Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth?

[SEC agent]

Not if other countries tell you USAians to fuck yourselves in the arse.

Considering current international anti-money laundering treaties, that's not likely to happen soon (particularly with bitcoin).

[monkeybars]

A while back I saw a post that illustrated that since its inception the price of one Bitcoin has hit a rough benchmark baseline that it would never go below again every five months. The pattern was that every five months the lowest price would be twice what it was five months before. The post went through $8 and predicted that $16 would soon be the absolute lowest that BTC could go to.

In two years there are 24 months. Lets call that five periods of five months, because fuck it, this would mean that the price of one Bitcoin in two years would be $512 at the very minimum. (16*2*2*2*2*2)

If we are trading at a premium similar to what we are now (~$100:$16) the price would be about $3200.

Yet another reason I am thinking around 3k in 2 years time.

[vokain]

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

[BitChick]

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest.  BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.  Seems like a good gamble to me.    What are the odds really?  I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game.  Earlier on I would have said it was more like 20/80 or 10/90 that BTC would succeed.  Now is the time to get into for those that want less risk.  Why?  Bitcoin already has traction as the #1 cryptocurrency.  VCs are pouring money into it and there has been a decent amount of press and there are people already using it regularly.

[vokain]

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest.  BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.  Seems like a good gamble to me.    What are the odds really?  I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game.  Earlier on I would have said it was more like 20/80 or 10/90 that BTC would succeed.  Now is the time to get into for those that want less risk.  Why?  Bitcoin already has traction as the #1 cryptocurrency.  VCs are pouring money into it and there has been a decent amount of press and there are people already using it regularly.

and every day bitcoin exists nudges it closer and closer towards winning

[halfawake]

In two years?  I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are.  My bet is $200 - $500.  Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

[MAbtc]

If Bitcoin "goes to 0" it won't really be 0. It will always have trivial value as a collector's item!  

[vokain]

In two years?  I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are.  My bet is $200 - $500.  Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

[xristoskostouros]

if (USD<BTC) and (BTC>Market)
  {
  x="BTC Wins";
  }
else
  {
  x="BTC Loses";
  }

That simple. Really

[halfawake]

In two years?  I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are.  My bet is $200 - $500.  Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell.  I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

[jeannie]

My guess that it will be between $10000 - 100 000 if the Fed and the banks don't disrupt it

[vokain]

In two years?  I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are.  My bet is $200 - $500.  Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell.  I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

I'm just saying that's a way to get the price to $1000 quickly. Also, the same fear that runs along panic buying will do it (the getting left behind phobia + a dose of understanding of future dynamics).

[halfawake]

In two years?  I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are.  My bet is $200 - $500.  Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell.  I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

I'm just saying that's a way to get the price to $1000 quickly. Also, the same fear that runs along panic buying will do it (the getting left behind phobia + a dose of understanding of future dynamics).

Sure, people can panic buy the price to $1,000.  I wouldn't be surprised if it happens, but panic buy prices aren't sustainable.  What I was talking about is a sustainable increase in price, in other words getting there and not crashing down to $100 or $500, etc.

[vokain]

but they pave the way for the future. see panic buy to $32. once we grind to $266 again, I imagine further panic buying. At all times the market is searching for equilibrium prices.

[SEC agent]

BTC is either $0 or $100,000+. 

You people keep saying this, but its a false dilemma. There is no reason bitcoin couldn't hover around .00005 USD (only traded and used within the niche community), or continue to boom and bust, or whatever.

0 or 100,000 are not the only options.

[vokain]

BTC is either $0 or $100,000+. 

You people keep saying this, but its a false dilemma. There is no reason bitcoin couldn't hover around .00005 USD (only traded and used within the niche community), or continue to boom and bust, or whatever.

0 or 100,000 are not the only options.

Semantics. What's the difference between that arbitrarily low number to zero and zero for Bitcoin? not much

[SEC agent]

OK, it could hover around $1 or $10 or $50 then...the number isn't important, and you are completely missing the point.

[monkeybars]

My guess that it will be between $10000 - 100 000 if the Fed and the banks don't disrupt it

I'm fairly certain the Fed and banks will attempt to disrupt the BTC market as best they can. The beauty is, this will only strengthen Bitcoin, since people rightly have more trust in mathematics and technology than bankers. In fact, in the long term, the more (legislative, economic, technological) pressure the economic status quo exerts on Bitcoin, the greater effort the BTCommunity will devote to subverting them, resulting in overall stronger currency.

Bitcoin cannot be stopped, only laid aside. I'm a bull because I don't believe it will be laid aside.

[monkeybars]

it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

[Coinseeker]

Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth?

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