This graphic was posted 3 years ago and predicted the $10,000 date

[thejaytiesto]

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

It seems this is the original source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2p6vzc/this_is_probably_the_most_accurate_price/

Was it our resident poster "americanpegasus"? well congrats on this one.

[1714792259]

1714792259

[bitcoinisbest]

I am just wondering how accurate it can be. Like predicting the date and the price almost matching similarly. But unfortunately had this being bough a month ago would have bough btc so that had made some money in this bull run. Now will have to see how much correct it can go in future.

[Idrisu]

This is beautiful and view this chart shown all the movement we have seeing so far and the projected future. If bitcoin will get to $100,000 by 2021 then I think we should hold what we have now. I saw the price crossing  $11,000 without even no single limitations.

[CornCube]

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-thumbnail.s3.amazonaws.com/DQmdGvoGK4VEZiKWpKm9Zav5wYyDmyHC5mWzFJL75jBZmaK_1680x8400

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

Notice the actual green price has always overshot that red projection on peaks.

Thus shouldn't we expect BTC to go significantly above $10,000 (perhaps as high as $25,000 - $40,000) within next weeks or months before crashing?

Note I'm not making a prediction. Yet this dip from $11k to $9k feels like not the start of bear market yet to me. The alts such as LTC still stuck below 0.01 BTC, either haven't made their final move yet w.r.t. to BTC (or already made it), being another clue that maybe BTC has not lost momentum yet.

[Coffee135]

If you look at the graph of 2017, it does have figures of $ 10,000. But on this schedule at the end of 2016, the price had to be above $ 4,000. This is absolutely not true. The price was lower. Never look at the part graphics. Look at the entire schedule. I think he can't be trusted.

[FlatTime]

Well if this is true it means mcafee will be eating his own dick on tv because it will only be $100k by 2020 and he said 1 mil.

[CornCube]

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-thumbnail.s3.amazonaws.com/DQmdGvoGK4VEZiKWpKm9Zav5wYyDmyHC5mWzFJL75jBZmaK_1680x8400

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

Notice the actual green price has always overshot that red projection on peaks.

Thus shouldn't we expect BTC to go significantly above $10,000 (perhaps as high as $25,000 - $40,000) within next weeks or months before crashing?

Note I'm not making a prediction. Yet this dip from $11k to $9k feels like not the start of bear market yet to me. The alts such as LTC still stuck below 0.01 BTC, either haven't made their final move yet w.r.t. to BTC (or already made it), being another clue that maybe BTC has not lost momentum yet.

Here was an updated version of the chart, but note that as the green price has risen since the chart below was computed (and if will continue to rise) then the red line will rise again (thus only in retrospect will we see that the red line was higher at the end of the bubble than we projected it to be):

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:
https://s3.postimg.org/kmzui60kj/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg

I agreed with the following:

“This is going to become the biggest bubble of our lifetimes by a long shot,” Novogratz said at an industry conference in New York. “There will be wild crashes in it.”

Late Monday, Novogratz predicted on CNBC bitcoin could ‘easily’ reach $40,000 by the end of next year.

We have confluence of several factors, which are fundamentally driving the current bubble higher.

These create a PUBLIC CONFIDENCE in the bubble which spreads it to the general public. I have many people telling them what everyone they know is becoming aware of the Bitcoin bubble. Someone wrote that exchanges are adding 500K new accounts per day (is that correct?!!). IOW, we’re going to overshoot by a country mile any sane rate of price rise, before we crash down hard and long. The fundamentals are too strong and there’s far too small of a marketcap right now in crypto, compared to the global interest level. And altcoins will sometimes make their runs w.r.t. BTC (e.g. BCH from 0.05 to 0.3+ as I predicted), so diversifying some to alts and then taking profits when they go vertical is a wise strategy. Appears smart investors can extract another 5 – 10 bagger out of this crypto bull before the next winter. First all the old-timers need to sell too early, get jealous and repurchase. This bubble has to make fools of everyone and shock everyone before it will be over.

Perhaps we’re roughly at the analogous level where that volatility got more intense as BTC crossed $400 going vertical in 2013. It continued on to rise ~3X higher.

Wallstreet is coming into Bitcoin:

Nasdaq Inc plans to launch a futures contract based on bitcoin in 2018, making it the third exchange operator to plan U.S. derivatives contracts linked to the digital currency

Nasdaq has teamed up with New York-based money manager VanEck to develop the futures contract, which will be cleared by the Options Clearing Corporation. The OCC clears all Nasdaq futures products, the source said.

