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Author Topic: Now the time to buy more hardware?  (Read 3997 times)
Chick
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June 30, 2011, 07:55:09 AM
 #1

I've already broke even with my 2 mining rigs (4 5830s).

Is it a good time to buy 2 more mining rigs? Considering that I would have double the hashing power now? (2.5 ghash now, 5 ghash with double hardware)

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June 30, 2011, 08:05:05 AM
 #2

Well when did you buy those 2 original rigs?

I don't know, why don't you calculate the cost and projected return? Go for a worst case scenario of 60% difficulty increases every 7-10 days and $15 per BTC. If you are fine even if that happens then sure, buy rigs Cheesy

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June 30, 2011, 08:21:18 AM
 #3

Well when did you buy those 2 original rigs?

I don't know, why don't you calculate the cost and projected return? Go for a worst case scenario of 60% difficulty increases every 7-10 days and $15 per BTC. If you are fine even if that happens then sure, buy rigs Cheesy
[/quote

Don't remember exactly, around a month or two ago.

I have other uses for them too, like doing folding@home and then showing off my e-penix score. Tongue

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June 30, 2011, 11:07:25 AM
 #4

Hmm, well, maybe. The difficulty seems to be stabilizing, and a lot of people are trying to get out at the moment because they're scared, meaning cheap cards. The situation could change at any time, though. There are no absolutes when it comes to bitcoin mining or speculation.

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June 30, 2011, 11:30:54 AM
 #5

Hmm, well, maybe. The difficulty seems to be stabilizing, and a lot of people are trying to get out at the moment because they're scared, meaning cheap cards. The situation could change at any time, though. There are no absolutes when it comes to bitcoin mining or speculation.

Some people may be "scared" and trying to get out, or maybe can just extrapolate into the future a month or two and see we won't be doing anything really useful with bitcoin.  It's also a survival of the fittest game.  The fittest get their electricity for 10c/kWh or cheaper, or just steal it.

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June 30, 2011, 11:38:44 AM
 #6

Hmm, well, maybe. The difficulty seems to be stabilizing, and a lot of people are trying to get out at the moment because they're scared, meaning cheap cards. The situation could change at any time, though. There are no absolutes when it comes to bitcoin mining or speculation.

Some people may be "scared" and trying to get out, or maybe can just extrapolate into the future a month or two and see we won't be doing anything really useful with bitcoin.  It's also a survival of the fittest game.  The fittest get their electricity for 10c/kWh or cheaper, or just steal it.
Won't be doing anything useful? Bitcoin is going places, and if you can't see that, you must be really narrow minded. Difficulty is stabilizing, and at the current difficulty and exchange rate, mining is still profitable for pretty much anyone with an ATI card.

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June 30, 2011, 11:50:42 AM
 #7

Don't. I don't want any further difficulty increases.
mike678
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June 30, 2011, 01:57:04 PM
 #8

Don't. I don't want any further difficulty increases.
Although I don't want to get difficulty increases Tongue now is probably the best time to invest in hardware because the difficulty has calmed down and expected income in a months time is much more predictable.
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June 30, 2011, 02:05:43 PM
 #9

Don't. I don't want any further difficulty increases.
Although I don't want to get difficulty increases Tongue now is probably the best time to invest in hardware because the difficulty has calmed down and expected income in a months time is much more predictable.
Problem is, the more people we have thinking this way, the less stable the difficulty will become Cheesy This is why we have people like Angelus spreading FUD, they're hoping to stop people from mining.

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June 30, 2011, 02:07:18 PM
 #10

Although I don't want to get difficulty increases Tongue now is probably the best time to invest in hardware because the difficulty has calmed down and expected income in a months time is much more predictable.
This can change at any moment. If the BTC/USD rate suddenly jumps to $30 again you will see lots of new miners joining and others turning their rigs back on (if they haven'd dismantled yet). That will make the difficulty rise again.

I'm afraid, with rising prices always comes rising difficulty. Days or weeks behind, but that's how it is.

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June 30, 2011, 04:02:28 PM
 #11

I don't think now is the time...  Things are starting to turn, but it's not there yet.  Once you see difficulty going down and video cards in stock on all the major retailer sites, then it will be time to scoop up GPUs for next to nothing.  Right now you'd be buying from the first wave of sellers that are cashing out their rigs before the bloodbath begins...

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June 30, 2011, 04:33:39 PM
 #12

Don't. I don't want any further difficulty increases.
Although I don't want to get difficulty increases Tongue now is probably the best time to invest in hardware because the difficulty has calmed down and expected income in a months time is much more predictable.

How has difficulty calmed down? The latest estimate from bitcoincharts is below and whenever we have just raised difficulty it is calm but we get close to changing difficulty it shoots up again.

Difficulty   1379223
Estimated   1538991
mike678
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June 30, 2011, 05:02:02 PM
 #13

Don't. I don't want any further difficulty increases.
Although I don't want to get difficulty increases Tongue now is probably the best time to invest in hardware because the difficulty has calmed down and expected income in a months time is much more predictable.

How has difficulty calmed down? The latest estimate from bitcoincharts is below and whenever we have just raised difficulty it is calm but we get close to changing difficulty it shoots up again.

Difficulty   1379223
Estimated   1538991
When I say calmed I mean its not going up by 50%. This is only about an 11% increase which when you look at previous increases in the last month is very low.
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June 30, 2011, 05:10:36 PM
 #14

I don't think now is the time...  Things are starting to turn, but it's not there yet.  Once you see difficulty going down and video cards in stock on all the major retailer sites, then it will be time to scoop up GPUs for next to nothing.  Right now you'd be buying from the first wave of sellers that are cashing out their rigs before the bloodbath begins...
Are you seriously recommending him to to buy when everyone else will be doing it? Did you really think that through? When difficulty starts going down, people will come back to mining in a heartbeat, and difficulty will skyrocket again.

