.

[chodpaba]

.

[vokain]

how do you measure volume with so many different exchanges and with mtgox not behaving normally?

[vokain]

is obv sloping up or down now?

[vokain]

is obv sloping up or down now?

The indicator I am watching is sloping down slightly, but it is darn near flat. By no means indicates that the price decline is sustainable.

yes, have you seen this? cheapest coins are getting more and more expensive as time goes on. Full on isometric triangle as far as I can tell
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245385.msg2601338#msg2601338

[Spekulatius]

ATM A/C is up, OBV is down. What do you make of it?

[vokain]

^ up

[Dalib]

is obv sloping up or down now?

The indicator I am watching is sloping down slightly, but it is darn near flat. By no means indicates that the price decline is sustainable.

yes, have you seen this? cheapest coins are getting more and more expensive as time goes on. Full on isometric triangle as far as I can tell
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245385.msg2601338#msg2601338

yes, but last low was $ 93 (June), now we 93 $ (92.25).

This trend is breaking just now  

 

[byronbb]

The market's manipulators (bad called: market's creators) are compriming the price. They are pressurizing it into one special deposit, the pressured triangle, but it's almost full. When the deposit will be full, the manipulators will open the fawcet and then the price will leave it with a high pressure.
This moment of full deposit is very near: today (it seems that not will be), tomorrow, or better , the saturday (without less people keeping guard of it, is more easy to move the price)
I have publish one chart with my opinion of the future resolution of the pressured deposit. You can see it below. I suggest it.
Another possibilty is "the aspersion effect" , one very big bussines for the manipulators, but very dangerous for the begginers. The price goes down and up or up and down very fast.
Is not suggested to be in the market in those moments of opening fawcets. But is possible to follow the manipulators in a short time of periods (5m,15m) and feet the trend line very near. Be carefull and quick.
Sorry for my english.


Thoughts on this?

[derpinheimer]

Well, have we left it now? We're well under the dollar pressure point right now.

[Artofficial]

http://rldinvestments.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Emotional-chart1.jpg

Funny you should ask.

[vokain]

Having been through panic and capitulation twice before, I'm too conditioned to know where we are at this point in time. Perhaps someone better calibrated can chime in with their input?

My guess is still fear, or hope

[byronbb]

Well, have we left it now? We're well under the dollar pressure point right now.

We did see quite the swings on the 25th. Just an interesting thought that if you can set up huge moves two ways you can trigger leveraged short/long positions to have a reflexive effect.

[Adrian-x]

I remember May 2012.
It was like being in Purgatory, 1/3 happy to be up from $2; 1/3 happy to have a stable price; and 1/3 deluded by there folly ( the  thought )  Bitcoin would take off.

Months of flatness that proceeded a rise after an anticipate TV events that would bring Bitcoin to the masses.

That market in my view attracted a small niche investors, tech savvy and a bear when looking at the economy.

The event that triggered the rise was anticipation of difficulty halving.(driven by those already invested in Bitcoin)

The new blood that fed the growth IMO was new big money coming in. The needed distribution to the masses only happened in the runup to the 2013 bubble.

So I think the OP is on the money but I think the next price hike will come with trigger event (something new).
Until then demand at this level isn't coming from the new mass investors but niche tech savvy economically literate investors.
Demand from those already invested is also slow as we are an order of magnitude or 2 above their initially entry.

So I think Bitcoin is going to slide down slowly, and as a results attract new (innovator) investors, while the established innovators secure the ecosystem.

[oda.krell]

You certainly sound sure for someone who essentially said that he has some (volume-based) evidence that we are close to or slightly below an equilibrium.

How about this:

Let's say -- I'm painting in broad strokes here -- there are two driving forces behind the price: a large group, can I call them "us"?, trying to find a way to predict where the price is going, more accurate and slightly earlier than the others in that group, and a smaller group, "them", doing the same thing as the previous one, while also being able to influence the price development, to a degree, on their own.

