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Author Topic: How futures on bitcoin will work?  (Read 466 times)
zulunation
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November 30, 2017, 08:02:55 PM
 #1

HI ALL,

As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?

Investor buys 1 contract. It is 5 bitcoins. After a certain time if the price (calculated from several exchanges) goes up.
The buyer will receive profit. But who will pay?

As i understand the futures sellers will pay that profit. But they have to get this profit from selling bitcoins at a higher price.
So futures sellers will have to REALLY buy bitcoins. Not futures buyers.

Am i correct? This subject seems unclear to me.
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November 30, 2017, 08:21:34 PM
 #2

HI ALL,

As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?

Investor buys 1 contract. It is 5 bitcoins. After a certain time if the price (calculated from several exchanges) goes up.
The buyer will receive profit. But who will pay?

As i understand the futures sellers will pay that profit. But they have to get this profit from selling bitcoins at a higher price.
So futures sellers will have to REALLY buy bitcoins. Not futures buyers.

Am i correct? This subject seems unclear to me.
Not only CME group, even NASDAQ(competitor of CME group)  has decided to launch bitcoin futures before  the first half of next year. The markets have a buyer and seller almost all the time, if the price is almost the same that others are paying for, if the price is unreasonable no one will buy it. Buyers will buy and sellers will sell no matter what the price is because that's the basic functionality of markets.


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zulunation
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December 01, 2017, 10:17:43 PM
 #3

but who will buy bitcoins actually?
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December 01, 2017, 10:22:51 PM
 #4

HI ALL,

As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?

Investor buys 1 contract. It is 5 bitcoins. After a certain time if the price (calculated from several exchanges) goes up.
The buyer will receive profit. But who will pay?

As i understand the futures sellers will pay that profit. But they have to get this profit from selling bitcoins at a higher price.
So futures sellers will have to REALLY buy bitcoins. Not futures buyers.

Am i correct? This subject seems unclear to me.
The futures contract just like you are predicting the future price of the bitcoin let's say the A predicted about the bitcoin will reach $12k in the future. And another person like B predicted about the bitcoin will be around $13k and finally, the price of bitcoin stopped around $12,5k That means the predicted by A becomes the true value of bitcoin. So there is $500 gap with the bitcoin. And it can be considered as the profit for A.
And B is a looser caused by the price of bitcoin doesn't surpass its prediction.


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zulunation
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December 05, 2017, 08:44:47 PM
 #5

you all talking about the basic concept which i understand
but i would like to know how this will be implemented technically
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December 05, 2017, 09:07:56 PM
 #6

you all talking about the basic concept which i understand
but i would like to know how this will be implemented technically

These are being implemented as CFD (contract for difference) futures.  As far as I can understand, they do not represent any actual holding of Bitcoin, the exchanges do not possess any "reserve" of Bitcoin, and there is no option (at this time) to "take delivery" of a settled contract in Bitcoin.  So it's basically betting on the price of Bitcoin at each contract's strike date.

I am more interested in how people in the community feel that a futures contract that is wholly disconnected from the underlying asset (BTC) will impact the price of BTC.  I posted a similar thread about that particular aspect.

I guess we'll know starting next week, but it's looking more to me as a way that they can sell clients on "paper Bitcoin" than something that could actually manipulate the real BTC price.  At least for now while they're totally disconnected from actual BTC.

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December 05, 2017, 09:56:21 PM
 #7

but who will buy bitcoins actually?

No one has to buy the bitcoins.

Think about it like that, the CME group that enables bitcoin futures, actually brings you the option to bet whether bitcoin will go high or low from the current price.
As it enables high leverage, it helps you to trade at high volume even if you own a small collateral.

You bet against other peoples, you can choose to sell/buy the future contract, and in order to sell the contract you need to have another person to buy it from you, and also the opposite.


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zulunation
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December 06, 2017, 10:25:16 PM
 #8

>>I am more interested in how people in the community feel that a futures contract that is wholly disconnected from the underlying asset (BTC) will impact the price of BTC.

I am interested in exactly the same thing

>>it's looking more to me as a way that they can sell clients on "paper Bitcoin" than something that could actually manipulate the real BTC price.

agree

>>No one has to buy the bitcoins.

