BFL 30GH delivered

[justanickname]

I only kept my order cause I didn't see they were folding up & running & 30GH for $650 was a great deal  

Sorry to ruin the party, but the correct way of looking at it is that you bought 30GH for 100BTC (because a year and 5 days ago 1BTC=$6.5);

You could have bought with your 650$ 100BTC instead.
If you ever profit more than 100BTC (which I really hope you do) then it will be a good/great deal

Good luck!

[philips]

I only kept my order cause I didn't see they were folding up & running & 30GH for $650 was a great deal  

Sorry to ruin the party, but the correct way of looking at it is that you bought 30GH for 100BTC (because a year and 5 days ago 1BTC=$6.5);

You could have bought with your 650$ 100BTC instead.
If you ever profit more than 100BTC (which I really hope you do) then it will be a good/great deal

Good luck!

No, that is not the correct way to look at it, is just one way to look at it.

[justanickname]

No, that is not the correct way to look at it, is just one way to look at it.

philips,

When you buy a minner, you want to earn as much BTC as possible (if you don't agree on this statement this discussion is pointless)


You have 650$ which can buy you 100BTC directly.

If you instead  buy a minner with these 650$ and mine less than 100BTC
it was a bad deal because the 650$ gave you less than 100BTC.

Care to explain why this is not the correct calculation?

Thanks

[philips]

stuff

Yes yes, same ol' same ol' woulda coulda shoulda, we've been through this for what...a gajillion times already?

[Schrankwand]

No, that is not the correct way to look at it, is just one way to look at it.

philips,

When you buy a minner, you want to earn as much BTC as possible (if you don't agree on this statement this discussion is pointless)


You have 650$ which can buy you 100BTC directly.

If you instead  buy a minner with these 650$ and mine less than 100BTC
it was a bad deal because the 650$ gave you less than 100BTC.

Care to explain why this is not the correct calculation?

Thanks

You should have bought Gold ten years ago, how could you buy stocks.

If you buy dollars now you have lost totally to euro conversion from 2008 when we once hit 1,50.

That is the only right way to look at it.




Those assumptions are worthless. The "would" assumption is simply a scenario comparison. From the point of time he made the decision, that is if he bought for $650 which was the asking price, he is making money. If the asking price was 100BTC at that time, I would agree. But that was the conversion price. Not the asking price.

And even then, it might not matter. Because it means he has lost something since he waited on something. Those are speculative costs that after all, could not even be in any way foreseen.

[justanickname]

If the asking price was 100BTC at that time, I would agree. But that was the conversion price. Not the asking price.

This is really simple.
If you buy a miner, you pay for it x worth of BTC. even if it is payed in USD it is still worth x BTC at the moment of purchase!
If the miner  mines less than x BTC alltogether than you lose because you could have bought x BTC instead of buying the miner.
This is a fact. It has nothing to do with assumptions, theories, feelings, subjective way of looking at the world. Just a very simple math.

And mostly it doesn't matter if when the mining is over, BTC worth a lot more USD (which means either way you earned USD)
or a lot less  (which means either way you lost USD).

x BTC is always bigger than "less than x BTC";

All I am saying is that only if op is able to mine more than 100BTC he had a good deal.

[Schrankwand]

This is really simple.
If you buy a miner, you pay for it x worth of BTC. even if it is payed in USD it is still worth x BTC at the moment of purchase!
If the miner  mines less than x BTC alltogether than you lose because you could have bought x BTC instead of buying the miner.
This is a fact. It has nothing to do with assumptions, theories, feelings, subjective way of looking at the world. Just a very simple math.

The oil price has increased heavily in the last years. You can tell start telling me now that through investing in Bitcoin miners, I might have lost the profits in oil investments.

That is the same kind of argument.

x BTC is always bigger than "less than x BTC";

Yeah. Of course, that is simple. However you would also be right if you said "If you had invested in Apple stocks some years ago instead of... you would have more USD than before, simple math." It is just as nonsensical.

