Bitcoin is Dead

[thermos]

This is what is going to happen with Bitcoins for new users in a few months:

You see this type of new posts? They are typical of new comers:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=248517.0

Now lets see how this would play in the future:

Newbie: So how do I get BC and mine then?

Bitcoiner: Mining

Newbie: So, I have my PC, how do I mine?

BitcoineOr f: Forget it, you can´t really mine anymore with your PC

Newbie: He? Why, I read Bitcoins are mined with computers.

Bitcoiner: That was years ago, when Bitcoins was new. Today you would mine 0,0000000000000000001 bitcoins in a one year. Today Bitcoin is mined with specialized ASIC chips in specific hardware.

Newbie: Ahh, well, I don´t want to buy anything new. I have 3 computers, so I can´t mine?

Bitcoiner: Nop.

Newbie: So how do I get this ASIC device?

Bitcoiner: You can´t. Its on a special pre-order list, they are produced very rarely and you can be months on hold.

Newbie: Ah, no problem, I can wait, I assume I would make bitcoins eventually.

Bitcoiner: Not really, once you get your ASIC device, the mining hash increased so exponentially that you would need 10 devices to even break costs at the point, and since you will be on hold again, good luck....

Newbie: So who is mining bitcoins?

Bitcoiner: Well, there is this XX corporation that has 50 clusters in a datacenter full of ASIC servers and that other foundation that also has a huge cluster that they where growing over the year. They hold most of the bitcoins this days.

Newbie: So only this 2 are mining bitcoins?

Bitcoiner: Yes. Miners are history. They don´t exist anymore.

Newbie: Ok, thanks, this surely looks like a scam


You see the problem? Trust. If bitcoins started like this, today they would not even exist.

This post resumes more or less my point of view as well:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=180020.0

Im not the only one that thinks this is going to destroy the essence of P2P on which Bitcoins is being build. Its supposed to be our network.

Personally I have to admit that more I research Litecoin it not only seems 100 times more secure than Bitcoin but its also designed to prevent this flaw, and reward a P2P system. Its basically improves on Bitcoin itself.

And I have also read several articles about math calculations which show LiteCoin is not even allot more secure but will there be ASIC devices for it? In the future, probably, but they will not be amazingly more powerful than standard computing, to the point it would not deserve investment.

The biggest flaw LiteCoin is attacked now is that their network is small and so more insecure, but this is changing amazingly fast. In particular when all those Bitcoin miners move off to mine LiteCoin.

Also, it seems that LiteCoin was created in particular for being used with standard computing which is what a digital currency should be faithful too.

Also, if this things with ASIC goes bad or good with Bitcoin, regardless of what happens, LiteCoin will be second, so it can learn on the errors of Bitcoin. I see a future where Bitcoin will be used as gold, people are going to hold it, its going to cost allot and its going to be like an investment, and LiteCoin could be actually be the real currency that people use to buy and sell on the Internet.

The second is what I want. Or it could turn really ugly to Bitcoin to the point most people start to lose interest all together, and prices start to plumb more and more.

We don´t know, its all speculation. What is not speculation is that miners which are the foundation of Bitcoin are now building LiteCoins. This is amazingly bad for Bitcoin. Their first users that promoted them are betraying the system, as they see they are kicked out by ASIC devices. Some will buy ASIC devices, some will not bother, some will lose allot in them.

On the end, only the future can tell, but all I know is this. A digital currency which is supposed to be created by users, by a P2P network should be maintained by its users in the long run. Not everyone, I understand that it can´t for ever, but Bitcoin is very new, its not even mature and theirs users are already being alienated. And those buying ASIC devices are really shooting themselves in the foot, if they think they are going to pull out anything off with a few devices.

You need to spend allot on this devices, and even so, you have your days counted. The difficulty at which ASIC devices increases the network is just absolutely ridiculous. Maybe a 50%/50% in the future would could work like suggested in that other post, but right now its moving to full and complete monopoly and by those that where supposed to protect the bitcoins. The same people are destroying it in their needs of unlimited greed.

listen up, can you repeat after me: cryptocurrency coins gold rush NYC;)

[Portnoy]

The term "Revolutionary" has been debased by pitchmen.  Events are only "revolutionary" in hindsight. The fight's still on -- it's just unrest, uprising -- whatever you want to call it.  If Bitcoin wins -- the winners will justly call it revolutionary.  And in a revolution, having the miners on your side is a big win.