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June 30, 2011, 05:40:41 PM
 #15

I don't think now is the time...  Things are starting to turn, but it's not there yet.  Once you see difficulty going down and video cards in stock on all the major retailer sites, then it will be time to scoop up GPUs for next to nothing.  Right now you'd be buying from the first wave of sellers that are cashing out their rigs before the bloodbath begins...
Are you seriously recommending him to to buy when everyone else will be doing it? Did you really think that through? When difficulty starts going down, people will come back to mining in a heartbeat, and difficulty will skyrocket again.

There is something to be said for being forward thinking, and there is something to be said for being too forward thinking.

As your quotee mentions, right now GPU prices are hyperinflated by people trying to cash out at high prices to make as much off bitcoin as possible. Starve them out, or let others buy in first, or even if difficulty stabilizes or drops a bit you will still not see a return on your investment. You always need to build efficiently, regardless of what point you want to buy in to bitcoin. I made my money back because my rigs produce about 2.4Mhash / $ invested on average. Many rigs today are closer to 1.1MHash/$, and those poor souls are the ones struggling to make back anything. If you start scooping up 5830s for $150+ you're going to find yourself struggling very badly, at ~1.3Mhash/$ around this difficulty.
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June 30, 2011, 05:47:35 PM
 #16

I don't think now is the time...  Things are starting to turn, but it's not there yet.  Once you see difficulty going down and video cards in stock on all the major retailer sites, then it will be time to scoop up GPUs for next to nothing.  Right now you'd be buying from the first wave of sellers that are cashing out their rigs before the bloodbath begins...
Are you seriously recommending him to to buy when everyone else will be doing it? Did you really think that through? When difficulty starts going down, people will come back to mining in a heartbeat, and difficulty will skyrocket again.

CNMOH - Your line of thinking is completely backwards... The difficulty drops BECAUSE people are getting out of mining. Until that happens, you won't see the deals on GPUs that the OP is looking for. Buying more right now is the way to "buy when everyone else will be doing it." If everyone else wasn't buying, you'd see them in stock on amazon and newegg. Understand yet?

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June 30, 2011, 06:41:06 PM
 #17

The network hashrate just stagnated for a few days, it's picking back up now. It's not like that hasn't happened like every couple difficulty jumps. Current projection may be for just a 12% difficulty jump, but that's just an 'instant' projection based on the recent average block solving speed. As the network speed increases over the next couple of days, by the time block 135072 comes around, the difficulty jump will probably reach 25-30%.
I'd guess difficulty will keep going up by 30-50% at least until  ~5 mil.

19Wsi1QNn7A9YHwbQsjXz4tWxdu72HQ8zM (just in case Smiley)
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June 30, 2011, 06:45:18 PM
 #18

There is something to be said for being forward thinking, and there is something to be said for being too forward thinking.

As your quotee mentions, right now GPU prices are hyperinflated by people trying to cash out at high prices to make as much off bitcoin as possible. Starve them out, or let others buy in first, or even if difficulty stabilizes or drops a bit you will still not see a return on your investment. You always need to build efficiently, regardless of what point you want to buy in to bitcoin. I made my money back because my rigs produce about 2.4Mhash / $ invested on average. Many rigs today are closer to 1.1MHash/$, and those poor souls are the ones struggling to make back anything. If you start scooping up 5830s for $150+ you're going to find yourself struggling very badly, at ~1.3Mhash/$ around this difficulty.
I agree partially. However, it shouldn't be too hard to get a good deal from someone you know that isn't aware of the whole bitcoin craze. Even if you don't, at the current difficulty it would take only take two months to break even... and if the difficulty goes crazy before then (likely) you can wait until things return to normal and then sell your card, ending up turning a profit.

Quote
CNMOH - Your line of thinking is completely backwards... The difficulty drops BECAUSE people are getting out of mining. Until that happens, you won't see the deals on GPUs that the OP is looking for. Buying more right now is the way to "buy when everyone else will be doing it." If everyone else wasn't buying, you'd see them in stock on amazon and newegg. Understand yet?
Yeah, uh... you don't seem to understand how this whole process works.

1. Difficulty goes down or price goes up
2. Everyone thinks mining while make them rich
3. Difficulty goes up
4. People start panic selling their cards
5. Repeat

As soon as difficulty starts heading down, people will want to get in again.

OgNasty
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June 30, 2011, 07:48:03 PM
 #19

Yeah, uh... you don't seem to understand how this whole process works.

1. Difficulty goes down or price goes up
2. Everyone thinks mining while make them rich
3. Difficulty goes up
4. People start panic selling their cards
5. Repeat

As soon as difficulty starts heading down, people will want to get in again.

You don't seem to understand how this whole process works...

1. Difficulty goes up or down based on the hashing rate of the network
2. People are greedy
3. Difficulty goes up
4. People are still greedy
5. Repeat

Until the cycle is broken and you see hashing rates decreasing, the GPU bloodbath will not begin.  Signs of this happening will start with major retailers having popular GPUs in stock and then hashing rates decreasing.  That is a long way off.  You claim people are panic selling their cards... I don't see that. I see people trying to cash in on their cards while they can still sell them for more than they paid due to the rush of buyers. Which further illustrates my point. When people are offering 5830s for below $75, then you can say people are panic selling... NOT HAPPENING YET. Sorry you are wrong.

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July 01, 2011, 01:46:31 AM
 #20

well i've seen a thread somewhere around here with difficulty predictions. Can't seem to find it ...

basically iirc it predicted 1.6m next difficulty (looks correct) and then its exponential growth again (3M+)

so prepare for a stampede...
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