[OmegaNemesis28]

Yeah. Of course, that is simple. However you would also be right if you said "If you had invested in Apple stocks some years ago instead of... you would have more USD than before, simple math." It is just as nonsensical.

Yep more or less. Its like saying you would've known the future outcome ahead of time, what simple math that is!

[justanickname]

This is really simple.
If you buy a miner, you pay for it x worth of BTC. even if it is payed in USD it is still worth x BTC at the moment of purchase!
If the miner  mines less than x BTC alltogether than you lose because you could have bought x BTC instead of buying the miner.
This is a fact. It has nothing to do with assumptions, theories, feelings, subjective way of looking at the world. Just a very simple math.

The oil price has increased heavily in the last years. You can tell start telling me now that through investing in Bitcoin miners, I might have lost the profits in oil investments.

That is the same kind of argument.

x BTC is always bigger than "less than x BTC";

Yeah. Of course, that is simple. However you would also be right if you said "If you had invested in Apple stocks some years ago instead of... you would have more USD than before, simple math." It is just as nonsensical.

This is not the same at all because BTC, oil and Apple are 3 different investment.
While buying BTC or buying a BTC miner is the same investment. investment in BTC.

[justanickname]

Yeah. Of course, that is simple. However you would also be right if you said "If you had invested in Apple stocks some years ago instead of... you would have more USD than before, simple math." It is just as nonsensical.

Yep more or less. Its like saying you would've known the future outcome ahead of time, what simple math that is!

My point is that we don't know if OP did a great deal or not that's all....

[justanickname]

...because OP was/is unable to predict the future.

I totally agree!


This whole argument started when I wrote this:

Sorry to ruin the party, but the correct way of looking at it is that you bought 30GH for 100BTC (because a year and 5 days ago 1BTC=$6.5);

You could have bought with your 650$ 100BTC instead.
If you ever profit more than 100BTC (which I really hope you do) then it will be a good/great deal

Good luck!

It is yet to determine if this is/was a great deal.
People here don't seem to realize that the only way of calculating the ROI
is if you minded more BTC that you could have just bought at the moment of buying the miner.
Why? because both options has the purpose of getting as much BTC as possible. One way could get you more than the other and one need to gamble.
Do you agree on that?

[dentldir]

Congrats.  Haters may not agree, but coffee actually tastes just a bit better out of BFL mugs they day after your order arrives.

Oh yeah and congrats on the black box too.

LOLS. BTW, how do you get a BFL mug?

I believe one or two come with every hardware order.  I know it was one with the Jalapeno for sure.  FPGA customers can say if this has always been the case.

[philips]

Congrats.  Haters may not agree, but coffee actually tastes just a bit better out of BFL mugs they day after your order arrives.

Oh yeah and congrats on the black box too.

LOLS. BTW, how do you get a BFL mug?

I believe one or two come with every hardware order.  I know it was one with the Jalapeno for sure.  FPGA customers can say if this has always been the case.

I wish that was true, every time I receive a box from BFL I so eagerly look inside for a mug. I would really like one you know, but noooo, there is only that stupid Jalapeno inside.

Damn scammers...

[k9quaint]

...because OP was/is unable to predict the future.

I totally agree!


This whole argument started when I wrote this:

Sorry to ruin the party, but the correct way of looking at it is that you bought 30GH for 100BTC (because a year and 5 days ago 1BTC=$6.5);

You could have bought with your 650$ 100BTC instead.
If you ever profit more than 100BTC (which I really hope you do) then it will be a good/great deal

Good luck!

It is yet to determine if this is/was a great deal.
People here don't seem to realize that the only way of calculating the ROI
is if you minded more BTC that you could have just bought at the moment of buying the miner.
Why? because both options has the purpose of getting as much BTC as possible. One way could get you more than the other and one need to gamble.
Do you agree on that?

I actually figured out why so many people don't know how to calculate ROI for Bitcoin miners.
They don't believe that one can with certainty determine what a device is expected to produce in BTC at a certain difficulty. They are aware of "calculators" but do not understand why they work, nor do they trust them. They get hung up on luck, and trying to predict the future. They think calculating a devices expected return is black magic. So they don't do the math, and positive results are good luck and negative results are bad luck. They believe these things to be beyond human control.

