Why you should worry this is a bubble

[jaysabi]

Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin.

We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.)

However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash:  https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264.

Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now:



So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin:

"Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down."

This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen.

[Hydrogen]

I don't want to seem negative. I'm trying to avoid political discussion.    I would only like to say a case could be made for nobel prizes being a political tool for bankers.

Paul Krugman has supported many questionable and controversial economic policies over the years as a nobel prize winner in economics. There are some who question whether Al Gore should have won a nobel peace prize for a presentation on global warming. Barack Obama winning a nobel peace prize did raise a few eyebrows, years ago.

It is possible that nobel prizes are given out to those who push political agendas, rather than those who merit it. There used to be excellent scientists and economists like Milton Friedman who deserved a nobel prize. These days, it might be fair to say the quality of work awarded a nobel isn't what it used to be, unfortunately.

[Shutup]

Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin.

We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.)

However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash:  https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264.

Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now:



So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin:

"Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down."

This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen.

It's a good benefits to all bitcoiners of the bubles many are excited about this.Everybodys preparing for the coming up bubles for them to wait for the surprise of bitcoin to become $50000.Maybe when this time come many bitcoiners will become big timers. It's really exciting to have this opportunity even l don't know what's next in the future.

[Omega Weapon]

Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin.

We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.)

However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash:  https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264.

Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now:



So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin:

"Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down."

This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen.

So? He directly states he does not know when this is going to stop, so his prediction as always is as good as anyone else's prediction, we all know that once a bubble starts at some point it needs to burst, to have a Nobel prize his predictions are awfully vague, besides to stock market of 1929 eventually recovered, bitcoin is not going to disappear so for all of us that are holders we do not care if the bubble burst or not.

[jaysabi]

I don't want to seem negative. I'm trying to avoid political discussion.    I would only like to say a case could be made for nobel prizes being a political tool for bankers.

Paul Krugman has supported many questionable and controversial economic policies over the years as a nobel prize winner in economics. There are some who question whether Al Gore should have won a nobel peace prize for a presentation on global warming. Barack Obama winning a nobel peace prize did raise a few eyebrows, years ago.

It is possible that nobel prizes are given out to those who push political agendas, rather than those who merit it. There used to be excellent scientists and economists like Milton Friedman who deserved a nobel prize. These days, it might be fair to say the quality of work awarded a nobel isn't what it used to be, unfortunately.

Criticism of the Nobel process notwithstanding, I do think Shiller's pedigree speaks for itself. As fuzzy as economics is as a science, Shiller's work has been more concrete in the relationship between asset prices and the inefficiency of markets, correlating people's inability to predict reasonable asset prices to the cause of bubbles. As with the housing bubble, he identified that it was a bubble long before other folks (he was talking about it in 2005, two years before it became evident to others who "called" it before completely coming off the rails in 2008). What concerns me is how similar his descriptions are to Bitcoin to how he talked about the housing bubble.

[btc2mars]

Everything is a bubble. Fiat currency can also be classified as a bubble. Being a bubble doesn't mean you could not make money by participating in it. Just make sure you manage your risk well and don't over do it. Pick a strategy that fits your own risk appetite. Don't be overly greedy but also no need to be too risk adverse.

[Mometaskers]

I'm more concerned of a coming recession. There has been several talks about another one on the way and how the US gov't is trying to prevent it while at the same time not causing it.

[Hydrogen]

Criticism of the Nobel process notwithstanding, I do think Shiller's pedigree speaks for itself. As fuzzy as economics is as a science, Shiller's work has been more concrete in the relationship between asset prices and the inefficiency of markets, correlating people's inability to predict reasonable asset prices to the cause of bubbles. As with the housing bubble, he identified that it was a bubble long before other folks (he was talking about it in 2005, two years before it became evident to others who "called" it before completely coming off the rails in 2008). What concerns me is how similar his descriptions are to Bitcoin to how he talked about the housing bubble.

Many were calling a US housing bubble as early as 2005. There's a clip on youtube of it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

If what you're describing represents Shiller's work, it seems more like a deflection than legitimate science.

The best explanation for "bubbles" may be our slow growth of wages which lead to the value of real estate declining. Some of our recessions and poor economic growth may also be attributed to this.

