State of the Real Bitcoin Economy

[Stephen Gornick]

It's too useful as a store of value, and that utility will inevitably drive it into more people's hands, driving up the price, stabilizing the price with larger volume, boosting mining incentive to make the system more secure, and increasing development and infrastructural investment in a virtuous cycle.

I couldn't disagree more.

The reason bitcoin is valued in double digits currently is due to speculation that there will be greater demand for holding coins in the future and thus the current exchange rate is justified or undervalued even.

But what causes this demand to hold coins?   

Simply as a store of value?  Certainly, those who bought in early April and still hold those coins don't think bitcoin is such a great store of value.   There are a number of stores of value with less risk than Bitcoin at these exchange rates.

When Bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange that creates demand for coins.  You can't send a Bitcoin payment without first acquiring those coins.  If a business receives coins as revenue and then will be using bitcoins in the future for purchasing goods and services, or paying out dividends, then the merchant is likely to hold a balance of coins for the short duration between when the revenue transaction occurred and when the spending will occur.     Holding the coins for that short amount of time, though, decreases the quantity available for sale at the exchanges and, in aggregate, bitcoin gaining traction as a currency causes the exchange rate to rise.

It doesn't matter where the demand for bitcoins comes from ...   whether it be as a means of exchange, remittance payments, speculation (hoarding), forex trading, etc., .... any coin that doesn't end up being sold means less resistance to a rising exchange rate.

The reason traction in retail and e-commerce is seen as so important by many is because of what it will do to the exchange rate if it happens.   If it happens, a BTC/USD of $10,000 is not crazy talk.  Without it, a BTC/USD of $2 might be the more fair valuation.

[1715380290]

1715380290

[1715380290]

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[WaverleyStreet]

It's too useful as a store of value, and that utility will inevitably drive it into more people's hands, driving up the price, stabilizing the price with larger volume, boosting mining incentive to make the system more secure, and increasing development and infrastructural investment in a virtuous cycle.

I couldn't disagree more.

The reason bitcoin is valued in double digits currently is due to speculation that there will be greater demand for holding coins in the future and thus the current exchange rate is justified or undervalued even.

But what causes this demand to hold coins?   

Simply as a store of value?  Certainly, those who bought in early April and still hold those coins don't think bitcoin is such a great store of value.   There are a number of stores of value with less risk than Bitcoin at these exchange rates.

When Bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange that creates demand for coins.  You can't send a Bitcoin payment without first acquiring those coins.  If a business receives coins as revenue and then will be using bitcoins in the future for purchasing goods and services, or paying out dividends, then the merchant is likely to hold a balance of coins for the short duration between when the revenue transaction occurred and when the spending will occur.     Holding the coins for that short amount of time, though, decreases the quantity available for sale at the exchanges and, in aggregate, bitcoin gaining traction as a currency causes the exchange rate to rise.

It doesn't matter where the demand for bitcoins comes from ...   whether it be as a means of exchange, remittance payments, speculation (hoarding), forex trading, etc., .... any coin that doesn't end up being sold means less resistance to a rising exchange rate.

The reason traction in retail and e-commerce is seen as so important by many is because of what it will do to the exchange rate if it happens.   If it happens, a BTC/USD of $10,000 is not crazy talk.  Without it, a BTC/USD of $2 might be the more fair valuation.

hold coins?    how can you hold something invisible other than those "bitcoins" from Utah!!!LOL

>>>WTF!!!!!

[QuestionAuthority]

It's too useful as a store of value, and that utility will inevitably drive it into more people's hands, driving up the price, stabilizing the price with larger volume, boosting mining incentive to make the system more secure, and increasing development and infrastructural investment in a virtuous cycle.

I couldn't disagree more.

The reason bitcoin is valued in double digits currently is due to speculation that there will be greater demand for holding coins in the future and thus the current exchange rate is justified or undervalued even.

But what causes this demand to hold coins?   

Simply as a store of value?  Certainly, those who bought in early April and still hold those coins don't think bitcoin is such a great store of value.   There are a number of stores of value with less risk than Bitcoin at these exchange rates.

When Bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange that creates demand for coins.  You can't send a Bitcoin payment without first acquiring those coins.  If a business receives coins as revenue and then will be using bitcoins in the future for purchasing goods and services, or paying out dividends, then the merchant is likely to hold a balance of coins for the short duration between when the revenue transaction occurred and when the spending will occur.     Holding the coins for that short amount of time, though, decreases the quantity available for sale at the exchanges and, in aggregate, bitcoin gaining traction as a currency causes the exchange rate to rise.

It doesn't matter where the demand for bitcoins comes from ...   whether it be as a means of exchange, remittance payments, speculation (hoarding), forex trading, etc., .... any coin that doesn't end up being sold means less resistance to a rising exchange rate.

The reason traction in retail and e-commerce is seen as so important by many is because of what it will do to the exchange rate if it happens.   If it happens, a BTC/USD of $10,000 is not crazy talk.  Without it, a BTC/USD of $2 might be the more fair valuation.

hold coins?    how can you hold something invisible other than those "bitcoins" from Utah!!!LOL

>>>WTF!!!!!

Smoothie did you get banned again?

[Akka]

WaverleyStreet could you please stop your annoying spam posts?

You are ruining a very interesting read.

I will ask you this once, otherwise you will be the very first person I actually put on my ignore list.

[Stephen Gornick]

So, what do you guys think is the way forward?

Bitcoin was used in online gaming but no service really had been "killing it".  Then on April, 17th 2012, fireduck realized he was on to something.  His new gambling site, 1209k was attracting more users than he felt comfortable handling so he sold the service which the new owner rebranded as SatoshiDICE and in a couple weeks the blockchain transaction chart started to hockey stick.

Within 30 days a "killer app" (online gambling seeing its "drop" hit millions of dollars worth each month) went from "could happen" to "happening before our very eyes".

We know there are dozens of "killer apps".   The remittance industry is another one.  Even if just the hawalders figured out the opportunity that Bitcoin provides them with, there's a huge amount of Bitcoin transactions that would result.  Hawalders transfer money in which there is required trust between the intermediaries.   Bitcoin disintermediates hawala -- breaking it down into there being simply two independent exchange transactions (i.e., bitcoins bought in one location, and bitcoins exchanged back to fiat in another).

Personally, I think the place Bitcoin will have the largest impact is with cyber-equities markets.  This is currently the category known as "equity crowdfunding" but that is a category that today essentially does not exist due to regulatory friction.   The JOBS act was passed more than a year ago and the SEC still is at least a half year away from finishing the rulemaking they are tasked with.  Even then, what is available today on BitFunder, Cryptostocks, Picostocks, (or funds like Havelock offers) will not qualify for use in the U.S. due to various reasons, including how investment in those vehicles for speculation can be made anonymously -- and thus there is no method for the authorities to enforce tax laws.

But look at ASICMINER, which is possibly the most highly valued company ever to go the "equity crowdfunding" route.  When there are more and more successes in companies who raised capital through these cyber-equities markets I expect that to be the catalyst for an unprecedented level of transaction activity for bitcoins.

[jdbtracker]

sorry but I have not bothered to read all the 5 pages on this subject but... think about it.

what does extreme volatility mean? it means only the most entrenched believers will stay and everyone knows the price will go up again as demand surges.

so what is the probable outcome of this? extreme distribution before the full ecosystem is fully running.

People will gamble, hedge their bets, transfer money, buy goods at a low level because of the instability, but the instability will disappear when it reaches a certain threshold causing the currency to flatline. Bitcoin is now worldwide there are nodes active in every single country at one moment or another; think about it, that is a Bitcoin seed being planted growing organically much like it did from the Genesis Block, the one who knows what it can be nurtures it, grows it, spreads its seeds and waits for the day that it is fully grown and ready to bare fruit.

Each barrier to growth is known,The White Paper; the creation story, the Genesis Block; the sharing,discussion among the experts, Lazlos Pizza; the experiment in its value, MtGox; the gathering, BitcoinJ; the world domination tour.

I was born in Honduras and I can tell you, everyone there has a phone... I can buy a phone that you buy here for 400-600 dollars for 50-100 dollars there because we don't have the same regulations that there are in the western countries, we buy direct from Korea, Japan, China. If the citizens of the most violent country in the world have access to all communication technology, what is to stop it from going there? language? culture?  The major foundations of Bitcoin have been built, now it's time for the people of the world to embrace it through their cell phones.