That's scares a bit Smiley
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December 06, 2017, 11:39:24 PM
 #9

you all talking about the basic concept which i understand
but i would like to know how this will be implemented technically

These are being implemented as CFD (contract for difference) futures.  As far as I can understand, they do not represent any actual holding of Bitcoin, the exchanges do not possess any "reserve" of Bitcoin, and there is no option (at this time) to "take delivery" of a settled contract in Bitcoin.  So it's basically betting on the price of Bitcoin at each contract's strike date.

I am more interested in how people in the community feel that a futures contract that is wholly disconnected from the underlying asset (BTC) will impact the price of BTC.  I posted a similar thread about that particular aspect.

I guess we'll know starting next week, but it's looking more to me as a way that they can sell clients on "paper Bitcoin" than something that could actually manipulate the real BTC price.  At least for now while they're totally disconnected from actual BTC.

Speculators would get a big place to play.So,bitcoin price would be manipulated a lot.That's why,a lo of analysts fear of a possible crash in future just like what happened in tulips during seventeenth century which were sold in contracts.

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December 07, 2017, 07:15:40 PM
 #10

>>That's why,a lo of analysts fear of a possible crash in future just like what happened in tulips during seventeenth century which were sold in contracts.

Well here IMHO the most important thing is technical side of bitcoin ecosystem. If it will became more and more attractive to the simple users then bitcoin price will grow and stabilize at a very high value.
Simple logic. The currency must be more or less stable, but it can be stable only at a very high price.
I guess it is possible to calculate that price.
So the key thing is will bitcoin be used more and more as a currency.
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December 07, 2017, 10:22:29 PM
 #11

you all talking about the basic concept which i understand
but i would like to know how this will be implemented technically

These are being implemented as CFD (contract for difference) futures.  As far as I can understand, they do not represent any actual holding of Bitcoin, the exchanges do not possess any "reserve" of Bitcoin, and there is no option (at this time) to "take delivery" of a settled contract in Bitcoin.  So it's basically betting on the price of Bitcoin at each contract's strike date.

I am more interested in how people in the community feel that a futures contract that is wholly disconnected from the underlying asset (BTC) will impact the price of BTC.  I posted a similar thread about that particular aspect.

I guess we'll know starting next week, but it's looking more to me as a way that they can sell clients on "paper Bitcoin" than something that could actually manipulate the real BTC price.  At least for now while they're totally disconnected from actual BTC.


This is the key bit of information, no BTC has to ever be used in the transaction whatsoever, it is basically just betting on the price of bitcoin. I also do not yet fully understand how it will influence the price, a lot of me thinks that it may temper it but I can't quite put my thoughts together enough to really understand myself why that's my opinion let alone express it. Maybe just one of those things my brain is telling me due to my economic background but can't figure out exactly why.

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March 09, 2018, 03:10:08 AM
 #12

HI ALL,

As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?

Investor buys 1 contract. It is 5 bitcoins. After a certain time if the price (calculated from several exchanges) goes up.
The buyer will receive profit. But who will pay?

As i understand the futures sellers will pay that profit. But they have to get this profit from selling bitcoins at a higher price.
So futures sellers will have to REALLY buy bitcoins. Not futures buyers.

Am i correct? This subject seems unclear to me.
The traders can speculate on the coin without actually having to touch it traders will have to put some money on the table for their bets Since btc is volatile .Its required to have at least 44%of the btc settlement price

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March 09, 2018, 06:54:14 AM
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HI ALL,

As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?

Investor buys 1 contract. It is 5 bitcoins. After a certain time if the price (calculated from several exchanges) goes up.
The buyer will receive profit. But who will pay?

As i understand the futures sellers will pay that profit. But they have to get this profit from selling bitcoins at a higher price.
So futures sellers will have to REALLY buy bitcoins. Not futures buyers.

Am i correct? This subject seems unclear to me.
The futures contract just like you are predicting the future price of the bitcoin let's say the A predicted about the bitcoin will reach $12k in the future. And another person like B predicted about the bitcoin will be around $13k and finally, the price of bitcoin stopped around $12,5k That means the predicted by A becomes the true value of bitcoin. So there is $500 gap with the bitcoin. And it can be considered as the profit for A.
And B is a looser caused by the price of bitcoin doesn't surpass its prediction.

