My question to you now is, do you think AMC is a worthwhile investment at 0.0005? At what price is it a reasonable investment, 1x book? 1x forward earnings?

[Surprise]

Many prophets of doom yet no one is selling me call options... I am willing to negotiate on all details if someone wants to send me a counter offer...

[ronaldlee0917]

They should just merge VMC and AMC, using the money of AMC's shareholders to fund another separate company does not make much sense to me, loan made to startup is too huge of a risk to ignore and they didn't mention this until the recent announcement. People buying the walls @0.0025 are essentially lending their money to VMC, a separate entity to AMC, which means they aren't investing in the company they apparently are putting their money into. I can't predict whether the price will rise or fall, but I feel completely betrayed, so I decided to exit with a fairly satisfactory profit instead of putting my money at stake.

[Entropy-uc]

They should just merge VMC and AMC, using the money of AMC's shareholders to fund another separate company does not make much sense to me, loan made to startup is too huge of a risk to ignore and they didn't mention this until the recent announcement. People buying the walls @0.0025 are essentially lending their money to VMC, a separate entity to AMC, which means they aren't investing in the company they apparently are putting their money into. I can't predict whether the price will rise or fall, but I feel completely betrayed, speaking of a former shareholder, so I decided to exit with a fairly satisfactory profit instead of putting my money at stake.

Smart move.  The shell company structure is designed to benefit Ken and no one else.  I don't even understand why the listing was allowed.

There a lots of epic statements in the company contracts.  Like the copy/paste error that makes a completely unrelated (?) company arbitrator for any disputes.  Or this little gem: "AMC is a wholly owned subsidiary of VMC".  Wholly owned?  Then what are you buying with these shares?

[Entropy-uc]

So Ken's big announcement is out, and his pump and dump is failing.

He needs to sell another 3 Million shares at 0.0025 to raise the money he is going to gift to VMC, his privately held company, for chip NRE.  But Bitcoiners aren't buying a $25 Million dollar valuation for a $300k company.  So the party is over for Ken right?

Wrong.  Shortly he is going to hit all the bids on BTCT.co and Bitfunder so that he can give himself that million dollar gift.

How do I know?  Well if you read his contracts, you would know too.

From the summary page on Bitfunder:

Notes On The IPO:

As long as AMC does not sell it's shares below 0.0005 then they may do as they please with their shares. It is their company, their ownership, and their shares.

During the IPO, not all shares may be posted as an ASK.

So expect Ken to start hitting bids, and keep hitting them all the way down to 0.0005 if that's what he needs to do.  Because who wouldn't when every dollar they raise goes to benefit their company rather than the company they are selling the shares in?

Good work, I clearly misjudged your capacity for analysis.

So, while this clearly hurts existing shareholders, anyone who has read the contract like you could have shorted or waited it out until the crash and then invested. My question to you now is, do you think AMC is a worthwhile investment at 0.0005? At what price is it a reasonable investment, 1x book? 1x forward earnings?

I think that in general, 2-3 x book would be compelling for a venture like this.

But AMC has multiple, never touch, dealbreakers:

1) IP rights go to VMC not AMC, so you really own nothing for the risk
2) Ken has manipulated share prices - do not trust
3) Ken seriously estimated he would earn more Bitcoin than the protocol allows for in 1 year - proof of incompetence or fraud, take your pick
4) Ken knows squat about semiconductors
5) Ken is domiciled in the United States.  This makes him a fat stupid target for the SEC.  Your investment disappears when the guys in black suits arrive at his door.

[lysr]

latest price = 0.0012
50% drop within a single day!
Will it go back to the IPO price?
Oh, I've forgot the IPO is not technically over, so that is totally possible.

[Deprived]

SSo, while this clearly hurts existing shareholders, anyone who has read the contract like you could have shorted or waited it out until the crash and then invested. My question to you now is, do you think AMC is a worthwhile investment at 0.0005? At what price is it a reasonable investment, 1x book? 1x forward earnings?

It's not a worthwhile investment at all.

The cash raised is mainly being loaned to VM which is totally owed by Ken.  If everything works well then at best they get back 10% of the profit made with their capital.  But VMC gets to decide what is profit - so Ken can skim off even more by paying himself a wage from VMC.

To make ANY profit on this $1 million Ken has to make over $1 million profit selling sub-standard ASICs that won't even be delivered until early next year.  That's not a good investment at pretty much any price - even below the .005 initial IPO.

You can't value it based on book - as its main assets will be debt from a dodgy company with no assets (VMC).  You can't value it based on forward earnings as there almost certainly won't be any from the $1 million.  The small earnings from a handful of Avalons are just dust in comparison.

Remember this is the guy whose first projections had AMC mining more bitcoins per day than get generated in total - so relying on any predictions he makes would be daft.

AMC's great for flipping shares on but don't get caught holding them when the dust settles.

[bbxx]

I hope he didnt cash out all btc he got from community.

[kslaughter]

So Ken's big announcement is out, and his pump and dump is failing.