VanEck had applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year to launch a bitcoin-related exchange-traded fund, but withdrew the request in September after speaking with SEC staff, according to a regulatory filing.

The SEC requested that VanEck wait until the underlying instruments in which the ETF planned to primarily invest - bitcoin futures contracts - become available for investment, the filing said.

And it will enable them to take a greater interest in expanding the number of sheep in Bitcoin as they will be able to extract much of the value out of the ecosystem by front running futures markets:

Since miners have direct access to all "insider information", I believe they could use Bitcoin futures aggressively going forward.

Investors are transitioning from real-estate globally into movable assets:

The high-end real estate boom is now turning sour. We are looking at property values declining in London, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, New York, and even Miami. The shift will now turn toward MOVABLE assets as capital departs from the fixed asset class.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your post of November 16th where you state that the ECB is looking to freeze accounts in a banking crisis, does that mean they will no longer honour the claimed insurance of €100,000 per account?

ANSWER: No. They will not pretend to eliminate that insurance, they just will “suspend” it as a bank holiday. But you gloss over another problem. The insurance of  €100,000 will NOT be honoured per account, but PER PERSON. The US FDIC insurance is also per person when you dig deeper. Europe will also change that on a discretionary basis. The ECB is proposing supplementing it with discretionary powers to suspend bank withdrawals. It reflects the realization that the European banking system is in serious trouble. I recommend that Europeans should have a stash of cash, and if you have a lot of cash in your account, put some into dollars in the States before it is too late.

Also the international dollar carry trade short squeeze vortex will send capital stampeding out of the Eurozone (and other peripheral economies) and into the dollar, US stocks, and Bitcoin via Wallstreets foray into Bitcoin:

Yes, the French bank Société Générale announced a massive staff reduction jobs. The chairman of the board Frederic Oudea, said that the entire banking industry in Europe is facing serious cuts and the withdrawal of Société Générale is preparing for turbulent times that await us beginning in 2018.

More and more major concerns need us to address the restructuring of the monetary system they can see is coming.

The tide is turning and it is a hard turn.

Nobody will address the issues in advance. Thus, we are being called in by banks who see the handwriting on the wall and want to survive the chaos.

The Royal Bank of Canada (RPC) has been added to the list of the top 30 banks posing the greatest risk. The top US bank is JP Morgan which is now the only bank required to hold an extra 2.5% of common equity after its US peer Citigroup moved down a tier required to hold 2% extra.

All of this is very nice, but also misleading. The Stress Tests by no means are realistic. It is assuming a single failure and certainly does not even take into consideration a CONTAGION, which nobody understands and there have been no models that will even simulate such events outside of what we have specialized in. The CONTAGION is what created the Great Depression

If you look at the graph of 2017, it does have figures of $ 10,000. But on this schedule at the end of 2016, the price had to be above $ 4,000. This is absolutely not true. The price was lower.

Obviously the green line price never exactly tracks the red line projection. The red line represents a level the bubbles must peak above.

Actually many holders of bitcoin got very huge profit after the trade with 10k$ price.This is expected one for many investors.

Indeed, we expected many people who had long-term capital gains to take profits at $10k.

But all I am scared of are the big picture where names like Wall Street are waiting to enter this market through CME's futures that will allow users to short on bitcoins at a greater pace as well. Everyone is looking at this the positive way, but don't forget that each "bit"coin has two sides.

Yup, but they need a larger and larger marketcap to steal from. Volatility can increase as they try to front run insider news they create to profit off the gyrations, but overall they want the market cap to grow.

[gatti]

If you look at the graph of 2017, it does have figures of $ 10,000. But on this schedule at the end of 2016, the price had to be above $ 4,000. This is absolutely not true. The price was lower. Never look at the part graphics. Look at the entire schedule. I think he can't be trusted.

Bro it just takes one more years to achieve.But 10,000$ is very high value,so it take long period to achieve.Actually ,this is the short time to achieve before then I had thought.Actually many holders of bitcoin got very huge profit after the trade with 10k$ price.This is expected one for many investors.

[Stedsm]

The prediction that was made could be defined "incredible" as the date mentioned was so accurate it did reach there the same day, which means that 2021 could be the year of a bigger, much better party. But all I am scared of are the big picture where names like Wall Street are waiting to enter this market through CME's futures that will allow users to short on bitcoins at a greater pace as well. Everyone is looking at this the positive way, but don't forget that each "bit"coin has two sides.