The things to monitor I believe are the exchanges; They will be the marker of non-techies entering the market, it will die down when the Bitcoin ecosystem is more developed. When the ecosystem is fully built there will be direct ways for everyone to earn bitcoin without mining it, it will have become decentralized.

The ease of acquiring bitcoins; The systems of the world are closed, they flow from one to the other, spreading, converging like water does in nature; no one ever worries about finding money because it is everywhere to be found in its natural habitat, with a little effort you can get some yourself, so will it be with bitcoins; A closed system that flows when the time is right.

Everyone will accept it; you will know that bitcoin has arrived when the beggars on the street know and accept bitcoin too.

The language will change; A language that denotes doubt and discrimination or fear is one that speaks of greater fears, non-questioning denotes compliance acceptance. That moment will come when it is so easy that everyone else is doing it, you'll feel stupid to ask someone for help because everyone is doing it, why would you question it?

These things will come when the system is world wide when you have 7 billion people across the planet actively trying to get one coin it will be very hard to hoard. The level of hoarding will be extreme just before that moment arrives but it will be for small amounts because of the ever increasing difficulty of getting one and that is when the ecosystem will begin branching out, people will begin working for them.

The amount necessary for this is a market cap for Bitcoin of 42 billion USD, only a fraction of that will be circulated actively everyday; 6 bitcoins for every human being alive. the amount of active commerce will have to match the active movement of the currency that requires a lot of variety in purchasing power... don't look for single service providers look for meta-providers with thousands of products thats when you know the time for Bitcoin is near.

[WaverleyStreet]

It's too useful as a store of value, and that utility will inevitably drive it into more people's hands, driving up the price, stabilizing the price with larger volume, boosting mining incentive to make the system more secure, and increasing development and infrastructural investment in a virtuous cycle.

I couldn't disagree more.

The reason bitcoin is valued in double digits currently is due to speculation that there will be greater demand for holding coins in the future and thus the current exchange rate is justified or undervalued even.

But what causes this demand to hold coins?   

Simply as a store of value?  Certainly, those who bought in early April and still hold those coins don't think bitcoin is such a great store of value.   There are a number of stores of value with less risk than Bitcoin at these exchange rates.

When Bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange that creates demand for coins.  You can't send a Bitcoin payment without first acquiring those coins.  If a business receives coins as revenue and then will be using bitcoins in the future for purchasing goods and services, or paying out dividends, then the merchant is likely to hold a balance of coins for the short duration between when the revenue transaction occurred and when the spending will occur.     Holding the coins for that short amount of time, though, decreases the quantity available for sale at the exchanges and, in aggregate, bitcoin gaining traction as a currency causes the exchange rate to rise.

It doesn't matter where the demand for bitcoins comes from ...   whether it be as a means of exchange, remittance payments, speculation (hoarding), forex trading, etc., .... any coin that doesn't end up being sold means less resistance to a rising exchange rate.

The reason traction in retail and e-commerce is seen as so important by many is because of what it will do to the exchange rate if it happens.   If it happens, a BTC/USD of $10,000 is not crazy talk.  Without it, a BTC/USD of $2 might be the more fair valuation.

hold coins?    how can you hold something invisible other than those "bitcoins" from Utah!!!LOL

>>>WTF!!!!!

Smoothie did you get banned again?

does that guy work for the bitcoin numismatics dept?


>>>WTFFFF!!!!

[Chaoskampf]

I think the biggest obstacle Bitcoin has ever faced, and will continue to face, is ignorance. Bitcoin presents a set of serious advances in the world of commerce and finance, though the masses have yet to educate themselves of these advances. The greatest service we could do to both Bitcoin and our fellow peers is to spread the word, disseminate knowledge, and introduce those around us to this new technology. I found out about Bitcoin 3 years ago, but only in the last year have I truly understood the full scope of its paradigm shifting nature. Though we might think progress is coming slowly, or maybe not coming at all, consider this: just over 6 years ago there was no such thing as Bitcoin, and now it's the most highly valued currency on the planet.

[WaverleyStreet]

your siggy~>LOL!!!

