Do you still want to buy a BTC miner? Better read this first.

[Wayne_Chang]

As the increasing of BTC mining difficulty, we'd better calculate the ROI before buying a BTC miner.
Current mining difficulty is 21,335,329. 50GHash/s miner can get 1.1786 BTC per day. It means if the price is 50 BTC, you need 50/1.1786=42.42days to get your investment back. In fact, the actual time will be longer because of difficulty increasing.
Therefore, if your target ROI time is 3 months, the machine you buy should cheaper than 2BTC/GHash. Otherwise, the risk of investment will be much higher because we all don't know what will happened 3 months later.

OK. Back to the market, what we can select now is Avalon(include kinds of clone machines using Avalon chips), BFL, and FriedCat. Let's go one by one.

First, Avalon.
No doubt on technical portion of Avalon team. Recently, it is proved that their chip can run a extremely high frequency which can make a 3 module machine run at 98GHash/s maximum.
For early pre-order customers, include batch#1 and batch#2, Avalon miner's price is really competitive even after 3 months delay. Some customers even ignored the delay because of price.
Problem is their customer service is really poor. Missing order, delay shipment and confused shipping sequence.
Avalon does not sell BTC miner anymore now, only chips. If you want to buy a miner base on Avalon chips, you have to choose other unofficial miner use Avalon chips. But be careful on the shipping time because Avalon still not massively shipping chips, miners not in stock is not recommended.

Second, BFL.
As the most famous and also the first company who declared to develop ASIC miner, their development on AISC chip is really slow. Almost 11 months after the pre-order date, they started to produce and ship retail version miner. But only 5G version and power consumption can not meet original design level.
BFL miner's price is in USD not BTC. It is cheap but also has the problem that no products in stock.
If you want to buy a miner from BFL, be aware that there are thousands of orders before you since last year. Also BFL's production capacity is very limited. It is high possibility that when you receive your miner, the mining difficulty is already skyhigh and you cannot get your investment back.

Third, FriedCat
FriedCat's major business is on mining by himself and selling stock shares. The price of its retail miner is not customer friendly.
For example, its USB miner is 0.99BTC with 330MHash/s hashing power. It means 3BTC/GHash. It's high risk. Same as Blade Miner.
Advantage of FriedCat is all the miners selled by FriedCat are products in stock. They will ship the miner to you once you paid. It is easy to assess your investment.

Summary:
For miners not in stock, such as Avalon, BFL, or even KNC, consider the potential waiting time in your risk assessment before investment. It will be the biggest risk compare with other factors.
For miners in stock, suggest to use 2BTC/GHash as a base line. Otherwise, you may still have a high risk that cannot get your investment back.

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[yxxyun]

indeed.....

[Queezy]

WTB 3 USB miners for 1BTC threads incoming 

[szmarco]

good job.

[HellDiverUK]

Not everyone is buying these things to get a ROI.  I mine for the challenge of getting the best hashes from my hardware possible, and keeping my uptime as close to 100% as I can.  It's a hobby.  The fact I get some money out of it is a bonus to me.

[Foofighter]

Not everyone is buying these things to get a ROI.  I mine for the challenge of getting the best hashes from my hardware possible, and keeping my uptime as close to 100% as I can.  It's a hobby.  The fact I get some money out of it is a bonus to me.

+1

[jspielberg]

Unfortunately there are no miners in hand to be had from the big guys (Avalon, AsicMiner, BFL), so really this only applies to the reseller market.

The folks selling mining equipment in hand have been setting the prices above 2GHs/BTC for miners in hand.

I have made a google spreadsheet with an best fit least squares exponential (and then tweaked it to be a bit more pessimistic).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0

You can put in lead time, expected hashrate, and your exponential tweaks if you like to model what your return would be on a miner investment.

I think at this point 2GHs/BTC is a clearly safe but unrealistic sale price... definitely something to shoot for.

[philips]

This kinda reminds me of: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6566.0

Expect a similar thread in two years.

[Jazkal]

This kinda reminds me of: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6566.0

Expect a similar thread in two years.

Yep. I always laugh when I see all the "sky is falling" threads that pop up.

[skleven]

The only units that even makes sense to order now, is KNC Saturn or Jupiter. The only risk is if BTC can`t hold it`s value. Even if you avg 4-500mill diff, you will have your RIO in 6 months. Then again, if BTC price drops, many miners will also drop out.

[papaminer]

This kinda reminds me of: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6566.0

Expect a similar thread in two years.

I cannot believe proudhon was there... as the first replier... lol

I thought proudhon just join bct when btc went up to $266/btc

[Trongersoll]

I always wonder how many of the "don't mine, you'll never see a full return on your investment" are running as many mining rigs as they can. 

[Moogle]

I still think its quite fun. I don't even know why though. The geek in me just wants bigger numbers to extend my e-penis

[juca]

The geek in me just wants bigger numbers to extend my e-penis

Epic

[LevLion]

Not everyone is buying these things to get a ROI.  I mine for the challenge of getting the best hashes from my hardware possible, and keeping my uptime as close to 100% as I can.  It's a hobby.  The fact I get some money out of it is a bonus to me.

Same for me! And its a way also to put your "money where your mouth is", to spend some good old bitcoins and to bring from the fiat into the crypto economy. Without mentioning that we are also running all the global finances! I trully think that its fascinating and makes a bit extra cash! I talk about this from the ammateur miner's perspective! I have trully found a beautifull vortex that has given me very important lessons about modernity!

Lets hope it all continues swell!

[k9quaint]

I always wonder how many of the "don't mine, you'll never see a full return on your investment" are running as many mining rigs as they can. 

Running them maybe. But not buying more.
Ordering a machine to be delivered after 3 months of monumental growth in the hash rate (BFL order log, Avalon order log, Klondike order log, KNC orders, and Bitfury orders) seems a bit hazardous.
Calculating a "return" off of current difficulty with zero growth rate is just bad math.

[Trongersoll]

I always wonder how many of the "don't mine, you'll never see a full return on your investment" are running as many mining rigs as they can. 

Running them maybe. But not buying more.
Ordering a machine to be delivered after 3 months of monumental growth in the hash rate (BFL order log, Avalon order log, Klondike order log, KNC orders, and Bitfury orders) seems a bit hazardous.
Calculating a "return" off of current difficulty with zero growth rate is just bad math.

assuming that you are looking for a return, not all of us are.

[derr777]

I see this all the time, but honestly, altruism is great until the bills roll in.  How long will you mine at increasing monthly losses?

99% of miners are attempting to turn a profit or at least break even if they're altruistic.  Very few will mine at a significant loss.

[k9quaint]

I always wonder how many of the "don't mine, you'll never see a full return on your investment" are running as many mining rigs as they can. 

Running them maybe. But not buying more.
Ordering a machine to be delivered after 3 months of monumental growth in the hash rate (BFL order log, Avalon order log, Klondike order log, KNC orders, and Bitfury orders) seems a bit hazardous.
Calculating a "return" off of current difficulty with zero growth rate is just bad math.

assuming that you are looking for a return, not all of us are.

I am not criticizing people for buying miners. I am criticizing people for saying that some miners ordered now will generate a positive return (when the math says otherwise)
If you just want to support the Bitcoin network, that's fine.

[rammy2k2]

thanks , good point !