[South Park]

If you look at the graph of 2017, it does have figures of $ 10,000. But on this schedule at the end of 2016, the price had to be above $ 4,000. This is absolutely not true. The price was lower. Never look at the part graphics. Look at the entire schedule. I think he can't be trusted.

No one should base his investments in this chart or any chart, but if you look at the chart you see a red line and a green line it is obvious the green line is not going to follow exactly the red line, sometimes bitcoin was undervalued and sometimes was overvalued but the general trajectory of the prediction has been more or less right.

[MickeyT2008]

And it says that the price was over $4,300 by the beggining of this year, and it is fake, because it was less than $800 when the year started.

Anyway, it is fine, we are not looking for accurate speculations, because they dont exist, and if someone tells you that they are 100% sure about the price in just a few months, they are lying.

But do you really think that we are going to see a price over 100 thousand dollars? i see it very difficult, who knows if all the big whales are going to sell out at 50k? we can not speculate over that.

if they decide to do so, then the price is obviously going to crash.

[spazzdla]

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

Notice the actual green price has always overshot that red projection on peaks.

Thus shouldn't we expect BTC to go significantly above $10,000 (perhaps as high as $25,000 - $40,000) within next weeks or months before crashing?

Note I'm not making a prediction. Yet this dip from $11k to $9k feels like not the start of bear market yet to me. The alts such as LTC still stuck below 0.01 BTC, either haven't made their final move yet w.r.t. to BTC (or already made it), being another clue that maybe BTC has not lost momentum yet.

I would tend to agree with this.  How low do you think we fall back..?  2-4k?

[CornCube]

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-thumbnail.s3.amazonaws.com/DQmdGvoGK4VEZiKWpKm9Zav5wYyDmyHC5mWzFJL75jBZmaK_1680x8400

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

Notice the actual green price has always overshot that red projection on peaks.

Thus shouldn't we expect BTC to go significantly above $10,000 (perhaps as high as $25,000 - $40,000) within next weeks or months before crashing?

Note I'm not making a prediction. Yet this dip from $11k to $9k feels like not the start of bear market yet to me. The alts such as LTC still stuck below 0.01 BTC, either haven't made their final move yet w.r.t. to BTC (or already made it), being another clue that maybe BTC has not lost momentum yet.

I would tend to agree with this.  How low do you think we fall back..?  2-4k?

Also notice the corrections have been getting shallower and shorter in duration.

https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd (choose 1D chart time period)

Btw set the above chart to logarithmic Y axis to get a less emotional view of the recent price action!

-40%: June 11 - July 16
-40%: Sept 1 - 15
-33%: Nov 7 - 12
-22%: Nov 29 - 30 (presuming the bottom of the correction is already in)

Thus if the $8800 bottom of current correction holds, then we can see that the bubble is accelerating (i.e. corrections are shallower and shorter in duration), so it means the blow-off top is likely coming now in December.

However, if we instead stall here at this level with a horizontal trading range, then we would be forming a new plateau from which to rise higher in 2018. In that case, the altcoins would likely accelerate w.r.t. BTC as they normally do when BTC stalls.

I’m hoping for the stall because I hold some altcoins. Given that altcoins such as LTC have not yet made their run to 0.03 - 0.5, I think it is possible that BTC needs to plateau first. However, altcoins such as BCH already had significant runs to 0.3+. There is so much going on with Wallstreet (Mainstreet of the investor world) coming into cryptocurrency, I have a difficult time believing this level is the blow off top already. However, I do think BTC is a bit hyperventilated and ahead of itself, and probably needs to stall for a while here. If so, then my altcoins should do well, as BTC investors diversify out temporary.

Possible reasons for the plateauing and stall would be that BTC has finally reached the 10X threshold from the last bubble peak 2013. $10,000 was a pyschological level. Perhaps also to take breather while the Wallstreet futures are implemented and require some time to ramp up.

A major risk to the crypto sector remains SEC action against ICOs, but the government probably moves slowly. They probably also need to coordinate with other major governments. They might also be waiting for the European Mifid II financial services regulation to come into effect in 2018.

If we could establish a new plateau here at $10,000, that would also form the likely extent of the bottom of any future crypto winter. If not, then yes anything above the 2013 peak could be the bottom.

So what we have right now is probably a battle between those afraid of crash to $2k and those who think BTC has much more room to run in 2018. Thus that contention would be another reason for a stall as the bears and bulls slug it out. Rather at the blowoff top, too many newbies should be very bullish and the smart money will be pulling the rug without saying anything.

I am not certain. We could have seen the blowoff top already at $11,400.

