Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth?

[halfawake]

it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

You have a good point here, but the fact of the matter is that the bitcoin market is still fairly illiquid in that you can't buy or sell a lot of bitcoins without moving the price.  Interestingly, there's already a bitcoin fund for what's called qualified purchasers (people with $5+ million to invest) who buy and sell very carefully so as to not move the markets.  But I imagine you're right that the big hedge funds, private equity funds, etc are barely even looking at Bitcoin yet because it's so small that it's barely on their radar.

Then again, getting in now (or earlier) if bitcoin ends up being super successful, is how to make a lot of money since if bitcoin truly succeeds, the long term prices will be in the thousands of dollars.

[monkeybars]

it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

You have a good point here, but the fact of the matter is that the bitcoin market is still fairly illiquid in that you can't buy or sell a lot of bitcoins without moving the price.  Interestingly, there's already a bitcoin fund for what's called qualified purchasers (people with $5+ million to invest) who buy and sell very carefully so as to not move the markets.  But I imagine you're right that the big hedge funds, private equity funds, etc are barely even looking at Bitcoin yet because it's so small that it's barely on their radar.

Then again, getting in now (or earlier) if bitcoin ends up being super successful, is how to make a lot of money since if bitcoin truly succeeds, the long term prices will be in the thousands of dollars.

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

[johnyj]

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

True, in 2 years, the real problem might comes from the governments being insolvent, and the collapsing of goverment bonds. To keep that amount of huge pile of bonds afloat, 10x more money must be printed, when that happens, the only safe heaven is bitcoin

[derpinheimer]

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

True, in 2 years, the real problem might comes from the governments being insolvent, and the collapsing of goverment bonds. To keep that amount of huge pile of bonds afloat, 10x more money must be printed, when that happens, the only safe heaven is bitcoin

Until the lights go out..

[naima53]

$ 868,3

[halfawake]

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

Considering that Tuur Demeester calculated in a presentation for the Bitcoin 2013 that a bitcoin would have a value of $500,000 if it takes over as the world reserve currency, I very much doubt it'll ever be in the millions.  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LQu-eIOO0&list=PLUOP0P68GJ3BGjfqoLLnzAefk3ZzXQtJ7&index=9 for the presentation.

[monkeybars]

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

Considering that Tuur Demeester calculated in a presentation for the Bitcoin 2013 that a bitcoin would have a value of $500,000 if it takes over as the world reserve currency, I very much doubt it'll ever be in the millions.  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LQu-eIOO0&list=PLUOP0P68GJ3BGjfqoLLnzAefk3ZzXQtJ7&index=9 for the presentation.

I propose that not only will it comprise the world's reserve currency, but it will comprise a very significant percentage of the world's active currency in use. I estimate that the active bitcoins will level out at about six times the value of the reserves held in the world. Using Demeester's numbers (which I agree with), this calculates to 3.5M per BTC.

Also, I'm not making predictions about a bitcoin's future value in 2013 dollars, but the actual exchange rate.

[halfawake]

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

Considering that Tuur Demeester calculated in a presentation for the Bitcoin 2013 that a bitcoin would have a value of $500,000 if it takes over as the world reserve currency, I very much doubt it'll ever be in the millions.  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LQu-eIOO0&list=PLUOP0P68GJ3BGjfqoLLnzAefk3ZzXQtJ7&index=9 for the presentation.

I propose that not only will it comprise the world's reserve currency, but it will comprise a very significant percentage of the world's active currency in use. I estimate that the active bitcoins will level out at about six times the value of the reserves held in the world. Using Demeester's numbers (which I agree with), this calculates to 3.5M per BTC.

Also, I'm not making predictions about a bitcoin's future value in 2013 dollars, but the actual exchange rate.

I hope you're right.  We'll all be very rich if your prediction comes true.  I'd be surprised if it ends up being a true world currency like you're proposing it will, but hey, it can't hurt to dream.

[monkeybars]

I'd be surprised if it ends up being a true world currency like you're proposing it will

Why?

[halfawake]

I'd be surprised if it ends up being a true world currency like you're proposing it will

Why?

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

[Peter Lambert]

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest.  BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.  Seems like a good gamble to me.    What are the odds really?  I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game. 

By this logic you should put all your money in lottery tickets. Either you win or you lose at the lottery, so that's about 50/50 chance of getting a million dollars!

 

I'd be surprised if it ends up being a true world currency like you're proposing it will

Why?

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

There will still be fiat currencies hanging around when Bitcoin is mainstream, just like there will still be bitcoins hanging around used by a few hard core geeks in the situation when the price drops close to zero and everybody else has abandoned the project.

[julius]

Between  1000$ and 2500$

[flipperfish]

And that is the reason people should invest.  BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.  Seems like a good gamble to me.    What are the odds really?  I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game. 

By this logic you should put all your money in lottery tickets. Either you win or you lose at the lottery, so that's about 50/50 chance of getting a million dollars!

