Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test

[__/]

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)

Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest.  And illegal, I might add.

All the trading is carried out among investors.
The platform is not involved and the profit comes from trading commission.
If you think the price is abnormal, you may play arbitrage.

I'm sorry, but this looks very suspect. You have a gross conflict of interest.

You've posted this topic in 3 places across the forum. It's either for marketing, or a confidence trick. In my opinion there is a high chance it is a con.

First of all, there is a reason that I, Vokain, and others in your other threads have raised our concerns. It is very improper to see the boss of a "futures exchange" predict the price.

Currently your predictions are in line with general market expectations, and so it is easy to attempt to win over confidence this way.

However you have a *lot* of deposited BTC at your disposal. At any point in the future, you can use this to move MTGox against your predictions and force-liquidate any big players. The part that really sucks is that you could use people's own BTC to bet against them. I really don't like the look of this one bit.

Any futures site could do this, but there are two factors that make you stand out as being untrustworthy:
(1) you seem too eager to "predict" the price to your "followers" (and describe the predictions so reverentially)
(2) There is no true way to arbitrage against you in both directions, as you can only deposit/withdraw bitcoins at your site, not CNY or USD.

If I am wrong, and this is just marketing, then it is bad marketing.

As an aside, to address your response: I don't believe that your platform doesn't participate in trades. The 12k+ daily volume coming within under a month on a "futures" exchange is highly suspect. I believe many exchanges are guilty of this, but there is no way to prove this.

Furthermore, true "arbitrage" is difficult when it seems that one can only deposit and withdraw BTC (not fiat) at your exchange. The way you have the market set up, it is practically impossible for me to bet against you and win, if I believe you are a scammer. You hold all the cards, and have all the information.

[vokain]

It was already obvious the sole reason he's here is to build up confidence and sell into noobs. You can tell he was a manipulator from the answer to my third question. You just gotta be nice to 'em and have them think they can lead you on, and wait to see what they spill in between the lines. In this case, he totally avoided the question. Without even close to a satisfactory answer, minding language barriers of course, you know he's just trying to deflect from his agenda. The next 3 replies from him with the "thank you 's" is like the tell-all sign.

also, the fact we're on the speculation board doesn't help

[796]

Bitcoin market outlook:(GMT+8)

The price has gone through strong drop recently and falled to 70$ this morning. There is a sign of accelerating steady downside. Though the price is near the previous lows, bottom fishing fund inflow is still weak from the volume. We may fear steady down most for there’s no large trading.

Thanks.

[796]

It was already obvious the sole reason he's here is to build up confidence and sell into noobs. You can tell he was a manipulator from the answer to my third question. You just gotta be nice to 'em and have them think they can lead you on, and wait to see what they spill in between the lines. In this case, he totally avoided the question. Without even close to a satisfactory answer, minding language barriers of course, you know he's just trying to deflect from his agenda. The next 3 replies from him with the "thank you 's" is like the tell-all sign.

also, the fact we're on the speculation board doesn't help

What's your problem?
I had explained that Mr. Zhu is just trying to share with more Bitcoiners.
And I had also explained that he doesn't do Bitcoin investment in his own platform.
That's just because he doesn't want other investors to think that he's manipulating for his own platform.
Then it won't be fair to other users.
He does respect fairness.
He, himself, does investment on MTGOX, BTTC and some other platforms.
He has more than 15 years in financial investment and is acute to the market movements.
Is there anything wrong that he's willing to offer some advice to other investors and most had indeed taken profit?
Some people may take his advice, some may not.
It's not that we avoid your question, it's weekend.

[796]

Sorry, late for today's update: (GMT+8)

It shows no bottom sign from the chart. The volume isn’t enlarged and no long downlead appears. From 1-hour chart, there is bounces demand, but meets heavy upward pressure. We may possibly enter into another fall in relay process if no strong buy motivates. We may continue to observe whether it will strengthen. If corrections stays in the 70$ weak area, there will be breakout. We may take to short term buy long around 55$ if another slump emerges.

Thanks!

[796]

Today's update:(GMT+8)

We see over drop bounces after long power temporarily disappeared. Upward resistance area is around 80$. From the 4-hour chart, long strength temporarily fails after continuous drop recently. A wave of bounce comes out after standing at the short term average price line. Subsequent correction should be 70$-80$. We may decide buy or sell after testing the long and short strength. We would advise short sell when approaching 85$ for short term.

Thanks!

[796]

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)

Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest.  And illegal, I might add.

All the trading is carried out among investors.
The platform is not involved and the profit comes from trading commission.
If you think the price is abnormal, you may play arbitrage.

I'm sorry, but this looks very suspect. You have a gross conflict of interest.

You've posted this topic in 3 places across the forum. It's either for marketing, or a confidence trick. In my opinion there is a high chance it is a con.

First of all, there is a reason that I, Vokain, and others in your other threads have raised our concerns. It is very improper to see the boss of a "futures exchange" predict the price.

Currently your predictions are in line with general market expectations, and so it is easy to attempt to win over confidence this way.