" If we hit that bullseye the rest of the bitcoins will fall like a house of cards. ...Checkmate! "


membermark from me to you !!!!


>>>I GOT LOVE FOR YOU GUYS!!!!!

[d'aniel]

I couldn't disagree more.

The reason bitcoin is valued in double digits currently is due to speculation that there will be greater demand for holding coins in the future and thus the current exchange rate is justified or undervalued even.

But what causes this demand to hold coins?   

Simply as a store of value?  Certainly, those who bought in early April and still hold those coins don't think bitcoin is such a great store of value.   There are a number of stores of value with less risk than Bitcoin at these exchange rates.

When Bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange that creates demand for coins.  You can't send a Bitcoin payment without first acquiring those coins.  If a business receives coins as revenue and then will be using bitcoins in the future for purchasing goods and services, or paying out dividends, then the merchant is likely to hold a balance of coins for the short duration between when the revenue transaction occurred and when the spending will occur.     Holding the coins for that short amount of time, though, decreases the quantity available for sale at the exchanges and, in aggregate, bitcoin gaining traction as a currency causes the exchange rate to rise.

It doesn't matter where the demand for bitcoins comes from ...   whether it be as a means of exchange, remittance payments, speculation (hoarding), forex trading, etc., .... any coin that doesn't end up being sold means less resistance to a rising exchange rate.

The reason traction in retail and e-commerce is seen as so important by many is because of what it will do to the exchange rate if it happens.   If it happens, a BTC/USD of $10,000 is not crazy talk.  Without it, a BTC/USD of $2 might be the more fair valuation.

Consider someone that stores $100,000 of value in bitcoins for a year, and during that year, someone who only uses them for daily transactions, and so only holds on average of $100 worth at any given time.  You'd need a thousand of the latter guys to affect the total valuation as much as a single one of the former.  That's why I don't think it's a requirement that the masses use Bitcoin in everyday transactions in order for it to be valuable, though it would of course help.  Keep in mind that people currently store much greater amounts of value than all the bitcoins are worth in assets that are much worse, technically, than Bitcoin.  Re: volatility, I'm willing to chalk it up to Bitcoin being new and in a state of flux.

[nwbitcoin]

I think the biggest obstacle Bitcoin has ever faced, and will continue to face, is ignorance. Bitcoin presents a set of serious advances in the world of commerce and finance, though the masses have yet to educate themselves of these advances. The greatest service we could do to both Bitcoin and our fellow peers is to spread the word, disseminate knowledge, and introduce those around us to this new technology. I found out about Bitcoin 3 years ago, but only in the last year have I truly understood the full scope of its paradigm shifting nature. Though we might think progress is coming slowly, or maybe not coming at all, consider this: just over 6 years ago there was no such thing as Bitcoin, and now it's the most highly valued currency on the planet.

This is exactly wrong!

Sorry for being direct, but ignorance doesn't stop something being successful!

For instance, do you know how your electric is produced - down to which power station is supplying your electricity, and what size fuses you have in your property?  

Do you know exactly how your food is produced, down to which farm your burgers came from?

Do you know exactly how to produce, write and perform in a sci fi movie?  Do you need to to pay for a ticket and to enjoy the show?

For almost everyone, the answer is no - yet they help do their part in making the economy work for those markets!

The general public don't need to know hardly anything about bitcoin - except that it works, and is a trustworthy way to buy and sell goods.

This isn't about education, its about trust and benefits - without enough of these, bitcoin isn't going to work!

[Chaoskampf]

I think the biggest obstacle Bitcoin has ever faced, and will continue to face, is ignorance. Bitcoin presents a set of serious advances in the world of commerce and finance, though the masses have yet to educate themselves of these advances. The greatest service we could do to both Bitcoin and our fellow peers is to spread the word, disseminate knowledge, and introduce those around us to this new technology. I found out about Bitcoin 3 years ago, but only in the last year have I truly understood the full scope of its paradigm shifting nature. Though we might think progress is coming slowly, or maybe not coming at all, consider this: just over 6 years ago there was no such thing as Bitcoin, and now it's the most highly valued currency on the planet.

This is exactly wrong!

Sorry for being direct, but ignorance doesn't stop something being successful!