The best explanation for inability to predict bubbles may be lack of employment opportunities or demand in the industry for objective and unbiased analysis in finance and economic sectors.

The best explanation for inabiity to predict asset prices (that I've heard) is brownian motion being utilized as a fundamental force upon which market projections are based on.

Shiller's work in these areas could represent moreso politics and deflection away from causality of true market mechanics.

[squatter]

So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin:

"Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down."

This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen.

I think that anyone who understands markets will agree with the bolded statement. I like to think of Bitcoin "bubbles" like Gartner hype cycles. Bubbles are expected to pop and never recover, whereas hype cycles recover in due course.

We are undoubtedly in a hype cycle that will come crashing down. But even Shiller -- hilarious name by the way -- seems to stray from the traditional definition of a "bubble" when he says "it won’t go to zero, it just will come down." As a bitcoiner since 2013, I don't think I'm alone when I say that I want the price to come down. I'd even welcome another 2-year bear market if it means I have more time to accumulate cheaper coins!

I've always been partial to the argument that Bitcoin is a Veblen good, and I think that relates well to Shiller's points about the housing market. What he's saying holds a lot of truth from a market psychology and economic cycle perspective. But what I'm really curious about is what his downside target for BTC is.

[aardvark15]

There probably will be a crash at some point. We saw it happen in 2013 I think when the price shot up to over $1100 and dropped back to around $400 in 2014 and eventually below $200. But we also know that gradually the price rose and after the halvening in 2016, the price started really climbing again and has kept increasing to $10,000+.

Crashes and consolidations will happen but I believe that if we are long term holders, we will still make big profits on Bitcoin and the major altcoins.

[usorin]

Considering that we are talking about a professor with high iq we should read between the lines: i did not express any assurance that i would make the bubble burst. It might have the opposite effect of strengthening it.

[Steven-o]

I don't think the bubble is going to pop for at least 2 years. If you look at it, we're barely out of recovery.

[gentlemand]

Did he account for housing bubbles outside the USA? Because there are plenty of them for which 2008 was a relatively minor hiccup before they carried on destroying the lives of normal people.

The UK faltered and then continued upwards without showing many signs of slowing down. Britain's about to fly down the toilet, they've taxed the shit out of the most destructive elements like private landlords, and even with all that it's still not officially popping.

The key factor is supply and demand.

[sindikat]

You can of course worry about what a bitcoin bubble, but name me a way to avoid this. A lot of people already earned good money with bitcoin. They had to abandon that because bitcoin could be a bubble? Lol. Now there is nothing more profitable than bitcoin. If you're not greedy then you should not be scared what will happen next. You have earned now.

[vibingpositively]

He may be correct but at the same time it does not even matter. As the last point states it will come crashing down but it won't go to zero it will go back after that. Bitcoin is here to stay people need to understand this. Also do take a look at the biggest bubble in the world which is real estate right now. 500 trillion is a lot for one market but you don't hear mainstream media talking about this bubble...I wonder why that is

[tunctioncloud]

I do not agree with this mister. He may have predicted bubbles, but what they had in common was that they were part of the old economy. Bitcoin is a new asset, from a new asset class, from a new ecnonomical world. It is way too new for him to have any clue about it. Passing too much time in its books made him being disconnected from the change and missing Bitcoin.

[bitcoinmaniac52]

Why should I worry?

Even if it is a bubble, I do not worry in life. Worrying causes stress and it is never a good thing. Worrying should be avoided at all costs. Even if your house burns down, you should never worry about anything for the reason above.

[bakunawaaa]

Well I do agree with him about the bitcoin going up in value way too fast and that it will stop at some point even go down. The going down part happened many times already. He also said something true which is it will not go down to zero. But the question is when will it stop growing in value? The estimate is it will go up to 100k usd before it will stop going up.

[eyesopen]

i think he is partly right.

if he is talking about housing bubbles, they have happened many times since the 1920's.

if bitcoin bubble bursts, it will just blow right back up again but like housing, if you own one it is still there after the bubble bursts. its just the "value" that bursts.

1 bitcoin now will still be 1 bitcoin if the bubble bursts

[Altas]

That's the true statement, as it is speculative in nature each and everything the people reveal about bitcoin has got its importance. Particularly bitcoin when discussed or getting more public awareness makes it more stronger and the same is driving the price forward reach bigger values.