It is not revolutionary in that sense... evolutionary may be a better term.  One perhaps would need to be a computer scientist and know the history of digital money to understand it fully.

[thermos]

The current drop is Bitcoin price is probably due to the uncertainty that ASIC miners are creating not the actual ASIC miners themselves. People aren't sure what's going to happen - (especially the GPU Bitcoin miners) so they are likely selling pushing the price down. Once the adjustment period is over, price will likely rebound.

You're missing OP's point:  ASICS don't bring uncertainty, the outcome is *certain.*  If you had a money press that prints real money, why would you sell it?  
Edit: ASICs are, or are claimed to be, these printing presses.  If they make more bitcoins than you pay for them & the juice to run them -- a no-brainer win unless... THE VALUE OF BITCOINS GOES DOWN.  That's the only sound reason to sell the printing press  And they're being made.  And sold.

I think you misunderstood - they create uncertainty in the future of Bitcoin - i.e. will it survive the concentration of mining power that ASICs are being used for?

The real winners of ASICs are the companies that produce and sell them. Anybody mining with ASICs especially those high end ones mentioned will always see a declining return even if Bitcoin remains the same price. It's a losing battle, the more power they add to the network the more difficult if becomes and the less bitcoins they make. This is the reason that ASIC companies simply couldn't produce all their machines and turn them all on to make $$$ - after a couple of days the difficulty would shoot so high that it wouldn't make sense.

That's pretty much my point, but see if this works any better for you:
Premise: Asicminer thinks its rigs, sold to marks at a markup, will still be profitable for the marks.
Conclusion:  Asicminer are fools to sell, they will get more bitcoins by mining with their chips themselves, and if the dollar value of each bitcoin remains the same as it is today, they will get a greater profit.
Corollary:  Either Asicminer are a bunch of noobs, the other miners will not recoup their investment (in bitcoins), or the last option: the value of bitcoin is expected to decrease, so even if the miners get back their investment in bitcoins, those bitcoins will be worth less.  Fail.

By selling now, asic companies have zero interest in longterm stability of the network, zilch.

TL;DR: If it's not profitable for Asicminer to mine with all of their chips, it's certainly unprofitable for anyone else to pay a markup & mine with those same chips.

asicminer is just "shares" of someones' mock stock market printing press NYC;)

[Portnoy]

[...]
I agree about mining however you are missing the whole Idea of bitcoin as being adopted by the people. Who are these people?

How about people who want to send money to anyone they want without some middle man getting in the way and charging a high fee,
or arbitrarily freezing their funds because they don't approve of the transaction... how about merchants who also don't want middle men
charging them high fees as well as not having to worry about chargebacks...  How about migrant workers who want to send money back
to their families...  We will probably see greater adoption in the third world than anywhere else because of its advantages over existing systems. 

I'm not speaking for MooC Tals, but the adopters you've listed just don't seem to be ... adopting.

Have you been paying attention to the news out of Africa in regards to Bitcoin? Have you noticed what is happening in Argentina?
And it is still very early days... hardly anyone knows anything about Bitcoin yet.

 If the existent user base begins to erode (GPU miners shifting to altcoins, etc.), it's hard to see that as good news for Bitcoin as a whole.

I see no signs of this erosion you speculate about... but I see thousands of Asics being sold to very many people, not just big organizations.
I see, and hear about, many developers etc. working on many projects; building the necessary infrastructure to support a wider adoption.

And if Bitcoin doesn't make it none of those scam clone coins will go anywhere either... and how many people are interested in those
shit coins other than get-rich-quick speculators? How many real developers take any of them seriously?   

[thermos]

" How about people who want to send money to anyone they want without some middle man getting in the way and charging a high fee,
or arbitrarily freezing their funds because they don't approve of the transaction... how about merchants who also don't want middle men
charging them high fees as well as not having to worry about chargebacks...  How about migrant workers who want to send money back
to their families...  We will probably see greater adoption in the third world than anywhere else because of its advantages over existing systems.  

