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医改法案冲击下 “特朗普交易”正向“特朗普恐慌”演变
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医改法案冲击下 “特朗普交易”正向“特朗普恐慌”演变
November 28, 2017, 05:01:53 PM
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特朗普在废除奥巴马医改法案上遭遇的挫折,让“特朗普交易”日益向“特朗普恐慌”演变。本周美股的走势,正反应了投资者的这种心态。市场对特朗普一系列改革计划将会延后的担忧,导致美国股市遭遇黑色星期二。周三美股迎来些许平静,而周四随着投票的推迟,三大股指由上涨迅速转为下跌。据CNN等媒体报道,周四最后的闭门会上,共和党领袖仍未争取到足够的票数支持。尽管如此,白宫官员和众议院议长、共和党人Ryan仍告知共和党众议员,他们的谈判结束,特朗普希望就共和党替代奥巴马医改的议案——“美国医疗法案”(AHCA)进行投票,要求本周五进行。媒体称,周四晚在与共和党保守派组织“自由党团”气氛紧张的会晤期间,服务于总统的行政机构管理与预算局(OMB)局长Mick Mulvaney 发出了类似最后通牒的警告:若特朗普未能让AHCA获得投票通过,他会将重心转移到其他优先工作事项上,让奥巴马医改保留不变。任何关于医改可能推迟或未获通过的迹象,都将引发投资者对之后特朗普税改以及经济刺激等措施是否也将“难产”的担忧,从而对市场带来冲击。黑石集团旗下顾问公司Blackstone Advisory Partners副总裁Byron Wien称,特朗普团队在废除奥巴马医改上遭遇的麻烦,让投资者不禁对税改等计划产生同样的担忧,而税改正是刺激美国实际GDP提速的关键措施。而过去数周以来,在轰轰烈烈的“特朗普交易中”,各类资产的价格变动则基本上是基于特朗普的计划不会出问题的假设。瑞银证券美股及衍生品分析师Julian Emanuel称,这就导致资产价格过高反映了这些事宜推进的确定性,“即便投票结果是通过,也要注意的是,在参议院获得通过也相当困难。”美国投资公司ConvergEx首席市场策略师Nicholas Colas在一份研报中也提到了相同的担忧。华尔街见闻昨日提到,Colas联系的两名华盛顿人士认为,共和党有可能获得足够的票数让法案在众议院获得通过。但是,最终在参议院获得通过依然希望渺茫。对于目前的这种情况,Cumberland Advisors首席投资官David Kotok甚至称,这看起来就像一起小型恐慌,“我认为众议院可能会通过,否则,市场将会备受震惊,结果不会好看。”State Street Global Advisors分析师Michael Arone则预计,鉴于美股在很短时间内达到当前水平,如果“美国医疗法案”无法通过,那么市场很可能会出现至少5%的回调。Colas也提到,自2017年初以来,市场认为美股走势会一帆风顺,“黑色星期二”的出现则是对立法过程并不会完美的残酷提醒,“特朗普交易1.0”已经结束了。不过Colas 认为,市场也没有必要过分担心,在股市跌至能够反映现实情况的水平,或者白宫支持增长的计划明确之后,“特朗普交易2.0”也将会在年内某个时点到来。
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