For those who do not believe in magic:
Buying the miner is buying Bitcoin over time vs. buying the Bitcoin as a lump sum and holding it. Both are bets that the exchange rate will remain good or improve. Both are long bets on Bitcoin. It is possible to know with certainty which growth rates of difficulty will yield a positive return over a fixed time period and which ones will not.

Of course it is not possible to know at what rate the network will eventually grow at. However, you can build a graph of possible returns and look at what the network hash rate must do in order for an investment in mining equipment to generate a positive return. If the hash rate has to do very unlikely things (like shrink for 6 months) for your investment to generate a positive return, then you shouldn't buy the equipment. If you feel strongly about owning BTC, you should buy them from an exchange.

After the time has passed, you can know what the hash rate did. After the time has passed, you can with certainty know if buying Bitcoin over time was a better investment than buying it as a lump sum from an exchange. Beforehand you can know the probabilities of an investment paying off, like the odds at a blackjack table. Afterwards you know if a hand won or lost, but you can know beforehand if you should have bet on it or not.

[justanickname]

For those who do not believe in magic:
Buying the miner is buying Bitcoin over time vs. buying the Bitcoin as a lump sum and holding it. Both are bets that the exchange rate will remain good or improve. Both are long bets on Bitcoin. It is possible to know with certainty which growth rates of difficulty will yield a positive return over a fixed time period and which ones will not.

Of course it is not possible to know at what rate the network will eventually grow at. However, you can build a graph of possible returns and look at what the network hash rate must do in order for an investment in mining equipment to generate a positive return. If the hash rate has to do very unlikely things (like shrink for 6 months) for your investment to generate a positive return, then you shouldn't buy the equipment. If you feel strongly about owning BTC, you should buy them from an exchange.

After the time has passed, you can know what the hash rate did. After the time has passed, you can with certainty know if buying Bitcoin over time was a better investment than buying it as a lump sum from an exchange. Beforehand you can know the probabilities of an investment paying off, like the odds at a blackjack table. Afterwards you know if a hand won or lost, but you can know beforehand if you should have bet on it or not.

Finally! I hope your words will be more clear than mine, because I give up 

[k9quaint]

For those who do not believe in magic:
Buying the miner is buying Bitcoin over time vs. buying the Bitcoin as a lump sum and holding it. Both are bets that the exchange rate will remain good or improve. Both are long bets on Bitcoin. It is possible to know with certainty which growth rates of difficulty will yield a positive return over a fixed time period and which ones will not.

Of course it is not possible to know at what rate the network will eventually grow at. However, you can build a graph of possible returns and look at what the network hash rate must do in order for an investment in mining equipment to generate a positive return. If the hash rate has to do very unlikely things (like shrink for 6 months) for your investment to generate a positive return, then you shouldn't buy the equipment. If you feel strongly about owning BTC, you should buy them from an exchange.

After the time has passed, you can know what the hash rate did. After the time has passed, you can with certainty know if buying Bitcoin over time was a better investment than buying it as a lump sum from an exchange. Beforehand you can know the probabilities of an investment paying off, like the odds at a blackjack table. Afterwards you know if a hand won or lost, but you can know beforehand if you should have bet on it or not.

Finally! I hope your words will be more clear than mine, because I give up 

A lot of people do not understand the difference between the probability of a result and the result itself. They see the result of a long shot coming in and say "See? I should have bet on it!!!". You can argue until you are blue in the face they shouldn't do it again and if they do it 100 times they will lose their shirt and they will never understand.

[DPoS]

If the asking price was 100BTC at that time, I would agree. But that was the conversion price. Not the asking price.

This is really simple.
If you buy a miner, you pay for it x worth of BTC. even if it is payed in USD it is still worth x BTC at the moment of purchase!
If the miner  mines less than x BTC alltogether than you lose because you could have bought x BTC instead of buying the miner.
This is a fact. It has nothing to do with assumptions, theories, feelings, subjective way of looking at the world. Just a very simple math.