To put this all into more perspective, view the logarithmic chart for the entire BTC history:

https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/

You can see the peakiness/verticalness of BTC is declining on each bubble. We have a much more stable and epic move in BTC now, than those prior nascent overaccelerations. And the reason is of course widespread adoption as a financial speculation.

That logarithmic chart makes me think we have another year or more to go on an epic run for crypto as everybody and his 5th uncle realizes they want to get into this new phenomenon that has increased from $10 in 2013 to $10,000 in 2017. IOW looking at the logarithmic chart, for us old timers who got in at $10, we see a relatively calm rise in the price over a long-enough period of time, but  for the newbies coming in they think the price rise is insane, as they’re comparing it to other large marketcap paradigms such as the stock market. They would not be comparing BTC to a pinksheet stock, because an individual pinkshit stock doesn’t have a $200B mcap. An individual pinkshit stock wouldn’t have the widespread public awareness that Bitcoin has.

Look at this following updated version of the chart from the OP (sorry images aren't displaying on my posts bcz I’m a “newbie" lol who has been here since 2013):

Update 2017-01-03:
https://s3.postimg.org/kmzui60kj/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg

The slope (trajectory) of the curve on the dip between 2013 until 2017 was less vertical then from 2011 to 2013. This gives me another thought for the possible outcome at this juncture. We may have indeed topped out at $11,400, but the green price curve for the dip could be much more shallower and more horizontal basically hugging the red line. As I had already stated, mathematically I expect the red line to adjust upwards compared to that quoted updated chart above (presuming the author will update it?), given the rise of the price since that quoted chart was computed on January 3, 2017. Such would be consistent with the plateauing that occurred in 2013 which lead to another peak later in 2013 which was 5X higher in price.

Another thought is the eventual death of altcoins? If Bitcoin scales out (at least in terms of the use case of financial speculation and altcoins never really deliver adoption otherwise), then perhaps the marketcap of Bitcoin rises to dominate the altcoins again? Which had not been the case until June 15 when the Scalepocalypse was muted with the NYA agreement on SegWit. But since early Nov this reversal stalled presumably due to the failure of SegWit2X and the pump of BCH:

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

So does that reversal resume and the altcoins continue to diminish w.r.t. to Bitcoin with SegWit, or not because 1MB is insufficient for transaction volume scaling even with Lightning Networks? I’m betting altcoins still have another run w.r.t. BTC and BTC is overheated at $11,400. I’m not sure if BTC to $25k first or after such. My vision is that we have a big mess and the speculation is far ahead of the reality of adoption as a payment system. So I think we get more speculation in altcoins and we get an overshoot for BTC in 2018 to $25+k, then the SEC and other major governments attack ICOs, Wallstreet will be short, most of the altcoins go to ~0 because they're difficult to short, and the entire sectors moves down but not so extremely so as in 2011 and 2014. If we reach $40k, then maybe we correct down to $10k. The more shorting, the more buying support on the way down. Again this means most altcoins are going to end up empty bags in the end game, unless they have some capability that Bitcoin does not which is had widespread use case. But short term altcoins may have another run. Longer-term the speculations will move from altcoins more to ecosystem startups as BTC dominance is established and the BTC price is rising more slowly as time goes on, thus an actual regulated crowdfunding investment model. The wildcard is the potential for theft of SegWit by miners in cahoots with whales due to the “pay to anyone” feature of SegWit, restoring the immutability of Satoshi’s protocol.


Thoughts?

Hard to see this as a blowoff top. Too much going on with users finally taking their first steps jumping in, and all of the activity toward regulated crypto derivatives.

Wallstreet is bringing in the sheep now. No way they will shoot the goose that is laying the golden egg until they’re massively short.

Read this:

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-declines-9200-factors-another-strong-rally/

Investors with large size can’t enter an investment until they see an exit strategy. Now with the liquid derivatives coming, they have that exit strategy. So now Bitcoin moves up to a much larger scale of markecap.

[kaya11]

My hands were shaking when I saw this graph as if it tells me to grab more BTC. This man nailed it straight, is this man still alive until now ? I really want to shake his hands and give me my personal regards.
Then if the graph he showed to us will predict the price of bitcoin in 2020 and in the next more years to come, whta would become of us if only we can hold for at least 10 BTC. He was hacked recently and now resolving the issue, we wait for further notice.

[jimbo2000]

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

It seems this is the original source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2p6vzc/this_is_probably_the_most_accurate_price/

Was it our resident poster "americanpegasus"? well congrats on this one.