For instance, do you know how your electric is produced - down to which power station is supplying your electricity, and what size fuses you have in your property?  

Do you know exactly how your food is produced, down to which farm your burgers came from?

Do you know exactly how to produce, write and perform in a sci fi movie?  Do you need to to pay for a ticket and to enjoy the show?

For almost everyone, the answer is no - yet they help do their part in making the economy work for those markets!

The general public don't need to know hardly anything about bitcoin - except that it works, and is a trustworthy way to buy and sell goods.

This isn't about education, its about trust and benefits - without enough of these, bitcoin isn't going to work!

For every single one of those examples that you listed, their adoption and widespread use depends on massively monopolistic structures which are in many, if not all cases, State sponsored. It's not like we really have much of a say in any of those choices. It's what our systems provide us. Bitcoin is a decentralized and open source system. This makes it's adoption entirely a product of people's awareness and willful choice to use it. This is necessarily limited by their knowledge of what it is and how it works (I'm not going to put my fiat fortunes into a shady software in which I have no clue how it works).  It's my opinion that Linux is a vastly superior operating system to Windows. However, because Microsoft creates monopolies through their legal and corporate manipulations, operating systems like Linux (open-source, free, and community driven) get the short end of the stick. They don't have as many applications written for them, or anywhere near as much market share in many different regards. This is the cost of having something being free/decentralized/open source. It's adoption can't be forced on the world through law or capitalism. It must be sought out by those who seek to use it for its benefits.

[WaverleyStreet]

So, what do you guys think is the way forward?

Bitcoin was used in online gaming but no service really had been "killing it".  Then on April, 17th 2012, fireduck realized he was on to something.  His new gambling site, 1209k was attracting more users than he felt comfortable handling so he sold the service which the new owner rebranded as SatoshiDICE and in a couple weeks the blockchain transaction chart started to hockey stick.

Within 30 days a "killer app" (online gambling seeing its "drop" hit millions of dollars worth each month) went from "could happen" to "happening before our very eyes".

We know there are dozens of "killer apps".   The remittance industry is another one.  Even if just the hawalders figured out the opportunity that Bitcoin provides them with, there's a huge amount of Bitcoin transactions that would result.  Hawalders transfer money in which there is required trust between the intermediaries.   Bitcoin disintermediates hawala -- breaking it down into there being simply two independent exchange transactions (i.e., bitcoins bought in one location, and bitcoins exchanged back to fiat in another).

Personally, I think the place Bitcoin will have the largest impact is with cyber-equities markets.  This is currently the category known as "equity crowdfunding" but that is a category that today essentially does not exist due to regulatory friction.   The JOBS act was passed more than a year ago and the SEC still is at least a half year away from finishing the rulemaking they are tasked with.  Even then, what is available today on BitFunder, Cryptostocks, Picostocks, (or funds like Havelock offers) will not qualify for use in the U.S. due to various reasons, including how investment in those vehicles for speculation can be made anonymously -- and thus there is no method for the authorities to enforce tax laws.

But look at ASICMINER, which is possibly the most highly valued company ever to go the "equity crowdfunding" route.  When there are more and more successes in companies who raised capital through these cyber-equities markets I expect that to be the catalyst for an unprecedented level of transaction activity for bitcoins.

SatoshiDice as in Erik Voorhees ?

"...[SatoshiDice]-it is responsible for roughly half of all bitcoin transactions that have ever occured..." - Erik Voorhees - The Role of Bitcoin as Money - Bitcoin 2013 Conference

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2YllvbJo6g


>>>THANK YOU NICE LINK!!!!

[WaverleyStreet]

the most highly valued currency on the planet is Gold no? something like 1200+-USD per coin?

>>WTF!!!!!

[xxjs]

Bitcoin penetration is now in illegal drugs, and gambling. A new good or method is canalized to the most needed places first. This is totally in line with the market, unavoidable and positive.

What's next? A third of all trade in Kenya is currently done with a sort of mobile money system. The operator eats 10 percent of each transaction, and still the people there prefers it. Then, take into account that their payment isn't really money, it is a transfer of debt just like a bank transfer. The feeling of getting bitcoins ringing into you phone is a totally different experience, it is something like holding a gold coin. A soon as they start to use bitcoins, they must feel it too.