So maybe there's a pattern that looks like the price is being held down since late April? May? Or maybe not, and what looks like intent is just reaction. But let's say for a moment it is intent. Then why does this method even work? Perhaps they can lead the price to where they want it to go, but they can only do so if the rest of us complies.

And we do. Sure, there's fantastic news out there. Great prospects on the horizon. it's as disruptive as any technology has been since, I don't know, mechanical printing. But there's still that blank stare (or, only slightly better, that condescending smile) when you tell your family about bitcoin.

And as long as that's still the case, there will be an element of uncertainty in almost everyone who holds or held bitcoin. We have very little evidence to say where exactly we are right now in the world changing event that we believe bitcoin adoption will eventually be.

And because of that, left to our own devices, there is little volume or direction. So we are being lead.

Way too many words to basically say: I think it's useless in the current situation to make predictions that go much further than, say, a week.

[vokain]

What I can see is that demand has been lagging supply by a small, fairly consistent amount since about May 4th. So small, and so consistent that it appears to me to be something that is being actively managed. This is not something that can be undertaken profitably for the long term, particularly if price starts dropping below what the regression shows to be a demand equilibrium (the lower of the two). When that happens, pent up demand builds.

I expect this lag in price can be explained by the manner in which liquidity has been impacted on Gox. Once that situation is corrected I don't want to be on the wrong side of that trade. Bears have made the case that USD will flee Gox once withdrawals can be made reliably routine... My expectation is that the opposite will happen. That once confidence about being able to manage liquidity returns, the deposits will come rolling in.

Personally I chose not to wire money last week to mtgox because of the possibility they don't open up withdrawals, not to mention the inflated prices. To Bitstamp it went.

[vokain]

That is the dynamic that is causing price to fall on Gox, and consequently everywhere else, since everyone is correlated to Gox.

But this is in the form of pent up demand. You can tell by the way the bull-bears are salivating.

Agree wholeheartedly. We all want Bitcoins, but at a cheaper price. Who's going to be the one that pays more than the next guy at the tipping point? Bull vs bear as usual

[oda.krell]

[...]

I expect this lag in price can be explained by the manner in which liquidity has been impacted on Gox. Once that situation is corrected I don't want to be on the wrong side of that trade. Bears have made the case that USD will flee Gox once withdrawals can be made reliably routine... My expectation is that the opposite will happen. That once confidence about being able to manage liquidity returns, the deposits will come rolling in.

I'm not disagreeing with that part. I'm just sceptical this event will translate automatically into a mid-term trend reversal.

[Malawi]

Funny you should ask.

I think we are just passing denial and going into pessimism.

Note how the posts with "We will bounce right back to $150 and beyond", and the denial that we are in a bear market have begun to fade away.

[vokain]

[img]

Funny you should ask.

I think we are just passing denial and going into pessimism.

Note how the posts with "We will bounce right back to $150 and beyond", and the denial that we are in a bear market have begun to fade away.

so if we keep repeating it enough it must come true, right?

[Malawi]

[img]

Funny you should ask.

I think we are just passing denial and going into pessimism.

Note how the posts with "We will bounce right back to $150 and beyond", and the denial that we are in a bear market have begun to fade away.

so if we keep repeating it enough it must come true, right?

Absolutely not. But it seems like the sentiment on the forum have changed quite a bit, and psychology is an important factor in BTC.
I'm thinking we are on a slide that will keep on sliding for some time, and that we will go back below $50. But I do not try to hide the fact that I could be wrong.

Code:

Name:	Malawi
Posts:	805
Activity:	98
Position:	Full Member
Date Registered:	April 08, 2013, 04:46:46 PM
Last Active:	Today at 01:54:52 AM

Not completely sure what you are trying to say here, but I guess it's that I'm a pretty fresh user. With the assumption that I cannot know where the market is going. I'm thinking that fresh eyes that are not blinded by BTC's past might be most likely to keep a more balanced view.