A lottery ticket doesn't have 50/50 chance of winning. It's rather something like 1/100.000.000. But I think you know that. 

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

But a government is not an abstract entity sitting somewhere in a capital city and making plans how to hold onto its power. Governments are made up by people and if these people find it more profitable to use bitcoin than to destroy it, they will do exactly that.

I think most people underestimate how many people there are out there, who like to use bitcoin for things they can't even imagine. And most people also understimate how long it takes for someone who does not have the right background on cryptography, comp sci and economics to truly understand the power of bitcoin.

[BitChick]

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest.  BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.  Seems like a good gamble to me.    What are the odds really?  I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game.  

By this logic you should put all your money in lottery tickets. Either you win or you lose at the lottery, so that's about 50/50 chance of getting a million dollars!

 

If people had a 50/50 chance to win a million dollars in the lottery, you better believe more tickets would be sold!  That is how I look at BTC.  Maybe it is a little crazy but to me it is like betting with really good odds.  It is a whole lot better than 1/1,000,000 anyways!

[mp420]

I'm going to guess $70 and slowly increasing.

[monkeybars]

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

For a 51% attack, an organization would first need to ramp up their mining operation gradually. (I wouldn't be surprised if they already are.) If they didn't, the massive jump in mining volume would alert the community to the attacker's presence and make an attack easily reversible. This takes time, and time means the market grows (imo). The bigger the market, the more miners are attracted to invest, and the faster processors get. This makes such an attack even more difficult to pull off; not to mention that the central bank attackers would be making profit through all this and may decide the profit is more valuable than control before an attack is instantiated.

Creating that large of a mining operation, even over a period of say 18 months, would be very, very difficult from the supply side. The attacker would need to set up manufacturing chains to create the rig network. Chains of that scale are challenging, if not impossible, to hide, not to mention all the loyal engineers that will be needed to set it all up and oversee. Leaking would be a real risk.

In any case, such an attack is trivial to detect quickly and while it can't easily be prevented, it can be recovered from, with some possible collateral damage. I wouldn't be surprised at all if many government central banks colluded on a 51% attack at some point. They'd better get cracking though; the longer they wait, the more expensive it will be.

So, a 51% attack would not "shut down" Bitcoin. It would merely be a speedbump.

[Tisko]

1 mBTC will be worth 4.20€

[halfawake]

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

But a government is not an abstract entity sitting somewhere in a capital city and making plans how to hold onto its power. Governments are made up by people and if these people find it more profitable to use bitcoin than to destroy it, they will do exactly that.

I think most people underestimate how many people there are out there, who like to use bitcoin for things they can't even imagine. And most people also understimate how long it takes for someone who does not have the right background on cryptography, comp sci and economics to truly understand the power of bitcoin.

Profit is exactly the reason I think governments would want to eventually take down bitcoin.  By profit, I mean taxes.  It's much harder to tax people with a completely bitcoin based economy than it is with a dollar, yen, etc based economy, at least with the case of income taxes.  Sales taxes wouldn't really be much, if at all, more difficult than the current system.  I actually would prefer a sales-tax based economy over an income tax system, except for the fact that it's regressive.

[halfawake]

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

For a 51% attack, an organization would first need to ramp up their mining operation gradually. (I wouldn't be surprised if they already are.) If they didn't, the massive jump in mining volume would alert the community to the attacker's presence and make an attack easily reversible. This takes time, and time means the market grows (imo). The bigger the market, the more miners are attracted to invest, and the faster processors get. This makes such an attack even more difficult to pull off; not to mention that the central bank attackers would be making profit through all this and may decide the profit is more valuable than control before an attack is instantiated.

Creating that large of a mining operation, even over a period of say 18 months, would be very, very difficult from the supply side. The attacker would need to set up manufacturing chains to create the rig network. Chains of that scale are challenging, if not impossible, to hide, not to mention all the loyal engineers that will be needed to set it all up and oversee. Leaking would be a real risk.

In any case, such an attack is trivial to detect quickly and while it can't easily be prevented, it can be recovered from, with some possible collateral damage. I wouldn't be surprised at all if many government central banks colluded on a 51% attack at some point. They'd better get cracking though; the longer they wait, the more expensive it will be.

So, a 51% attack would not "shut down" Bitcoin. It would merely be a speedbump.

Oh, I absolutely agree with you.  It wouldn't necessarily be easy.  Actually, I do know of a relatively foolproof technique governments could employ to do this without it being possible to recover control, but I do want Bitcoin to succeed so I'm not going to lay out the details on a public forum.

[DoomDumas]

0.18$ since US closed all exchange markets and you cant sell them or buy them.

This sounds accurate.

But the US is not the center of the universe.  So, if this is the case, then the rest of the world will have BTC and the US will become a third world country.

+1

Indeed.. Decline if an empire !