Most people do not need to know the details of the crypto, the mining and so on. They need only rules of thumb for backup and password selection, and such things. Confidence will come with experience and via the jungle telegraph.

There are no obstacles to a wide adoption, only inertia.

[WaverleyStreet]

I think the biggest obstacle Bitcoin has ever faced, and will continue to face, is ignorance. Bitcoin presents a set of serious advances in the world of commerce and finance, though the masses have yet to educate themselves of these advances. The greatest service we could do to both Bitcoin and our fellow peers is to spread the word, disseminate knowledge, and introduce those around us to this new technology. I found out about Bitcoin 3 years ago, but only in the last year have I truly understood the full scope of its paradigm shifting nature. Though we might think progress is coming slowly, or maybe not coming at all, consider this: just over 6 years ago there was no such thing as Bitcoin, and now it's the most highly valued currency on the planet.

This is exactly wrong!

Sorry for being direct, but ignorance doesn't stop something being successful!

For instance, do you know how your electric is produced - down to which power station is supplying your electricity, and what size fuses you have in your property?  

Do you know exactly how your food is produced, down to which farm your burgers came from?

Do you know exactly how to produce, write and perform in a sci fi movie?  Do you need to to pay for a ticket and to enjoy the show?

For almost everyone, the answer is no - yet they help do their part in making the economy work for those markets!

The general public don't need to know hardly anything about bitcoin - except that it works, and is a trustworthy way to buy and sell goods.

This isn't about education, its about trust and benefits - without enough of these, bitcoin isn't going to work!

i agree the chinese have a clear advantage mining bitcoins because of the lack of regulations in the Nuclear Power field...in fact U.S. corporations set them up there because of this fact!!!

= RADIOACTIVE BITCOINS!!!LOL

>>>WHO TOLD YOU!!!!?

[WaverleyStreet]

Bitcoin penetration is now in illegal drugs, and gambling. A new good or method is canalized to the most needed places first. This is totally in line with the market, unavoidable and positive.

What's next? A third of all trade in Kenya is currently done with a sort of mobile money system. The operator eats 10 percent of each transaction, and still the people there prefers it. Then, take into account that their payment isn't really money, it is a transfer of debt just like a bank transfer. The feeling of getting bitcoins ringing into you phone is a totally different experience, it is something like holding a gold coin. A soon as they start to use bitcoins, they must feel it too.

Most people do not need to know the details of the crypto, the mining and so on. They need only rules of thumb for backup and password selection, and such things. Confidence will come with experience and via the jungle telegraph.

There are no obstacles to a wide adoption, only inertia.

i first heard about TOR - SILK ROAD - DARKWEB - BITCOIN last spring from pharmaceutical researchers living in Amhurst, Massachusetts. Widespread adoption will be difficult because of the amound of disk space involved and "backdoors" written in the code!!!! Not to mention promoters who frontloaded and censor anyone who quetions their authority on Bitcoin!!!!


= "PSUDO-OPEN SOURCE" ~IN MY HONEST OPINION .

>>> WTF PEOPLE!!!!>>>HELP ME!!!!

[UncleBobs]

Comparisons to the internet and it's growth are utterly irrelevent.

The internet allowed people to do so many things that just weren't possible before the internet and it has utterly transformed peoples lives and the methods of interactions, shopping, entertainment etc.

By comparison Bitcoin does virtually nothing that cannot be achieved already with money. It is a potential store of value/speculation, but at its heart was designed to be a payment mechanism and it has yet to prove to the masses that it is a better or cheaper payment mechanism than that which exists already.

As for the state of the Bitcoin economy, there are a number of BTC evangelists (mainly on here) who do buy stuff with Bitcoins, but the rest of the use is either gambling, illegal purchases or the biggest use of Bitcoin - buying it hoping that some other people will use it and it'll go up in value. Until that changes it's a rough-ride folks.

This is the most realistic post in the thread.

Bitcoin is not the new internet.  It is not the new Paypal.  It is not the new ecommerce, or dotcom boom.  It is not a shiny new toy for the world which will be joyfully adopted by teenaged girls and grandmas.

It is something much grimmer then that.  It is a response to, and a defense against the increasing repression by the corporate and governmental powers that be which has been enormously facilitated by the internet.

