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分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
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Topic: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80% (Read 199 times)
liuliu1984
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分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 02:08:01 AM
#1
创始人马克-赫伯特撰文指出,比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%。

究其原因,赫伯特主要是根据最近的一项研究结果。(比特币超乎寻常的价格上涨已远远超过了崩盘的临界点)
据悉,这项名为“法玛泡沫”的研究报告是今年较早时由美国国家经济研究局发布的。(法玛是2013年诺贝尔经济学将得主,因提出“有效市场假说”闻名)。
研究人员对泡沫的定义是,某种资产的价格在两年内大幅上涨,然后在接下来的两年里下跌至少40%。当价格上涨超过100%时,研究人员发现,崩盘的可能性达到50%,当涨幅超过150%时,崩盘可能性达到80%。随着价格涨幅变得更大,崩盘就几乎可以肯定会发生。
过去两年,比特币已上涨近2500%,远远超过研究人员为“几乎肯定”会发生崩盘的情况所设置的门槛。
当然,这份报告的作者研究的是股市,而不是加密货币。但我仍然相信,他们的结论对比特币也同样适用,因为他们分析师了近一个世纪的历史数据,包括美国和外国股市,并且得出了大致相同的结论。
此外,他们也未能发现任何证据,证明崩盘的可能性取决于任何基本因素。这是一个关键的细节,因为很多比特币的信徒都坚持认为,比特币的基本面是独一无二的,因此历史先例并不适用。然而之前每次泡沫的发生,往往都伴随着类似的历史独特性的主张(比如互联网泡沫)。
周二,截止到发稿,根据CoinMarketCap网站的数据,韩国交易量最大的交易平台Bithumb比特币报价为10176.4美元。此外,韩国比特币交易平台Coinone及Korbit、非洲最大比特币交易平台Luno、土耳其交易平台Paribu以及比特币印尼交易平台的报价介于10061.60至12045.80美元间。而全球大多数比特币交易所的价格在9500至9700美元区间。
OKEx的分析师称,助推比特币上扬的利好因素包括五个方面:世界首支比特币公募基金问世、韩国无意监管比特币交易、芝商所推出比特币期货、津巴布韦通货膨胀以及白俄罗斯推进加密货币合法化。
ricky wa
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 02:26:04 AM
#2
专家都是骗人的
diand
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 02:35:48 AM
#3
盘子越来越大了
HUG - Small coin - HUGe opportunities...
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xiaoxz
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 02:57:41 AM
#4
不管如何,怎么可能一直涨下去,就差一根导火线而已。
e2w
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 03:07:13 AM
#5
啥时候到百分之85,百分之99呢?
wyh4166
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 03:18:43 AM
#6
肯定还会有一波大跌,但大趋势肯定还是涨
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shycoins
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 03:28:51 AM
#7
有人说“比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%”。这太恐怖了,你不要吓我。我可是卖了房子卖了车子梭哈的。如果崩盘了,那我要找100层的高楼了。
qqq5817827
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 04:23:41 AM
#8
比特币已经崩盘很多次了,哈哈
MeGaSonG
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 04:44:03 AM
#9
崩啊 你倒是崩啊 反正手里一个都没有了 内心很空虚 一点希望没有的感觉
BigOne
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 05:08:33 AM
#10
期待比特币崩盘,比特币牛了很久了,是该吃一个败仗了。
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lp58
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Re: 分析师:比特币崩盘的可能性超过80%
November 29, 2017, 05:10:21 AM
#11
盘子大了
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