Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test

[796]

One more time did the blogger offer users the accurate Bitcoin movements yesterday. From May 1st, people who have been keeping an eye on his forecasts on Bitcoin trend have evaded losses from slump and taken more or less profit. If you guys like and trust him, I’ll open a thread here on behalf of him focusing on Bitcoin movement so that you may earn more.
PS: the blogger is my boss and he is also called “ghost trader” in China.

The following analysis quoted from the blogger published at: http://weibo.com/796COM, July 1st (GMT+8)
Bitcoin market movement outlook:
From the 4-hour chart, the current correction price is relatively weak. Standing at $100 has become a strong resistance. It is important to look out for sudden power of selling short when buying long has not effectively shown. If there is no powerful buy orders to pull the price back to $100 above in a short time, a lot of people will begin to sell. The next range should possibly stand at $80-$85.

We could see that the Bitcoin price has been way down beginning from BTC-China and then Mt. Gox. It is also approaching the $80-$85 target range which he mentioned in his blog(see the above). But he did not advise selling at a loss when it is under $90. The price rebounds easily throughout whole night’s persistence in selling short and available for rally. On the other hand, short-term buying long is preferable when it is around $80.


If anyone is interested in this topic, I'll continue to keep it updated.

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[796]

Bitcoin price forecast
Time below are all GMT+8
I’ll keep it updated in time.

From May 1st, 2013, I have been offering Bitcoin price analysis for free.
They could access the most latest Bitcoin price analysis from:
   Sina microblog: http://weibo.com/796COM
   We chat: WWW796COM
   Tencent QQ Group: 181256559

Following are some fulfilled forecast:


On May 1st, I sold all my Bitcoins on Mt. Gox at the price of $134 and then I expressed my view that the uptrend from $52 has come to an end after 24 o’clock. Also, I told all the investors in Tencent QQ Group to sell.

On May 3rd, I said to the investor in QQ Group that they could buy at around $80-$85. Because of fund transfer, I did not buy since I missed the low price chance.

On May 24th, when Bitcoin price stands at $125 of the interim area, I bought more than 2,000 Bitcoins at the price of $128 to do short-term on Mt. Gox. It was just my trading that brought out rapid price uptrend on Mt. Gox.

On May 30th, I sold all my Bitcoins at the average price of $131, since there was no support for buy and also I didn’t think it would be profitable to do medium and long term investment. At the same time, I pointed that the uptrend of the wave from $80 would probably end. I bought at $102 on June 8th and then transferred to BTCCHINA to perform arbitrage. Also, I indicated that there was no need to sell at a loss when it was under $100, while bounces could be expected.Before and after the day 12th and 20th of June, I kept reminding of selling short at around $115.

On July 1st, I posted in microblog:
From the 4-hour chart, the current correction price is relatively weak. Standing at $100 has become a strong resistance. It is important to look out for sudden power of selling short when buying long has not effectively shown. If there is no powerful buy orders to pull the price back to $100 above in a short time, a lot of people will begin to sell. The next range should possibly stand at $80-$85.

And this is from July 2nd blog:
We could see that the Bitcoin price has been way down beginning from BTC-China and then Mt. Gox. It is also approaching the $80-$85 target range which he mentioned in his blog(see the above). But he did not advise selling at a loss when it is under $90. The price rebounds easily throughout whole night’s persistence in selling short and available for rally. On the other hand, short-term buying long is preferable when it is around $80.

I’m Jue sheng qian li( which means win thousands of miles away). It’s my blog name. My real name is Zhurong and I devised the exclusive Bitcoins-based futures for 796 Exchange.It is an exchange that is completely different from any other ones.
I’ve got more than 15 years of experience in financial investment.
I’m happy to share my forecast with Bitcoin funs from all over the world.
If you like, I’d post it here every day.

[Jozzaboy]

Sure, the thread is all yours buddy. I am all for extra information to process, helps correct my predictions on my own chart.

[bystander]

Thanks for posting, it's very interesting, please continue to post, will watch for this scenario in the near term.

[796]

Yesterday someone told me that it was not me who was forecasting the trend accurately but my view was affecting the trend. And then he gave me an example: he bought more than 1000BTC from Mt. Gox after he read my blog. Suddenly I realized why I’m over conservative recently and the price forecast is always a little bit deviation.

On June 12th, I forecast the price will sway in the $95-$115 area with high sell and low buy. The result showed $113 tops and $97 low until $115 upside on June 21st.
Support area $80-$85 on July 1st, it closes at $86.
Though the specific price what I referred is just relatively safe and conservative when I was doing short term analysis, I feel maybe I’m becoming older that makes me not so aggressive any longer.

