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全球最大空头高喊:我们终于到了周期的顶点
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Topic: 全球最大空头高喊:我们终于到了周期的顶点 (Read 60 times)
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全球最大空头高喊:我们终于到了周期的顶点
November 28, 2017, 03:46:20 PM
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摘要:在去年巨亏50%后,一直喊着市场要崩盘的英国对冲基金经理Crispin Odey又称,我们终于走到了周期的顶点。这和1999及2008年相似,但不同的是,过去央行会印钱应对下行周期,但这次他们却完全反着来。本文来自华尔街见闻,作者张家伟。更多精彩资讯请登陆wallstreetcn.com,或下载华尔街见闻APP。在去年巨亏将近50%之后,孜孜不倦认为市场将要崩盘的英国对冲基金经理Crispin Odey,丝毫没有改变看空的信念。他在最新致投资者信中认为,市场将出现车祸惨剧的可能性越来越高,“到处都出现车祸的几率正在升高”,我们终于在全球范围内走到了周期的顶点。他写道:全球范围内最有意思的是,美联储面临的是日益短缺的劳动力人数。失业人口大约40万,年化的就业增长约为每月20万,突然之间美联储无法再通过QE让信贷周期继续运转,而是必须要考虑近在眼前的背风海岸线,这终将停止增长。他表示,对于习惯了信贷扩张以及逐渐忘记了商业周期概念的市场而言,美联储如今的强硬态度可能导致的结果是不可想象的。他认为,我们终于在全球范围内走到了周期的顶点,“这样的顶点曾经出现在1979、1989、1999、2008年以及当前。”Odey认为,汽车行业的状况就是证明目前是周期顶点的有力论据:汽车行业已经进入衰退,库存较过去平均水平高出30%,因为销量较过去跌了10%。只有欧洲的销量在增长。他还表示,不论是商品、工业品还是零售领域,周期顶点的出现是广泛的现象。在过去10年中,每当遇到下行周期,央行都通过印钱予以应对。“但是这一次,他们完全反着来,这必定会加剧趋势。”Odey认为,这些本是不利于股市的因素,但股市的表现却极为反常。他称:当我审视股市自特朗普当选总统以来的上行趋势时,我发现了醉汉走路的味道。以苹果为例,其利润在2015年见顶,但是市盈率从那时至今却涨了50%。一切都押注于其第八代手机,但是如果秋季的这一换机周期表现疲弱,那就要小心了。Odey旗下对冲基金去年全年亏损49%,今年以来亏损幅度为2.7%。以下是他历年的表现:以下蓝线是Odey旗下对冲基金自成立以来的表现,灰线是大盘表现:
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