However you have a *lot* of deposited BTC at your disposal. At any point in the future, you can use this to move MTGox against your predictions and force-liquidate any big players. The part that really sucks is that you could use people's own BTC to bet against them. I really don't like the look of this one bit.

Any futures site could do this, but there are two factors that make you stand out as being untrustworthy:
(1) you seem too eager to "predict" the price to your "followers" (and describe the predictions so reverentially)
(2) There is no true way to arbitrage against you in both directions, as you can only deposit/withdraw bitcoins at your site, not CNY or USD.

If I am wrong, and this is just marketing, then it is bad marketing.

As an aside, to address your response: I don't believe that your platform doesn't participate in trades. The 12k+ daily volume coming within under a month on a "futures" exchange is highly suspect. I believe many exchanges are guilty of this, but there is no way to prove this.

Furthermore, true "arbitrage" is difficult when it seems that one can only deposit and withdraw BTC (not fiat) at your exchange. The way you have the market set up, it is practically impossible for me to bet against you and win, if I believe you are a scammer. You hold all the cards, and have all the information.

Hi there,
First of all, thanks for your time to pose these questions.
We do want more people to know about our exchange.
Mr. Zhu did make it very clear in his microblog that he is better in predicting one day’s trend tops.
That’s why we update every day.
To be frankly, most of our investors did take some profit following him.
We made clear descriptions that we will perform settlement weekly, because we believe this is for most investors’ interest and could reduce the risk of being held up for a long period.
And it has proven to be pretty good.
Out of legal consideration, we don’t want to get involved in fiat money.
We just offer Bitcoin deposit/withdrawal.
Members in our platform do transfer to realize trading.
About arbitrage, that’s when you may grasp a good chance.
I may give you an example here: (24th, June)
The BTC price on 796 Exchange is a little bit higher like $7 a few days ago. Cutting fees from both sides and transaction difference, the profit could get to 5% at least.
It is quite simple to achieve this when the price is over 3% more than that of Mt. Gox.
The volume on the platform comes from both sides as you know it’s futures trading.
And we’d like to emphasize that our platform doesn’t participate in trades. All happen among traders themselves.
Sorry for the late response.

[796]

Today’s similar to yesterday’s update. (GMT+8)

The correction shall be area $70-$80. We may decide buy or sell after testing long/short strength. We would advise short the market around $85 for short term. What worth mentioning here is that there’s no enough space within area $70-$80. We would not give advice if there’s no more than 10$ volatility space. However, the space for short sell will be relatively large if the price unexpectedly rises to around 85$.

Thanks!

[796]

today's update: (GMT+8)

From the chart we may see fix trend continues after slump. We predict regular correction at relatively low area and wait for new long/short strength cohesion. On the short term, correction shows strong from 4-hour chart and there’s chance for upward resistance test, but the whole space won’t be too much. We may short sell around 85$ in batches and buy long around 70$ in batches.

Thanks!

[796]

Today's update: (GMT+8)

A strong rally appeared this morning. The correction was strong yesterday evening and the price got recovered promptly and the correction stayed in the higher area after slump. For short term, there will be correction at around 85$. We would advise sell at over 90$ in batches if you want short sell.

Thanks!

[796]

Today's update:(GMT+8)

We could see a strong bounce and there’s chance of expanding space. The correction stays in strong area at night and there shows a sign of rally. The upside resistance area is $95-$100. It’s preferable to short the market in batches. There is over $10 space for operation as to my advice, even if unexpected trend appears, there’s 5$ space at least. I know this may miss lots of opportunities, but it’s important for analysis with conservatism and accuracy.

Thanks!

[796]

Today's update:(GMT+8)

Currently, the correction stays at a higher price. It’s still market correction following the price rise. We may continue to pay attention to the strong and weak key price of $95. We predict that the correction will be around $95 for a little bit long time. It may touch $100-$110 area upwards if the price rises to 95$ and stands stable. Downward short-term support is 90$.

Thanks!

[796]

Today's update:(GMT+8)

From the 4-hour chart, it reveals just like the update from 2 days ago. The strong correction stays at a relatively higher price area. Currently the correction approaches $100 from hour chart. And buy strength is stronger. It will break out to upside any time if correction continues to be at 100$. The upside target area is $110-$115.

Thanks!

[796]

Hi guys,
You may refer to yesterday's update.
Thanks.

[btc237ftw]

very nice post

[796]

Today's update:(GMT+8)

From the 4-hour chart, it reveals just like the update from 2 days ago. The strong correction stays at a relatively higher price area. Currently the correction approaches $100 from hour chart. And buy strength is stronger. It will break out to upside any time if correction continues to be at 100$. The upside target area is $110-$115.

Thanks!

the update on July 16th is still applied.

[796]

very nice post

Thanks.

[Voodah]

Ok, let's follow this for some time and see where it goes.

[Tzupy]

Quoting:  'The upside target area is $110-$115'.
Really? Tell this to the dancing bears! 

[marvinrouge]

very nice post

Predict a rise to 110 and instead having a fall to 80s, I don't know if we can call it a "nice post"... neither "the most reliable analysis"