Bitcoin is a lot more than some commodity to be traded like gold.  It is people who only see it as that who are missing the whole idea behind Bitcoin.  

Bitcoin is a revolutionary global peer-to-peer decentralized payment system with very low fees. And it works just as well at $1 per BTC as at $1000 per BTC.  "




i agree especially illegal drug traffickers NYC;)

[Portnoy]

" How about people who want to send money to anyone they want without some middle man getting in the way and charging a high fee,
or arbitrarily freezing their funds because they don't approve of the transaction... how about merchants who also don't want middle men
charging them high fees as well as not having to worry about chargebacks...  How about migrant workers who want to send money back
to their families...  We will probably see greater adoption in the third world than anywhere else because of its advantages over existing systems.  

Bitcoin is a lot more than some commodity to be traded like gold.  It is people who only see it as that who are missing the whole idea behind Bitcoin.  

Bitcoin is a revolutionary global peer-to-peer decentralized payment system with very low fees. And it works just as well at $1 per BTC as at $1000 per BTC.  "




i agree especially illegal drug traffickers NYC;)

Yes, and don't underestimate the size, scope and influence of the black market... or what they call "System D" these days.
It accounts for "trillions of dollars in commerce and employs fully half the world’s workers."

Whatever business consenting adults want to carry out among themselves, as long as they are not hurting anyone else ( like governments do all the time ),
is fine with me.

Just because some State creates a law for its own benefit doesn't mean that law is right and moral.
  
But Bitcoin is certainly being embraced by more than just that segment of the global economy.  And even if exchanges and other BTC services get regulated
that will not keep one from using it as a digital p2p currency apart from those things... just like one can use cash - which is still the preferred currency among
drug dealers etc.

[MooC Tals]

" How about people who want to send money to anyone they want without some middle man getting in the way and charging a high fee,
or arbitrarily freezing their funds because they don't approve of the transaction... how about merchants who also don't want middle men
charging them high fees as well as not having to worry about chargebacks...  How about migrant workers who want to send money back
to their families...  We will probably see greater adoption in the third world than anywhere else because of its advantages over existing systems.  

Bitcoin is a lot more than some commodity to be traded like gold.  It is people who only see it as that who are missing the whole idea behind Bitcoin.  

Bitcoin is a revolutionary global peer-to-peer decentralized payment system with very low fees. And it works just as well at $1 per BTC as at $1000 per BTC.  "




i agree especially illegal drug traffickers NYC;)

Yes, and don't underestimate the size, scope and influence of the black market... or what they call "System D" these days.
It accounts for "trillions of dollars in commerce and employs fully half the world’s workers."

Whatever business consenting adults want to carry out among themselves, as long as they are not hurting anyone else ( like governments do all the time ),
is fine with me.

Just because some State creates a law for its own benefit doesn't mean that law is right and moral.
  
But Bitcoin is certainly being embraced by more than just that segment of the global economy.  And even if exchanges and other BTC services get regulated
that will not keep one from using it as a digital p2p currency apart from those things... just like one can use cash - which is still the preferred currency among
drug dealers etc.

You want adoption by the criminal elements? Then you expect it to go on an exchange? You are living in a dream world NEO!

If Gaddafi can't do it then who else can?

[Portnoy]

You want adoption by the criminal elements? Then you expect it to go on an exchange? You are living in a dream world NEO!

You are right I should stick with fiat money, like dollars, which can't be used for criminal activities.    LOL   

[bestmarketer004]

It is too hard. Bitcoin never be a dead coin. Yes, price may be down but it will be live for long time.

[crumbs]

" How about people who want to send money to anyone they want without some middle man getting in the way and charging a high fee,
or arbitrarily freezing their funds because they don't approve of the transaction... how about merchants who also don't want middle men
charging them high fees as well as not having to worry about chargebacks...  How about migrant workers who want to send money back
to their families...  We will probably see greater adoption in the third world than anywhere else because of its advantages over existing systems.  

