Bitcoin Power Consumption at the current Price

[BurtW]

A long time ago I derived a "back of the envelope" formula to estimate the amount of power the mining sector will attempt to consume based on the assumption that, on average, the mining sector will consume as much power as it can afford to consume.  Here is an updated, simplified formula:

P = 6(50/2^e + f)(x)(r)/c [kW]

where:

x = the average exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = the era [0..32]  (we are currently in era 2)
f = the average fees per block [BTC/block]
c = the average cost of energy [USD/kWh]
r = the average ratio of miner's energy cost to total income[unitless ratio]

Here is a quick stab at the numbers.  If you think you have more accurate numbers put them in the formula and see what you get.

x = $8,800 per BTC
f = 1.25 BTC/block
c = $0.10 per kWh
r = 0.5 (50%) of total income spent on energy

P = 6(50/2² + 1.25)(8800)(0.5)/0.1
   = 6(12.5 + 1.25)(8800)(0.5)/0.1
   = 82.5(8800)(0.5)/0.1
   = 3,630,000 kW
   = 3.630 GW

So at $8,800 per BTC the mining sector will attempt to consume about 3.6 GW.  It may not get there due to shortages of miners, build out delays, etc. but it will try.

My numbers above are total "back of the envelope" estimates.  If you can come up with more accurate values for the average values of x, f, c, and r then we can get a more accurate estimate for P.

Note all thread spam will be deleted.

[BurtW]

Note that changing one number can have a huge impact on the result.  For example the average cost of electricity.  We know that some miners pay more that $0.10 per kWh but many miners pay much less than that.  If the average cost of electricity is, for example $0.05 per kWh then the mining sector will attempt to consume:

P = 6(50/2² + 1.25)(8800)(0.5)/0.05
   = 7,260,000 kW
   = 7.3 GW

[stompix]

Wow, managed to find a clean thread with exactly the information I was looking for.
Thanks BurtW.

Of course the price has exploded and the maximum consumption is almost double but that is just a simple variable easy to change.

I'm more interested in the 50% spend on energy from the total revenue.
At 10 cents per kw, an S9 will cost you around 100$ per month.
With a tag price of 1400$ wouldn't that mean it will take you 14 months to ROI ?
That is far too long in my opinion.

And it is getting worse if we consider  0.2 cents and cost of 30$ month , 30$ in the pocket.

Or am I wrong somewhere? High probability...

The thing is I try to figure how those "journalists"  have arrived at enormous hundred or so Twh consumption and I can't  figure it out.

[BurtW]

Wow, managed to find a clean thread with exactly the information I was looking for.
Thanks BurtW.

Of course the price has exploded and the maximum consumption is almost double but that is just a simple variable easy to change.

I'm more interested in the 50% spend on energy from the total revenue.
At 10 cents per kw, an S9 will cost you around 100$ per month.
With a tag price of 1400$ wouldn't that mean it will take you 14 months to ROI ?
That is far too long in my opinion.

And it is getting worse if we consider  0.2 cents and cost of 30$ month , 30$ in the pocket.

Or am I wrong somewhere? High probability...

The thing is I try to figure how those "journalists"  have arrived at enormous hundred or so Twh consumption and I can't  figure it out.

Using current and your numbers:

x = $16,000 per BTC
f = 1.856 BTC/block
c = $0.10 per kWh
r = 0.5 (50%) of total income spent on energy

P = 6(50/2² + 1.856)(16000)(0.5)/0.1
   = 6(12.5 + 1.856)(16000)(0.5)/0.1
   = 86.136(16000)(0.5)/0.1
   = 6,890,880 kW
   = 6.890 GW

GW is in units of power.

To convert to units of energy (TWh) as you are asking about we need a time frame, for example one year. 

Since a year has 365.25 * 24 = 8,766 hours:

Burning 6.89 GW for one year will use 60.4 TWh of energy.

[stompix]

Yeah typical noob mistake, I forgot about multiplying the number with 24

So I was just  doing
 7.3 GW x 365 = 2.6 TWh .....D'oh!!! , where was the h coming from....

But the numbers in the update with the "current" price look scary.
60.4 TWh means more than (wikipedia data) any power plant in the world, except two massive  hydroelectric power plant can produce.

Of course that is the maximum, but with the price hitting 100k the BTC mining might really become a factor affecting electricity prices.