Pretty incredible but given all of the many graphs and predictions it's pretty likely one of them was going to get it right. Still it will be interesting to follow his graph for a while and see how well it holds up for the following months or years.

[thejaytiesto]

Ok this is my overall view:

In late 2018 to early 2019, fancy LN wallets that even your grandma will be able to use will be starting to be widespread, which will look like this:

https://webmshare.com/OXNbm

This will alleviate people complaining about high fees and slow transaction times. Note that most people are idiots that leave their coins in Coinbase, so if they just want to transact bitcoin, they just care about the bitcoin going from A to B really fast and cheap, and these wallets will allow for that. Anyone with real capital in bitcoin doesn't care about that, but even myself if I wanted to pay 10 bucks with bitcoin, would use LN because I don't really care that much about having army grade encryption + maximized decentralization to send 10 bucks around the world. LN may be a decent tradeoff for such small amounts. So with the mainstream users happy, and with the big capital also happy because no blocksize increase, I think we could keep going higher. Of course it's yet to be seen how viable this is to maintain with 1MB as more and more blocks get filled with LN transactions and then we'll have new drama when the whales oppose to hardfork once again to increase the blocksize but we'll see how it goes.

Of course the segwit risk is still there... but I haven't seen "the whales" supporting BCH and are staying legacy, so they must have a plan and it doesn't include altcoins. In any case im keeping a decent amount of BCH because I have a gut feeling which may be ridiculous but here we go: I think CSW has satoshi's keys..  (or some) even if he isn't satoshi, he was part of the thing. These funds must be locked somewhere until X years, maybe to avoid tax related stuff since after 10 years in some countries tax crimes expire (I think). Another reason why I think he was involved is because satoshi released bitcoin on windows, and he comes across as a "windows guy". And of course, I doubt CSW is stupid enough to try to pull a satoshi and take it this far if he didn't knew that the real part of the satoshi "team" wasn't dead, or allowed him to play this role, otherwise he would be at constant risk of being ridiculed by the real satoshi.
If he (or they) moves some coins in 2020, BCH may pump and who knows the consequences of that. Of course maybe this is incredibly stupid and nothing happens, it's just another theory that I have. If after 2020 CSW has not provided real proof of being satoshi, then we can totally discard that he has anything but a bluff.

[alyssa85]

And it says that the price was over $4,300 by the beggining of this year, and it is fake, because it was less than $800 when the year started.

Anyway, it is fine, we are not looking for accurate speculations, because they dont exist, and if someone tells you that they are 100% sure about the price in just a few months, they are lying.

But do you really think that we are going to see a price over 100 thousand dollars? i see it very difficult, who knows if all the big whales are going to sell out at 50k? we can not speculate over that.

if they decide to do so, then the price is obviously going to crash.

It got the trend right. As for the "big whales" - the hedge funds have billions at their disposal and dwarf all the whales. And most hedge funds are kicking themselves this year because they missed the big trade of 2017.

[dothebeats]

Funny how everyone was so negative about the projections made by the OP back then. Right now, almost everyone--including the non-believers at Wall Street--are now looking to bank on the bitcoin craze with their own investments. I feel like everyone right now is on the verge of making stupid decisions just so that they wouldn't miss on the craze of bitcoin they ignored back when it was struggling to get a boost in 2014. We're on the stage of people pouring over their hard-earned money into something they don't fully understand because successful investors (with testaments) tell them so. This will still cause another massive gains in prices and could still follow the projections made by the OP of the graph.

The momentum hasn't shifted for the bears' favor yet. This is all bulls' game for the next years to come and Wall Street would make it look more promising.

[warrior333]

I am sure that bitcoin price will grow another few years. It seems to me that the reason for this is not only the whales. It involved the American government. Perhaps they began to turn the bitcoin bubble in order to gather in it the entire American debt and collapse prices. This will allow them to zero out us debt. We will wait for the capitalization of bitcoin will amount to billions.

[phreakk]

This is impressive. Notice how it almost nailed it with the prediction, what the fuck man, that's pretty amazing. Now we just have to wait and see if this follows and we get to $100,000 by 2021, that would be sweet.

It seems this is the original source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2p6vzc/this_is_probably_the_most_accurate_price/

Was it our resident poster "americanpegasus"? well congrats on this one.

That was quite an insanely accurate $10k prediction. The price at the beginning of 2017 was off A LOT though... And basically everything else between then and now. Only their $10k prediction was accurate...

So, although this is quite an impressive prediction, it's not useful for the future, as it's not accurate most of the time.

If it's correct, I'd be very happy though