Bitcoin is a lot more than some commodity to be traded like gold.  It is people who only see it as that who are missing the whole idea behind Bitcoin.  

Bitcoin is a revolutionary global peer-to-peer decentralized payment system with very low fees. And it works just as well at $1 per BTC as at $1000 per BTC.  "




i agree especially illegal drug traffickers NYC;)

Yes, and don't underestimate the size, scope and influence of the black market... or what they call "System D" these days.
It accounts for "trillions of dollars in commerce and employs fully half the world’s workers."

This is both misleading and ridiculous.  Ridiculous because you're quoting a guestimate by an author promoting his book -- an unsubstantiated soundbite quote.  Misleading because he intends it to mean "everyone working off the books, like street vendors, day laborers -- in other words, everyone who doesn't pay taxes.  The guy who sells you hot dogs or fixes your plumbing is not some shady underworld racketeer -- he sure doesn't think of himself as a criminal & isn't interested in money he can't put in his pocket or spread at the corner store.  

Whatever business consenting adults want to carry out among themselves, as long as they are not hurting anyone else ( like governments do all the time ),
is fine with me.

Just because some State creates a law for its own benefit doesn't mean that law is right and moral.

Who are you arguing with?  No one but you brought this up.  

 
But Bitcoin is certainly being embraced by more than just that segment of the global economy.  And even if exchanges and other BTC services get regulated
that will not keep one from using it as a digital p2p currency apart from those things... just like one can use cash - which is still the preferred currency among
drug dealers etc.

When you can walk down to the the corner in Hicksville USA, whip out some bitcoinz and score a bundle from Pedro, shoot me a PM.  Don't think SR = real drug trade.  Think "boutique brand."

[crumbs]

You want adoption by the criminal elements? Then you expect it to go on an exchange? You are living in a dream world NEO!

You are right I should stick with fiat money, like dollars, which can't be used for criminal activities.    LOL   

If you stuck to fiat during the last month, you'd be 50% richer

[foxykah]

I'm really concerned about this 75-76 USD/BTC price, I've bought 11@118, and invested it in ASICMINER shares, now I've lost ~200USD as BTC price went down.

[BitCoinNewGuy]

I'm really concerned about this 75-76 USD/BTC price, I've bought 11@118

You're an idiot, just like everyone else. You are INVESTING in BitCoin just like everyone else. BitCoin was made FOR TRADE and none of that is going on, which is why it is dieing. BitCoin is USELESS.

SELL! SELL! SELL!

[MooC Tals]

You want adoption by the criminal elements? Then you expect it to go on an exchange? You are living in a dream world NEO!

You are right I should stick with fiat money, like dollars, which can't be used for criminal activities.    LOL   

lol That was funny! I use fiat to pay taxes how about you?

[Portnoy]

You want adoption by the criminal elements? Then you expect it to go on an exchange? You are living in a dream world NEO!

You are right I should stick with fiat money, like dollars, which can't be used for criminal activities.    LOL   

lol That was funny! I use fiat to pay taxes how about you?

speaking of criminal activities...

but you trolls are wandering farther and farther off topic and the original topic has been discussed and debated ad nauseum already on these forums so I'm done here.
And if Bitcoin is dead to you and you like your fiat so much what are you trolling around on these forums for?

[MooC Tals]

You want adoption by the criminal elements? Then you expect it to go on an exchange? You are living in a dream world NEO!

You are right I should stick with fiat money, like dollars, which can't be used for criminal activities.    LOL   

lol That was funny! I use fiat to pay taxes how about you?

speaking of criminal activities...

but you trolls are wandering farther and farther off topic and the original topic has been discussed and debated ad nauseum already on these forums so I'm done here.
And if Bitcoin is dead to you and you like your fiat so much what are you trolling around on these forums for?

I see you're upset right now I'll let you calm down so you can think about the shit you just posted there.

[xavier]

I agree that bitcoin will have to move away from P2P. Although I disagree with the OP's reasons for it - because of ASIC... I think it will be because of the blockchain size.

Anyway.