For me who know the futures on bitcoin predicting the future price of the bitcoin. Imagine let's say the predicted about the bitcoin will reach $12k in the future.So that the predicted by becomes the true value of bitcoin.So there is $500 gap with bitcoin.And it can be considered as the profit for A. And B is a looser caused by the price of bitcoin  doesn't surpass its prediction.

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April 10, 2018, 01:52:14 PM
 #14

"As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?" One quoted this one, but for me what do we call ourselves? Maybe the start will be the bitcoins, but in the mere fyture it will all be converted to dollars.

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April 10, 2018, 01:58:18 PM
 #15

HI ALL,

As everyone knows the futures on bitcoin will be available soon. CME Group plans to launch them in 2017 Q4.
They state the settlement will be in dollars. So futures buyers does not have to deal with bitcoins. That's a bit strange to me. Who will deal with bitcoins than?

Investor buys 1 contract. It is 5 bitcoins. After a certain time if the price (calculated from several exchanges) goes up.
The buyer will receive profit. But who will pay?

As i understand the futures sellers will pay that profit. But they have to get this profit from selling bitcoins at a higher price.
So futures sellers will have to REALLY buy bitcoins. Not futures buyers.

Am i correct? This subject seems unclear to me.

Bitcoin will work in the coming future as a hope of all nations. Bitcoin will be the best tool to all the world success. Because bitcoin will positively grow this month.

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April 10, 2018, 02:11:09 PM
 #16

I think they will stand for a new innovation which will drag in more investors and will enhance their capability. Let's just be positive for btc growth.

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April 10, 2018, 02:57:12 PM
 #17

Bitcoin will work in the coming future as a hope of all nations. Bitcoin will be the best tool to all the world success. Because bitcoin will positively grow this month.

I'm not sure for 'future as a hope of all nations', as the majority of countries refuse and ban bitcoin outstanding in the country. They don't need bitcoin, although they need bitcoin they will make their own digital money. And strictly forbid people who use bitcoin, for move to national digital money. With the digital money they made, it's easy to manage all transactions and as a means of payment. There is no advantage for the government to accept bitcoin, because government can't regulate and control all transactions, with my conclusion they don't get a profit.

That's our hope for bitcoin grow up in this month, but in fact the bitcoin price is still under $ 10,000. And most likely will continue to decline to await google decision that will ban bitcoin in June. Anything will happen in crypocurrency, and sooner or later the price will go back up, we'll wait.

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peter0425
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April 10, 2018, 03:03:44 PM
 #18

Bitcoin will work in the coming future as a hope of all nations. Bitcoin will be the best tool to all the world success. Because bitcoin will positively grow this month.
I'm not sure for 'future as a hope of all nations', as the majority of countries refuse and ban bitcoin outstanding in the country. They don't need bitcoin, although they need bitcoin they will make their own digital money. And strictly forbid people who use bitcoin, for move to national digital money. With the digital money they made, it's easy to manage all transactions and as a means of payment. There is no advantage for the government to accept bitcoin, because government can't regulate and control all transactions, with my conclusion they don't get a profit.

They can get profit if they would have to put taxes. However, I agree with you that they are against it because government can't control crypto because its decentralize. And its really so disruptive that they are afraid that it can change the landscape of their economics.

That's our hope for bitcoin grow up in this month, but in fact the bitcoin price is still under $ 10,000. And most likely will continue to decline to await google decision that will ban bitcoin in June. Anything will happen in crypocurrency, and sooner or later the price will go back up, we'll wait.
Just really sad to see the price was not the same as December because we are really struggling and even have a hard time getting to $10K. And with all the regulations and anti-bitcoin sentiments going around we can only hope that it will get to 5 digits again. So we will have to wait and see how it goes in the next 6 months.
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April 10, 2018, 03:57:46 PM
 #19

I guess the payment of almost all people will be cashless and cardless only needed the internet to process the transactions of bitcoin payment. there will be no more hassle on paying such as debt and taxes and sending money abroad too.



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April 10, 2018, 04:02:41 PM
 #20

Since then, both have introduced futures on bitcoin, he does not cease to fall. Because now it is possible to short.
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