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Author Topic: CRASH!  (Read 23188 times)
jackjack
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July 02, 2011, 02:12:37 AM
 #81

@GeniuSxBoY: In fact, I sold some and might get put options for the money elsewhere... maybe I'm just a price drop maniac? Cheesy

No... seriously, I think you guys have a p > 60% crash configuration there. Overconfidence-only market with declining public interest and considerable running costs (miners, exchange fees). If you're holding BTC for speculation, you need a good bit of luck now.

But what am I talking about, we're already halfway into a crash. 32 to <16, that's more than a factor 2, yet people fear further drops.
0.01 to 32, that's more than a factor... oh wait!

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RogerR
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July 03, 2011, 12:49:58 AM
 #82


@RogerR, tvbcof:

I'm very much enjoying the chaos ride ever since the 30 USD hike. But why would you take further losses if you guess a crash likely now? You both talk as if you see the crash scenario very likely -- if there are more people like that, another price hike becomes quite improbable. Yet hold at all cost?

I feel the need to elaborate a bit on this one.

My paradigm is the following: I have faith in the future of bitcoins for as long as SHA-xxx cannot be broken and the bitcoin limit of <21mio remains intact!

Current price volatility is based on speculation on the perceived future success of the bitcoin system, and people who amessed great sums of bitcoins willingness to get rid of them en mass without consideration for market dynamics and price stabilization. If all these "cash out only" type of early investors decided to dump all their coins, all it took were a few thousand dedicated believers with a few thousand $ in hand each, to stabilize the BTC price at around $1 (through their dedication serving as decentralized central bank, thus giving them the much argued about lacking fundamental value). If many of them decide to hold onto their bitcoins, the price will automatically increase as less bitcoins remain in circulation (avg price = total systemic value/circulation quantity). Any use of bitcoins beyond those few thousand geeks causes the BTC price to rise and bottom out at way above $1. The more people enter the market, the higher the amount of bitcoins held out of circulation.

The more money is in the hands of the many, the less power single "big player" market participants with the single intend to influence or crash the market possess.

I may not be able to call the bottom of the market, but by not selling my bitcoins I refuse to help lower the price and don't submit to the risk of perhaps failing to jump back on the bandwaggon in time of its inevitably recurrent advance. Thus, holding onto my bitcoins is a viable choice even in the face and expectation of still ongoing price devaluations.
Plus - the more people think and act like me, the less downside risks and incentives to sell in order to buy back at lower prices exists.
StewartJ
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July 03, 2011, 03:37:40 AM
 #83

This is not a day-trading exchange. Looks like the weekly chart data would better support swing trades, i.e. a trade every few days or so, IMHO.

SJ
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July 04, 2011, 03:03:55 PM
 #84

Looks like a nice little crash is happening.  Looks like it may only be another dollar, but hey it's something. 

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July 04, 2011, 03:12:31 PM
 #85

It looks to me like there is a very deliberate attempt to push the prices down.  If whoever is placing these thousand btc asks suddenly cancels there is going to be surge.  For now though I would sit tight and wait for it to drop more.  If you see the big asks get suddenly cancelled then it will be time to buy.
Piper67
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July 04, 2011, 03:21:39 PM
 #86

It looks to me like there is a very deliberate attempt to push the prices down.  If whoever is placing these thousand btc asks suddenly cancels there is going to be surge.  For now though I would sit tight and wait for it to drop more.  If you see the big asks get suddenly cancelled then it will be time to buy.

As long as enough people can trade with zero commissions Mt. Gox will be moving within a narrower than normal range.

Agreed, I think in time we'll look back and realise that the true damage of the Mt.Gox hack was not so much the bad press, but the fact that for a while afterwards people were trading with zero commissions.
dinzy
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July 04, 2011, 03:22:58 PM
 #87

Someone just removed a 20k BTC bid at 14.5.    Sorry it was a display glitch at mtgox live.  Or was it.  confused, it's gone and it happened all at once.

I think this game they have been testing is finally on.
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July 04, 2011, 03:26:17 PM
 #88

Someone just removed a 20k BTC bid at 14.5.    Sorry it was a display glitch at mtgox live. 
It looks like the buyers on Mt. Gox just put in limit orders and took the day off. The market depth is slowly being eaten up as Bitcoins are sold and buy orders are used up.
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July 04, 2011, 03:32:06 PM
 #89

It looks like the buyers on Mt. Gox just put in limit orders and took the day off. The market depth is slowly being eaten up as Bitcoins are sold and buy orders are used up.

I don't think "slowly" is the proper word, it's falling fairly quickly.  If those last few thousand btc buys at 14 get fulfilled prices are going to drop rapidly.  I'm sitting tight waiting to buy.
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July 04, 2011, 03:33:03 PM
 #90

Could be a sign of new rally brewing up
mjoz
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July 04, 2011, 03:36:41 PM
 #91

Could be a sign of new rally brewing up

I think so but it has not started yet, and probably won't while those big asks are out there.  Once it does start though it looks like it is going to gain momentum quickly.
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July 04, 2011, 03:46:11 PM
 #92

Until it's a banking day in the US it'll be tough for buyers to get more capital into the exchanges via Dwolla or whatever.
dinzy
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July 04, 2011, 03:47:39 PM
 #93

Dwolla transfers take 3 days. The delay is so long that you are either in, or out.  Many people have money in already and are just waiting. 
peach
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July 04, 2011, 03:49:14 PM
 #94

...and the rebound has begun.

DO IT
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GeniuSxBoY
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July 04, 2011, 03:55:26 PM
 #95

how low will it go?
peach
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July 04, 2011, 03:56:15 PM
 #96

how low will it go?

It bottomed @ 14.2. It's rebounding now, however.

DO IT
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mjoz
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July 04, 2011, 04:05:05 PM
 #97

how low will it go?

It bottomed @ 14.2. It's rebounding now, however.

A little rally at least.  There is just too many coins on the market between 15 and 16 for it to gain any real traction.
GeniuSxBoY
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July 04, 2011, 04:09:24 PM
 #98

Someone just unloaded a shitload of btc.


I have a feeling if someone unloaded a shitload of dollars, those big btc orders will cancel and move them higher
Bitcoin Swami
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July 04, 2011, 04:13:04 PM
 #99

I think its great the the big early holders are getting rid of their early holdings.. leveling out the playing field.  Better sooner than later. Smiley
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July 04, 2011, 04:21:17 PM
 #100

You guys have to realize that large swings are the nature of the bitcoin market right now. The order books aren't deep enough to absorb movement either way, so we have higher volatility as a result.

Like I said elsewhere, you can't expect to stay sane if you obsess over every damn wiggle.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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