He needs to sell another 3 Million shares at 0.0025 to raise the money he is going to gift to VMC, his privately held company, for chip NRE.  But Bitcoiners aren't buying a $25 Million dollar valuation for a $300k company.  So the party is over for Ken right?

Wrong.  Shortly he is going to hit all the bids on BTCT.co and Bitfunder so that he can give himself that million dollar gift.

How do I know?  Well if you read his contracts, you would know too.

From the summary page on Bitfunder:

Notes On The IPO:

As long as AMC does not sell it's shares below 0.0005 then they may do as they please with their shares. It is their company, their ownership, and their shares.

During the IPO, not all shares may be posted as an ASK.

So expect Ken to start hitting bids, and keep hitting them all the way down to 0.0005 if that's what he needs to do.  Because who wouldn't when every dollar they raise goes to benefit their company rather than the company they are selling the shares in?

We do not need to sale any more shares to fund the chip, see spreadsheet below:

[auto2nr1]

They should just merge VMC and AMC, using the money of AMC's shareholders to fund another separate company does not make much sense to me, loan made to startup is too huge of a risk to ignore and they didn't mention this until the recent announcement. People buying the walls @0.0025 are essentially lending their money to VMC, a separate entity to AMC, which means they aren't investing in the company they apparently are putting their money into. I can't predict whether the price will rise or fall, but I feel completely betrayed, speaking of a former shareholder, so I decided to exit with a fairly satisfactory profit instead of putting my money at stake.

Smart move.  The shell company structure is designed to benefit Ken and no one else.  I don't even understand why the listing was allowed.

There a lots of epic statements in the company contracts.  Like the copy/paste error that makes a completely unrelated (?) company arbitrator for any disputes.  Or this little gem: "AMC is a wholly owned subsidiary of VMC".  Wholly owned?  Then what are you buying with these shares?

I am a shareholder of AMC and i think the same. I addressed this here just recently.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158806.msg2606230#msg2606230

What do you guys think? There's a lot of text in the company's contract with the shareholder which is a complete waste.

[EskimoBob]

I hope you guys are starting to understand why balance sheets etc are important stuff BEFORE the IPO and also after the IPO.
Only you can put the pressure on issuers and exchanges.

[Birdy]

It has begun

[Ozymandias]

Many prophets of doom yet no one is selling me call options... I am willing to negotiate on all details if someone wants to send me a counter offer...

Check your thread please, the option is listed on btct.

[Entropy-uc]

"He who panics first, panics best."

From Ken's own data above, AMC only has at best, BTC6 000 to support a market cap of BTC200 000.  And that is before you account for his plan to make a no recourse, zero interest loan to himself of BTC10 000.

It's going to be a long painful death for holders of this mess.

[Factory]

It's going to be a long painful death for holders of this mess.

Did you honestly expect anything less?

[burnside]

It's going to be a long painful death for holders of this mess.

Did you honestly expect anything less?

I expected burnside to examine the self dealing built into the stock, which guarantees loses for everyone but the owner of VMC and reject the listing.

Since that didn't happen, people are going to learn the expensive way.

Sometimes I wish I was the only gatekeeper.  It's better though that I am not, I was wrong on so many different things back in the GLBSE days that I when I setup btct.co I knew I needed to get other people involved somehow.  I really hope they're right on this one.

[Entropy-uc]

So Ken's big announcement is out, and his pump and dump is failing.

He needs to sell another 3 Million shares at 0.0025 to raise the money he is going to gift to VMC, his privately held company, for chip NRE.  But Bitcoiners aren't buying a $25 Million dollar valuation for a $300k company.  So the party is over for Ken right?

Wrong.  Shortly he is going to hit all the bids on BTCT.co and Bitfunder so that he can give himself that million dollar gift.

How do I know?  Well if you read his contracts, you would know too.

From the summary page on Bitfunder:

Notes On The IPO:

As long as AMC does not sell it's shares below 0.0005 then they may do as they please with their shares. It is their company, their ownership, and their shares.

During the IPO, not all shares may be posted as an ASK.

So expect Ken to start hitting bids, and keep hitting them all the way down to 0.0005 if that's what he needs to do.  Because who wouldn't when every dollar they raise goes to benefit their company rather than the company they are selling the shares in?

We do not need to sale any more shares to fund the chip, see spreadsheet below:

Since you don't need any more money, you are going to close the IPO, withdraw your ASKs, retire all the unneeded shares, and remove the IPO terms from your company contract right?

Any rational businessman would stop selling equity once his capital needs are filled.

Except if his business was selling shares in a worthless company, that is...

[hak8or]

Sometimes I wish I was the only gatekeeper.  It's better though that I am not, I was wrong on so many different things back in the GLBSE days that I when I setup btct.co I knew I needed to get other people involved somehow.  I really hope they're right on this one.

Are there any plans or thoughts so that in the future any companies or other entities which wish to be put on your exchange will be required to be vetted first? Or will it continue to be a wild west sort of situation still?