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医保议案投票取消 美股尾盘跌幅收窄 标普创年内最大单周跌幅
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Topic: 医保议案投票取消 美股尾盘跌幅收窄 标普创年内最大单周跌幅 (Read 103 times)
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医保议案投票取消 美股尾盘跌幅收窄 标普创年内最大单周跌幅
November 30, 2017, 03:17:42 PM
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美股周五的走势可谓跌宕起伏。三大指数早盘跳空高开,道指午盘前最高上扬55点。但午盘时,国会众议院共和党籍议长Paul Ryan到白宫告知总统特朗普:目前没有足够多的支持票来批准医保议案,令美股承压下挫,道指一度转跌。接近美股尾盘时,共和党反对派代表、美国国会众议院“自由党团”主席Mark Meadows离开会场并称“无话可说”。此前在会见了副总统Mike Pence之后,“自由党团”成员Mo Brooks表示,观点没有改变,仍然反对医保议案。这一消息令三大股指跌幅加深,继道指下跌100点之后,标普500指数也回吐了日内稍早的涨幅,转而下跌并刷新日低。纳指也回吐了稍早一度高达0.7%的涨幅,交投于平盘水平附近。临近收盘前15分钟,据NBC新闻和美联社报道,特朗普和众议院议长Ryan撤回了医保议案,取消原定于美东时间周五下午3点45左右进行的众议院投票,理由是没有取得足够多的支持票。三大指数将跌幅收窄,纳指完全收复早前跌势并最终收高。但本周道指累计下跌1.5%,标普500指数累跌1.2%,纳指累跌1.2%,均创2017年最大单周跌幅。出于对医保法案能否顺利通过的担忧,美股三大指数在周二经历了今年以来的最大单日跌幅,并在五个月以来首次下跌超过1%。罗素2000小额股指数也完全抹去了年内涨幅。其中银行类股受到的冲击最大,标普500指数中的金融板块本周跌超3%,为一年多来最大单周跌幅。市场担心一旦医改议案投票不利,将会拖延税改和扩大基建等政策的讨论与实施。美元指数和美国10年期基准国债收益率也均报下滑。股市标普500指数收跌1.98点,跌幅0.08%,报2343.98点。道琼斯工业平均指数收跌59.86点,跌幅0.29%,报20596.72点。纳斯达克综合指数收涨11.04点,涨幅0.19%,报5828.74点。恐慌指数VIX今日收跌1.22%,报12.96,盘中一度蹿升至13.82,刷新2016年12月30日以来的盘中新高。本周VIX冲高至去年中旬英国退欧公投以来最高。多数分析师认为,新版医保法案能否顺利通过,是检验特朗普谈判能力和推行竞选承诺的关键一步,也是对其未来新政实施的关键测试。但瑞银集团证券策略师Julian Emanue在接受美国主流财经媒体采访时持反对意见,认为医改法案能否通过都不会影响接下来的税改政策讨论,意味着大选后推动市场走扬的基调并没有变化,即减税、扩大基建和减少监管对宏观经济及企业盈利能力的提振作用。这一观点也得到特朗普政府的支持。周四晚间在与党内保守派“自由党团”会晤期间,白宫行政机构管理与预算局(OMB)局长Mick Mulvaney代表特朗普发出最后通牒:若新版医改法案(AHCA)没有获得投票通过,白宫的重心将转移到其他优先工作事项上,例如税改政策。特朗普也在周五取消医保议案投票后的记者会上表示,共和党人现在将致力于税改,从医改议案中学到的教训就是:要找民主党国会议员做同盟。经济数据方面,据美国商务部统计,美国2月份耐用品订单较前月增长1.7%,高于预期的增长1.2%。之前1月的增速2%也上修至增长2.3%。不含运输品的耐用品新订单连续六个月增长,显示需求上升,有助于促进经济增长。美联储“三号人物”、纽约联储主席杜德利表示,当前经济非常好,相当接近美联储的就业和通胀两大目标。货币政策的宽松程度应该降低,通过小幅加息让经济实现软着陆。富时泛欧绩优300指数收跌0.16%,报1484.54点。欧洲STOXX 600指数收跌0.18%,报376.51点。德国DAX 30指数收涨0.20%,报12064.27点。法国CAC 40指数收跌0.24%,报5020.90点。英国富时100指数收跌0.05%,报7336.82。外汇美元指数今日下跌0.05%至99.709,医保议案投票被取消前曾下探至99.545,为2月1日以来最低,本周累跌0.6%,三周累跌1.7%。欧元兑美元涨幅扩大24点或0.22%,至1.0804。欧元兑美元汇率曾在周三涨至1.0825的七周新高,随着欧元区的经济增长和通胀率不断高企,市场预期欧洲央行将倾向于收紧货币宽松政策。美元兑日元上涨0.28%,至111.24,医保议案投票被取消前曾下探至110.66,刷新四个月新低。避险情绪压低美元兑日元汇率本周累跌1.4%。英镑兑美元下跌0.38%,至1.2472,但周四盘中曾触及1.253的一个月新高。除英国外的欧盟国家元首将于周六集会庆祝欧盟成立60周年,据信将讨论英国退欧事项。英国首相May将于3月29日正式触发退欧谈判。投行Jefferies董事经理Brad Brechtel在接受CNBC采访时认为,不管新版医保议案通过与否,都不会影响美元指数近期看涨的走势。而美联储进入加息模式和缩表的势在必行,都是看涨美元的信号。商品WTI 5月原油期货收涨27美分或0.6%,报47.97美元/桶,结束了本周连跌4天的走势,但本周累计下跌1.7%。布伦特5月原油期货收涨32美分或0.6%,报50.88美元/桶,本周也累跌1.7%。WTI油价本周跌破了48美元/桶,是去年11月以来首次。市场担心美国页岩油产量复苏将持续抵消OPEC减产协议的努力。美国能源信息署EIA的官方数据显示,截止3月17日当周,美国油产连涨五周至913万桶/日,是自2016年1月以来的最长连涨周期。而EIA库存也在当周新增495万桶,至总量5.331亿桶,刷新历史记录新高。另据全球第三大油田服务商贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)公司统计,截至3月24日当周,美国的活跃石油钻井机数连涨10周,增加21个至总数652个,为2015年9月以来最高,也是去年同期数值的1.75倍。COMEX 4月黄金期货收涨1.30美元或0.1%,报1248.50美元/盎司。本周累计上涨1.4%,并已连涨两周。金价周四曾触及2月28日以来新高至1253美元/盎司,既得益于美元指数接近七周低位,也受到美联储3月FOMC会议释放加息鸽派信号的提振。同时,医保议案能否顺利投票通过的悬念,也在近期推升了投资者对黄金的避险需求。MKS PAMP大宗商品分析师Tim Brown在接受CNBC采访时认为,如果金价在未来几天能维稳1250美元/盎司,将有可能上冲至1259.50美元/盎司的200日均线处。COMEX 5月铜期货收跌0.5%,报2.631美元/磅,本周累跌约2.3%。债市受新版医保议案投票取消,以及特朗普暗示税改讨论马上启动的提振,美国两年期国债收益率在美股尾盘重新回涨1.02%至1.261%美国10年期基准国债收益率也从日低2.396%回涨至2.418%。但本周该收益率多次跌破2.4%的关口,连续三日夹在50日均线和100日均线之间。德国10年期国债收益率下跌9个基点或2.18%,至0.403%。
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