And mostly it doesn't matter if when the mining is over, BTC worth a lot more USD (which means either way you earned USD)
or a lot less  (which means either way you lost USD).

x BTC is always bigger than "less than x BTC";

All I am saying is that only if op is able to mine more than 100BTC he had a good deal.

you are a clown....  if btc goes to $1 then he actually SAVED money then right?? when is you time of selling? when btc was $260 or now at $78? or can you predict next year's price?

[DPoS]

For those who do not believe in magic:
Buying the miner is buying Bitcoin over time vs. buying the Bitcoin as a lump sum and holding it. Both are bets that the exchange rate will remain good or improve. Both are long bets on Bitcoin. It is possible to know with certainty which growth rates of difficulty will yield a positive return over a fixed time period and which ones will not.

Of course it is not possible to know at what rate the network will eventually grow at. However, you can build a graph of possible returns and look at what the network hash rate must do in order for an investment in mining equipment to generate a positive return. If the hash rate has to do very unlikely things (like shrink for 6 months) for your investment to generate a positive return, then you shouldn't buy the equipment. If you feel strongly about owning BTC, you should buy them from an exchange.

After the time has passed, you can know what the hash rate did. After the time has passed, you can with certainty know if buying Bitcoin over time was a better investment than buying it as a lump sum from an exchange. Beforehand you can know the probabilities of an investment paying off, like the odds at a blackjack table. Afterwards you know if a hand won or lost, but you can know beforehand if you should have bet on it or not.

Finally! I hope your words will be more clear than mine, because I give up 

if you kept btc instead and don't sell till btc goes back to $1 then what??  you always sell at the top?  perhaps the buyer kept 70% of their btc as a hedge and used 30% for miners...  the 30% would represent higher risk/reward.  You can only base that decision at the time it was made.  Hindsight does not factor into it.  If you knew BFL were morons and still risk the btc then it was dumb move even if you got lucky...  if you did research and saw that they are solid company then it is good risk

what happens afterward is just second guessing.  only rate the move at the time it was made.

I decided in March that BFL were jackasses so I didn't place a minirig order.  I thought Avalon were good, but I didnt have btc for batch #3.   Hindsight says I am lucky that I didnt go for avalon batch #3.. but that doesn't mean the move was good.  It was lucky.  The correct move at that time was to risk on batch #3 from the data available..  but who knew they suck at handling problems and get lazy?

   

[markm]

If bitcoins go down, a miner might actually mine more, for example possibly other people might turn off their miners when bitcoin goes far down in value.

So having a miner instead of bitcoins can be a hedge against bitcoins going down in price. The more they go down the better chance there is that your miner will mine you more coins.

When bitcoins are going down, obtaining more bitcoins can help the total value of your collection of bitcoins to not go down so much.

To increase the value of your hoard of bitcoin you need the individual coins to go up in value or the number of coins you have to increase.

miners help the total number of coins you have to increase.

So it can seem to make some sense not to put all your wealth into bitcoins; putting some of it into bitcoin mining gear can seem reasonable.

When bitcoins dropped to $2 way back when, having a bunch of mining equipment instead of bitcoins probably seemed very good to some people.

-MarkM-

[Unacceptable]

Well,at the time,it was a good investment.BTC was $6 & I figured 30GH @ $650 was ok.

It still is a good deal,the device should make 100 BTC in about 200 days or less,if diff dosen't ramp up too quickly.

Personally,I nor anyone I know where able to predict the jump in BTC price would happen as soon as it did.I was thinking it would hit $100 by late 2014 or so.

But as far as ROI in dollars goes,it'll be 7-9 more days & its paid off  

Currently making .70 BTC per day  


BTW,I paid for my miner with BTC I mined since June 2011.My initial investment of $1000 has rolled over about 3 times at least  

Personally I would rather mine BTC than buy & hold,after ROI on miners is reached,each BTC costs me only the electricty to mine it.