Reading Satoshi's posts this is very clear.  Did he sound to anyone like some starry eyed web entrepreneur?

So far, its only real advantages have been in circumventing drug prohibition, contributions to banned organizations, tax avoidance, and "money laundering".  It's nature is to be against the system.  That isn't going to change, and I predict that all the purveyors of techno-utopian Silicon Valley happy-talk are going to waste millions before they
recognize this.

The year is not 1992.  The year is 1984.  The world is not about to enter a boom.  The financial system is absurdly overburdened with debt, and global demographics point to a catastrophic decline, and quite likely large scale war, over the next 20 years.  Power has become more and more concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and those entities, whether states or corporations are actively seeking to increase their control over the masses.

Like it or not, the role of Bitcoin is as a weapon of resistance. 

[WaverleyStreet]

Comparisons to the internet and it's growth are utterly irrelevent.

The internet allowed people to do so many things that just weren't possible before the internet and it has utterly transformed peoples lives and the methods of interactions, shopping, entertainment etc.

By comparison Bitcoin does virtually nothing that cannot be achieved already with money. It is a potential store of value/speculation, but at its heart was designed to be a payment mechanism and it has yet to prove to the masses that it is a better or cheaper payment mechanism than that which exists already.

As for the state of the Bitcoin economy, there are a number of BTC evangelists (mainly on here) who do buy stuff with Bitcoins, but the rest of the use is either gambling, illegal purchases or the biggest use of Bitcoin - buying it hoping that some other people will use it and it'll go up in value. Until that changes it's a rough-ride folks.

This is the most realistic post in the thread.

Bitcoin is not the new internet.  It is not the new Paypal.  It is not the new ecommerce, or dotcom boom.  It is not a shiny new toy for the world which will be joyfully adopted by teenaged girls and grandmas.

It is something much grimmer then that.  It is a response to, and a defense against the increasing repression by the corporate and governmental powers that be which has been enormously facilitated by the internet.

Reading Satoshi's posts this is very clear.  Did he sound to anyone like some starry eyed web entrepreneur?

So far, its only real advantages have been in circumventing drug prohibition, contributions to banned organizations, tax avoidance, and "money laundering".  It's nature is to be against the system.  That isn't going to change, and I predict that all the purveyors of techno-utopian Silicon Valley happy-talk are going to waste millions before they
recognize this.

The year is not 1992.  The year is 1984.  The world is not about to enter a boom.  The financial system is absurdly overburdened with debt, and global demographics point to a catastrophic decline, and quite likely large scale war, over the next 20 years.  Power has become more and more concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and those entities, whether states or corporations are actively seeking to increase their control over the masses.

Like it or not, the role of Bitcoin is as a weapon of resistance.  

believe me i for one sipped the bitcoin kool aid and we do need positive change in the world. However i'm all too familiar with boilerroom type hype and wow it's getting hot up in here!!!LOL;)

>>WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[johnyj]

The concentration of hash power due to ASIC is a negative thing for the moment, hope that evens out quickly

Before, GPUs are available to everyone, a gamer with 1-2 ATI graphic cards can start mining right away without any investment, and a tiny $1000 investment will get anyone a decent rig of 1GH, which mines half a coin per today for many months, almost no barrier of entry

Most of the people are IT enthusiasts, mining is fun, and most of them don't really looking for a serious income

But now in ASIC era, with more and more manufacturer defined devices, that fun is lost more or less. Many people are looking for quick profit, since miners are the biggest actor in bitcoin economy, without more and more miner join the game due to barrier of entry, the bitcoin popularity will go down

And coin generation halfs every 4 years do not help either, soon at 2016 people will realize that 75% of all the coins are already mined and the game has almost finished its initial distribution of wealth, there will be even less people join the mining game

At that stage, the driven power for bitcoin popularity could be the collapse of fiat money or the huge support from some large enterprise. But I guess any corporation with some serious real economy output during a fiat money crisis would prefer to issue their own money instead of let a bunch of geeks who sitting on the pre-mined coins benefit from their economy significance

So it takes time, those large bitcoin holders must drive the real/virtual economy behind it to further increase its utility. The possible scenario I can think of: Some super popular IT product that is only payable in bitcoin