The point about bitcoin is anyone can set up a miner, anywhere (providing they can afford it). What I mean is, they can be totally 100% anonymous and do not require any government control or authorization. This is different to the existing banking system. Also, as long as the network doesnt depend on 1 miner, it's all cool.

What this means is that the network can & will always be supported by 1 or more parties, even if governments turn hostile to it. It's like tor...

So, I do not support OPs claims bitcoin is dead. Infact, I think its more alive than ever..

[MooC Tals]

Edan Yago - The World's First Cryptocurrency-based Political Zone - Bitcoin 2013



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-oySaDJHoI



watch this!^^^Edan Yago has got it right^^^NYC;)

I watched it all and have you noticed that he can't even tell us the country it will reside in? I WONDER WHY THAT IS?

For fuck sakes guys KNOW THEY ENEMY!! 

This is right in our faces and it is the very reason why bitcoin is alive today but for goodness sake wake the fuck up! Understand why bitcoin is being destroyed. It is being attacked by many forces and the miners are the back bone! Just face it and understand it.

[jnagyjr]

Alright. Time to delete all my posts in this thread. It should have died days ago, but now it is getting ridiculous, and I'm tired of getting notified every time someone posts something.

Or you could just unwatch the topic.

[BTCvFiat]

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/07/02/bringing-bitcoin-to-the-mainstream/?_r=0

http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/02/investing/winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/

http://rt.com/business/winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-ipo-520/

 etc....

 Gotta do your research

Ultimately means nothing.
If the OPs post comes to fruition, as without the utilitarian value of Bitcoin (decentralization) they become worthless.
Ansett (as a quick example) were still a profitable stock before their bankruptcy (as all other stocks are prior to this event) provided you sold out before the bankruptcy (holding stocks afterwards is obviously unprofitable or in other words being left with "holding the bag").
Without the core value of decentralization behind Bitcoin, they become worthless so those holding onto stocks in Bitcoin will be holding a different colored bag than the rest of us holding onto the virtual one (wallet files) as that occurs.

Well honestly, would you rather :

Better a free pauper than a rich servant. YMMV.

Well, you must live in the U.S. then.
 But, where I live, I take the money and live freely, not being a servant to anyone... so, your statement dosent make much sense...

US or not, we are all slaves to the Global Reserve Currency (for those playing at home, the USD).

The utility (term mentioned earlier) part of that equation involves a mix between oil (another term coined for the USD is the Petrodollar, though don't tell the Yanks about Iranian Oil and Turkish Gold ...oh wait Syria ) and a large number of US Bases scattered across the globe with the occasional enforcement actions under the guise of the "war on terror" [Libyan Central Bank opened mere hours after the death of Qaddafi, he had some interesting plans for a gold backed currency that caused the US <snip, not federal> Reserve Bank much anxiety].

TL/DR - Without Bullion (Gold, silver and other precious metals) and the online equivalent in Bitcoin (and derivatives for online trade) we are ultimately servants (no matter how flush in fiat you happen to be, it'll be whitled down by the taxman or inflation).

Super short summary: BTC >> USD (and other currencies thereof).

listen up, can you repeat after me: cryptocurrency coins gold rush NYC;)

I've been saying the same thing since I learned about Bitcoins, there are many similarities between the rise from CPU -> GPU -> ASIC mining and traditional mining for Gold.

Rushes start in the same fashion, the initial discovery period and people grabbing whats at hand (CPU), the more experienced prospectors following deep leads and basic Geography (GPU, though today it's more along the lines of "Panning for Gold" as someone else called it) before finally major companies and syndicates perform specialized mining and extraction for tiny amounts per ton of ore (parts per million) that previous miners would have no means of ever achieving themselves (ASICs).

In each step, there was always something new and better than the previous so profits were made by enterprising individuals by not only occasionally using the products being sold (ASIC miners using their machines in brief periods/spurts of time) but by selling products to miners (AMD selling new GPUs, though not specifically to crypto miners, and ASICs selling faster mining tools). Profitability in BTC is there still (well until mining is centralized and the price of a BTC plummets in kind), just that it has shifted from active miners to mining product manufacturing and sales.

With apologies for detracting away from the issue on ASICs, mining and ultimately centralization of BTC being formed.