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qualia8
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June 30, 2011, 11:27:02 PM
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What will you do if bitcoins drop to $5 but hold very steady there for the next two years.  Assume that the bitcoin economy grows, slowly and steadily, all that time and that mining remains profitable, but only marginally so as difficulty adjusts as soon as more GPU power comes online.

(1) Late-arriving speculators will leave for some other market with more action.

(2) Casual miners will quit because the returns won't be worth the hassle -- heat and noise of mining and capital sunk into rigs.

(3) Entrepreneurs in the bitcoin universe will be happy, as will mainstream vendors.

(4) True believers will be thrilled as the currency takes hold knowing that bitcoin will eventually upend the existing structures of commerce and government.

What's your reaction?  And which of (1)-(4) are you?
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MoonShadow
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June 30, 2011, 11:28:55 PM
 #2

4

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
MeSarah
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June 30, 2011, 11:33:07 PM
 #3

What if you went blind, deaf, and had your feet and hands cut off. Would you still want to trade in btc and if so how would you?

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June 30, 2011, 11:35:15 PM
 #4

What if you went blind, deaf, and had your feet and hands cut off. Would you still want to trade in btc and if so how would you?

Braile marque using my nose?

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
SlaveInDebt
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June 30, 2011, 11:37:04 PM
 #5

What if you made a poll?

Option 4 btw

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June 30, 2011, 11:38:01 PM
 #6

At the beginning, before it started looking like it was gonna hold at that price for a long time, i would probably be buying quite a bit more than i would if the price kept going up from now.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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qualia8
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June 30, 2011, 11:39:35 PM
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What will you do if bitcoins drop to $5 but hold very steady there for the next two years.  Assume that the bitcoin economy grows, slowly and steadily, all that time and that mining remains profitable, but only marginally so as difficulty adjusts as soon as more GPU power comes online.

I believe that there is a built-in contradiction in your scenario: the
basic theory behind fiat currencies is that the rate at which currency
is created should correspond to the rate at which wealth is created
(goods, services, etc ...) for it to remain stable wrt other currencies.

Apply this premise to your scenario: how can the economy grow and
the currency drop ? The only two ways that can happen are:

     - the bitcoin economy grows exactly at the same pace BTC are minted -- unlikely IMO

     - the USD value drops fast enough to compensate for the delta between BTC mint rate and bitcoin economy growth rate
       Possible, but also unlikely.



 


Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative.  Suppose the bubble "bursts", but still some speculators remain.  Those speculators leave at the same time as real BTC economy grows.  Thus the price remains steady at $5.  Unlikely?  Yes.  Impossible?  No.

qualia8
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June 30, 2011, 11:40:16 PM
 #8

What if you went blind, deaf, and had your feet and hands cut off. Would you still want to trade in btc and if so how would you?

Yes, and that still leaves one un-amputated appendage.
MoonShadow
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June 30, 2011, 11:41:58 PM
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Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative. 

You can't possiblely know this to be true.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
MeSarah
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June 30, 2011, 11:55:47 PM
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What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by MacGruber how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?


Edit: Fixed name.

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July 01, 2011, 12:02:02 AM
 #11

What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by McGroover how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?
I and The Professor would build a bitminer out of coconuts and a wireless internet connection. We would wait for rescuers so we can then buy the island and develop a resort for rich people like us.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
CurbsideProphet
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July 01, 2011, 12:02:27 AM
 #12



Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative. 

You can't possiblely know this to be true.

Of course you can.  There's very little medium of exchange for Bitcoin so the value represented is based on the speculation of it's future adoption/uses.

1ProphetnvP8ju2SxxRvVvyzCtTXDgLPJV
MoonShadow
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July 01, 2011, 12:02:32 AM
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What if you went on a 3 hour boat tour, got lost at sea in a storm and ended up and an uncharted tropical deserted island with no communications. You had a comb, pocket knife, baling wire, duct tape, some WD-40 and you were taught by McGroover how to improvise in any situation. What would you do next so that you can mine and trade bitcoins?

Build a new boat.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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July 01, 2011, 12:10:18 AM
 #14

Didn't the Mythbusters build a boat with a similar set of materials?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
MoonShadow
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July 01, 2011, 12:14:07 AM
 #15

Didn't the Mythbusters build a boat with a similar set of materials?

And the engine, just for giggles.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
TiagoTiago
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July 01, 2011, 12:20:22 AM
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Engine? I think it was a sailboat....

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
MeSarah
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July 01, 2011, 12:37:06 AM
 #17

What if you had a fetus in fetu named Quasimodo that could see the furture and he didnt tell you about the bitcoin price drop. What would you do?

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July 01, 2011, 12:39:19 AM
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Question


Answer:
Just ask Jesus.
bitcoiners
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July 01, 2011, 12:54:02 AM
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Question


Answer:
Just ask Jesus.

I like to picture Jesus as a figure skater. He wears like a white outfit, and He does interpretive ice dances of my life's journey.
dennis_sweden
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July 01, 2011, 01:16:04 AM
 #20



Here's the thought.  Most of current value is speculative. 

You can't possiblely know this to be true.

Of course you can.  There's very little medium of exchange for Bitcoin so the value represented is based on the speculation of it's future adoption/uses.

Agreed, Bitcoin does not even store wealth, although this claim has been made on this forum. Bitcoin has lost ca: $1.5 since Mtgox opened; anyone looking to preserve wealth would be wise to stay away from Bitcoin at this stage. Also, the value of Bitcoin was, according to what I have heard, stable for a long period of time, before appreciating during the spring. The only way that an apreciation could have occurred that is not due to speculation would be if the marketplace/usability of Bitcoin had grown substantially.

How can you tell when a politician is lying? His lips are moving. A little girl asked her father, 'do all fairy tales begin with "Once upon a time"? The father replied, 'No, some begin with - If I am elected.' How come political leaders don't have all the answers until they write their memoirs?
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