Only small drops in mining difficulty, not seeing the logic here.

[timk225]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I'm not getting how this is working.  Bitcoin mining difficulty went from 1.45 exahash to 1.36 exahash, and now only fell to 1.34 exahash, despite a huge drop in mining speed.  The site itself predicts much bigger drops in difficulty, then it doesn't happen.  Dafuq?

[ImHash]

What is the confusion about? Are you asking why bitcoinwisdom said something would happen but it didn't happen? As far as I know bitcoin mining difficulty depends on miners, More hash power they have more difficulty, less hash power lower difficulty. BIG Wu is going back and forth with bitcoin cash and bitcoin

[timk225]

The hash rate has dropped significantly, as shown in the 504, 1008, and 2016 block moving averages.  Difficulty should have fallen by another 200 billion at least. 

[philipma1957]

Bitcoinwisdom is not accurate anymore.  We were running at -5 or -6.

My thread had accurate manual calculations showing the real numbers

[timk225]

Link to this thread?

[philipma1957]

Link to this thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2380524.0


this jump's real time diff is below


496196  (Main Chain)   2017-11-26 13:16:59
495940  (Main Chain)   2017-11-24 20:50:34




256 blocks      in  40 hours and 26 minutes


make that  40.5  easy math

40.5 x 6 = 243  for 0 % diff


so 256/243 = 1.05349


that is a 5.349% jump at the moment


bitcoinwisdom is so far off  it is sad.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,347,001,430,559
Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,236,856,451,144 (-8.18%)     
Adjust time:   After 1756 Blocks, About 14.8 days
Hashrate(?):   7,712,486,255 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 12.1 minutes
3 blocks: 36.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.2 hours
Updated:   



-8.18  is not close to +5.349


now I am real time number

they are a  future  number

but last two jumps they were far off  and I was close

[timk225]

Yeah, I just found it.  So what is your assessment of today's real difficulty numbers?  Bitcoin wisdom can't be right.

[philipma1957]

Yeah, I just found it.  So what is your assessment of today's real difficulty numbers?  Bitcoin wisdom can't be right.

look above  we are real time +5.3%


with BCC/BCH   in action it is no longer possible to predict  diff movement with any accuracy at all beyond the next jump

even the next jump is hard.

My real time number is good and I could do it for each and every block made if I was a good coder ,but I suck at coding  

If BCC/BCH  which is at 1600 usd jumps to 2500   BTC will drop in diff.

If BCC/BCH  stays at 1600 usd  and BTC cracks 10,000 BTC will jump in Diff.


So diff is much more locked into  the prices of BCC/BCH   and  BTC


as the ratio changes  Diff shifts.

Why mine BTC  with an s-9  if it is earning 20usd a day

when mining BCC/BCH with an s-9 is earning 30usd a day


and major pools  like viabtc or antpool  offer autoswitch between  the two.

So basically  all coins are Alt coins and old diff calcs like  bitcoinwisdom suck.

I mined 2.9 BCC/BCH  when it was 500 a coin  and I held them   they went from

1450 usd worth to 4640 usd worth I may take profits on them  soon