However, I’m not feeling confused and doubting myself any more, because that is not my problem. Everybody should balance the price movement area and operate in batches.
After all, I’m not giving the absolute perfect price. Thus, you guys should think about the risk and control it. You may transact following your way after reading my forecast.

time: GMT+8

[796]

Bitcoin market outlook:
Time: GMT+8

From daily chart, downtrend continues. For medium-term, buy orders could wait till it gets to around $75 after slump. For short term trend, $98 becomes the interim price. Now correction at low needs bounces and could look out for buy power. The possibility of continued downs should be watched out if correction stays at $93 below for a long time. Besides, risk event of USD withdrawal from MTGOX should be paid more attention.

From the 4-hour chart, the Bitcoin price trend should be uptrend and bounce. Short term resistance with $93, $95 and $98 upside. If the correction keeps at low area when it’s time to rally, and long power doesn’t show up, there will be more and more people losing their patience which will lead to slump.

[796]

Thanks for posting, it's very interesting, please continue to post, will watch for this scenario in the near term.

Thanks for your support.
Will keep it updated in time.
And all the time in the post is GMT+8.

[ft73]

Thank you, following closely your posts

[BitChick]

Interesting.  Any projections beyond July? 

[796]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

[Jozzaboy]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

I'm unfortunately having difficulty reading this. Are you writing that this is a good bottom and time to purchase?

Thanks for your updates, quality content is lacking here.

[Crypt_Current]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

Please don't try to improve your English -- I have a feeling this is a large conributing factor to your accuracy (no offense meant whatsoever)

[796]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

I'm unfortunately having difficulty reading this. Are you writing that this is a good bottom and time to purchase?

Thanks for your updates, quality content is lacking here.

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

[796]

Interesting.  Any projections beyond July? 

thanks.
will update daily.
but no more yet beyond July.

[796]

Thank you, following closely your posts

thanks. 

[Logik]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

I was kind of bored and I like your posts, so I translated into native English. I hope you're not offended.


During the recent continuous slump, I pointed out the price for June 24th was approaching $100 and gave a breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 21st, I reminded readers to be cautious of the sudden short momentum and offered $80-85 as a relatively safe buy area. Additionally, I reminded readers to watch out for selling into the correction if the correction stayed low and weak. I offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have noticed my assumption that if there is no sign of a rally at the low during a correction, then there will be increased price slump risks for selling short. Thus, we can come up with a useful view - "sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn't do so". Of course, you require lots of experience to know when it's "supposed" to go up or down; as well as needing to understand the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price should drop around $15 during period of short selling, and on both occasions that came true within 24 hours. I believe that I'm the only person to predict that move with such accuracy. In addition, that forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st.
PS: Based on that forecast, I think the bounces which began at $80 may have come to an end. I think that I should share this information with more people, instead of just releasing it to my investors in the QQ Group. For that reason, I've created a microblog account to share my views on the Bitcoin price.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group (a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided taking losses during the recent slump, and a lot of them have taken much profit from selling short. I keep emphasising that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally, or it will inevitably cost you both your time and your confidence. Also, I think lots of overly optimistic Bitcoiners are now feeling under pressure, and are beginning to fear looking at the bitcoin price. However, as long as you think rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow

[bystander]

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

[vokain]

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

always consider the possibility this could be manipulation for you to set up bids for their selloff. not saying it is, could be bad karma for him to take advantage of people like that so he might choose not to, but always consider the worst. 796 saying he's working for his "boss" is why I'm watching out for the possibility.

Otherwise, 796, I don't mean to be offensive at all. Thank you for offering your input.

[796]

Bitcoin price outlook:
Time:GMT+8

After the whole morning’s sell into correction, short strength consumes itself to some extent and gets temporary support after double dip at 75 dollars. Single short term buying at near $75 may wait to sell at around $85. As for the present low 75.12 $ still needs to be looked into before we say it is the lowest level. The breakout below $75 is preferable for buy in batches. No much risk for short term. We don’t advise to cut positions when it is below $80.

[796]

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

always consider the possibility this could be manipulation for you to set up bids for their selloff. not saying it is, could be bad karma for him to take advantage of people like that so he might choose not to, but always consider the worst. 796 saying he's working for his "boss" is why I'm watching out for the possibility.

Otherwise, 796, I don't mean to be offensive at all. Thank you for offering your input.

these information all comes from Zhurong's blog who is one of the CEO of 796 Exchange(the boss).
he is willing to share his views.
and i'm in charge of putting his forecast here.
thanks.