My Prediction

[jhansen858]

I predict that bitcoin price will slowly decrease over the next 3 - 6 months hitting some low of $50 maybe even lower with some panic selling going on.  This will continue until the hash rate of bitcoin stabilizes.  At that time, the price will start creeping back up for a while before experiencing another bubble.  This will happen in the next 12-16 months where the new floor will be in a higher tier, maybe in the 300 - 500 range. 

A few things to consider:

1) Right now coins are flooding the market.  All these new mining machines that are getting shipped need to be paid for.  If I were mining off a huge debt I would most likely be trying to recoup my initial investment asap after getting the new machine. 

2) This is causing some fear in the market which is causing others to lose faith and reduce their positions in the market.

3) as soon as the hash rate stabilizes, this basically means most people have gotten their asics by now.  Many people have been paid back.  I think at this point, I would switch my strategy back to holding.

4) By this point the price has dropped and hits a bottom where it looks like its going to start going back up.  Lots of people who were lurking will start buying back in increasing their positions. 

5) By this time, all the people who lost faith last time will realize its a good time to get back in.

6) Repeat the last bubble but with bigger money coming in.  More business is established, laws are made clear, the bitcoin economy works better each time this happens. 

7) mania kicks in and we see another bubble.  Soon the mining reward will get cut in half.  The reality of how scarce coins are really starts to take hold.  Shit gets crazy. 

Thoughts?

[worldinacoin]

I predict that the Bitcoin price is between 1 Satoshi cent and $1 trillion dollars.   Come on there is already enough of such prediction threads.

[blackreplica]

Sounds plausible to me...only wonder where it bottoms out

[jhansen858]

I predict that the Bitcoin price is between 1 Satoshi cent and $1 trillion dollars.   Come on there is already enough of such prediction threads.

So I get trash talked for making an economic speculation post in the economic speculation board?  Thats a new one.

[Itcher]

Soon the mining reward will get cut in half.  The reality of how scarce coins are really starts to take hold.  Shit gets crazy. 

Doesn't this happen at the beginning of 2013? I thought we are in the second reward era ...

However: If mining rewards is cut in half, it doesn't mean "scarce coins". Untill 2017 more than a million each year will be created, this is an inflation between 7 and 10 percent - a lot more than dollar and euro.

[naphto]

I predict that the Bitcoin price is between 1 Satoshi cent and $1 trillion dollars.   Come on there is already enough of such prediction threads.

How could a bitcoin be worth 1 satoshi cent?!

[worldinacoin]

I predict that the Bitcoin price is between 1 Satoshi cent and $1 trillion dollars.   Come on there is already enough of such prediction threads.

So I get trash talked for making an economic speculation post in the economic speculation board?  Thats a new one.

Show me your data, your graphs, your analysis.  Economic Speculation itself is just trash

[jhansen858]

I predict that the Bitcoin price is between 1 Satoshi cent and $1 trillion dollars.   Come on there is already enough of such prediction threads.

So I get trash talked for making an economic speculation post in the economic speculation board?  Thats a new one.

Show me your data, your graphs, your analysis.  Economic Speculation itself is just trash

Does the fact I have been watching just about every source of information available daily for the last 2 years count?

[tokeweed]

I predict that bitcoin price will slowly decrease over the next 3 - 6 months hitting some low of $50 maybe even lower with some panic selling going on.  This will continue until the hash rate of bitcoin stabilizes.  At that time, the price will start creeping back up for a while before experiencing another bubble.  This will happen in the next 12-16 months where the new floor will be in a higher tier, maybe in the 300 - 500 range. 

A few things to consider:

1) Right now coins are flooding the market.  All these new mining machines that are getting shipped need to be paid for.  If I were mining off a huge debt I would most likely be trying to recoup my initial investment asap after getting the new machine. 

2) This is causing some fear in the market which is causing others to lose faith and reduce their positions in the market.

3) as soon as the hash rate stabilizes, this basically means most people have gotten their asics by now.  Many people have been paid back.  I think at this point, I would switch my strategy back to holding.

4) By this point the price has dropped and hits a bottom where it looks like its going to start going back up.  Lots of people who were lurking will start buying back in increasing their positions. 

5) By this time, all the people who lost faith last time will realize its a good time to get back in.

6) Repeat the last bubble but with bigger money coming in.  More business is established, laws are made clear, the bitcoin economy works better each time this happens. 

7) mania kicks in and we see another bubble.  Soon the mining reward will get cut in half.  The reality of how scarce coins are really starts to take hold.  Shit gets crazy. 

Thoughts?

trend down = sell

trend up = buy

that simple.