Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test

[796]

One more time did the blogger offer users the accurate Bitcoin movements yesterday. From May 1st, people who have been keeping an eye on his forecasts on Bitcoin trend have evaded losses from slump and taken more or less profit. If you guys like and trust him, I’ll open a thread here on behalf of him focusing on Bitcoin movement so that you may earn more.
PS: the blogger is my boss and he is also called “ghost trader” in China.

The following analysis quoted from the blogger published at: http://weibo.com/796COM, July 1st (GMT+8)
Bitcoin market movement outlook:
From the 4-hour chart, the current correction price is relatively weak. Standing at $100 has become a strong resistance. It is important to look out for sudden power of selling short when buying long has not effectively shown. If there is no powerful buy orders to pull the price back to $100 above in a short time, a lot of people will begin to sell. The next range should possibly stand at $80-$85.

We could see that the Bitcoin price has been way down beginning from BTC-China and then Mt. Gox. It is also approaching the $80-$85 target range which he mentioned in his blog(see the above). But he did not advise selling at a loss when it is under $90. The price rebounds easily throughout whole night’s persistence in selling short and available for rally. On the other hand, short-term buying long is preferable when it is around $80.


If anyone is interested in this topic, I'll continue to keep it updated.

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[796]

Bitcoin price forecast
Time below are all GMT+8
I’ll keep it updated in time.

From May 1st, 2013, I have been offering Bitcoin price analysis for free.
They could access the most latest Bitcoin price analysis from:
   Sina microblog: http://weibo.com/796COM
   We chat: WWW796COM
   Tencent QQ Group: 181256559

Following are some fulfilled forecast:


On May 1st, I sold all my Bitcoins on Mt. Gox at the price of $134 and then I expressed my view that the uptrend from $52 has come to an end after 24 o’clock. Also, I told all the investors in Tencent QQ Group to sell.

On May 3rd, I said to the investor in QQ Group that they could buy at around $80-$85. Because of fund transfer, I did not buy since I missed the low price chance.

On May 24th, when Bitcoin price stands at $125 of the interim area, I bought more than 2,000 Bitcoins at the price of $128 to do short-term on Mt. Gox. It was just my trading that brought out rapid price uptrend on Mt. Gox.

On May 30th, I sold all my Bitcoins at the average price of $131, since there was no support for buy and also I didn’t think it would be profitable to do medium and long term investment. At the same time, I pointed that the uptrend of the wave from $80 would probably end. I bought at $102 on June 8th and then transferred to BTCCHINA to perform arbitrage. Also, I indicated that there was no need to sell at a loss when it was under $100, while bounces could be expected.Before and after the day 12th and 20th of June, I kept reminding of selling short at around $115.

On July 1st, I posted in microblog:
From the 4-hour chart, the current correction price is relatively weak. Standing at $100 has become a strong resistance. It is important to look out for sudden power of selling short when buying long has not effectively shown. If there is no powerful buy orders to pull the price back to $100 above in a short time, a lot of people will begin to sell. The next range should possibly stand at $80-$85.

And this is from July 2nd blog:
We could see that the Bitcoin price has been way down beginning from BTC-China and then Mt. Gox. It is also approaching the $80-$85 target range which he mentioned in his blog(see the above). But he did not advise selling at a loss when it is under $90. The price rebounds easily throughout whole night’s persistence in selling short and available for rally. On the other hand, short-term buying long is preferable when it is around $80.

I’m Jue sheng qian li( which means win thousands of miles away). It’s my blog name. My real name is Zhurong and I devised the exclusive Bitcoins-based futures for 796 Exchange.It is an exchange that is completely different from any other ones.
I’ve got more than 15 years of experience in financial investment.
I’m happy to share my forecast with Bitcoin funs from all over the world.
If you like, I’d post it here every day.

[796]

Yesterday someone told me that it was not me who was forecasting the trend accurately but my view was affecting the trend. And then he gave me an example: he bought more than 1000BTC from Mt. Gox after he read my blog. Suddenly I realized why I’m over conservative recently and the price forecast is always a little bit deviation.

On June 12th, I forecast the price will sway in the $95-$115 area with high sell and low buy. The result showed $113 tops and $97 low until $115 upside on June 21st.
Support area $80-$85 on July 1st, it closes at $86.
Though the specific price what I referred is just relatively safe and conservative when I was doing short term analysis, I feel maybe I’m becoming older that makes me not so aggressive any longer.

However, I’m not feeling confused and doubting myself any more, because that is not my problem. Everybody should balance the price movement area and operate in batches.
After all, I’m not giving the absolute perfect price. Thus, you guys should think about the risk and control it. You may transact following your way after reading my forecast.

time: GMT+8

[796]

Bitcoin market outlook:
Time: GMT+8
From daily chart, downtrend continues. For medium-term, buy orders could wait till it gets to around $75 after slump. For short term trend, $98 becomes the interim price. Now correction at low needs bounces and could look out for buy power. The possibility of continued downs should be watched out if correction stays at $93 below for a long time. Besides, risk event of USD withdrawal from MTGOX should be paid more attention.

From the 4-hour chart, the Bitcoin price trend should be uptrend and bounce. Short term resistance with $93, $95 and $98 upside. If the correction keeps at low area when it’s time to rally, and long power doesn’t show up, there will be more and more people losing their patience which will lead to slump.

[796]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

[796]

Bitcoin price outlook: (updated at 13:19pm, GMT+8)

After the whole morning’s sell into correction, short strength consumes itself to some extent and gets temporary support after double dip at 75 dollars. Single short term buying at near $75 may wait to sell at around $85. As for the present low 75.12 $ still needs to be looked into before we say it is the lowest level. The breakout below $75 is preferable for buy in batches. No much risk for short term. We don’t advise to cut positions when it is below $80.

Thanks!

[796]

Hi everybody,

today's update (GMT+8)

Bitcoin price has continue to slump in the recent few days. From the trend chart, although it touched 72$ yesterday, there’s no obvious big trading. Thus, we can’t be so sure that 72$ is the lows in these days. We may wait and see.

According to Bitcoin trend chart, the trend should be like this : it is hard to drop in a short term; there should be a period of slow rise which may get to $85-$87; then there will be another bottom process; after that, it will go upward; and then we can predict whether it’s fall in a relay or the beginning of a new wave of rise depending on the long and short strength. We can check the market trend and always remember: sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn't do so.

Thanks!

[796]

Hi everybody,

In the previous post I mentioned that there was no obvious big trading following yesterday’s slump. We can see the previous several bottom features from the chart, in which all accompanying with substantially increased volume and slump. Thus, we still need to observe to decide whether 72$ is the lows in the near future. Since there is no sign of much rise or arbitrage, I had transferred the last Bitcoins worth tens of thousands from MTGOX to BTTC and then sold them all this morning. (GMT+8)


Thanks!

[796]

From Bitcoin trend chart, we will see that the price goes up slowly but down abruptly in earlier period while it’s been down steadily in the recent month. No matter what brings the circumstances, investors are under great pressure. There’s an obvious sign of speculative funds outflow. When it dropped to 72$ yesterday and bounces appeared, there should be uptrend resistance after correction at 80$. However, no rise shows when it’s supposed so and long strength can’t gather.