Bitcoin Prices Crashing Now!

[Kazu]

Why because that was the "flash crash" level?

Yup, nobody's going to want to sell below that. Look at market depth, even without the inevitable wall that'll form right there, youd need almost 47000 BTC sold to go below that level. Thats practically half a winklevoss.

[mechs]

I do not think it will get down that low, though in the low 60s I would be a buyer assuming no new bad news

[DPoS]

FED is going to tighten, the institutional traders get less quota to operate on bitcoin trading, means USD outflow

And there are two facts:

1. The number of people who have accumulated enough coins are increasing
2. The bitcoin price now is at a level that it can support some serious spending, 10 bitcoin can buy you a travel package

After someone  have acquired hundreds and thousands of bitcoin, they might consider spend 5-10 coins to buy something, since this will not affect their total holding but still provide some usage

The problem is that currently there are still not a lot you can buy with bitcoin. In most of the cases you can only sell it and spend fiat, if there are lots of merchat accept bitcoin, for those people who want to spend the coins, they could just spend them, there will be no sell presure on the exchange

not completely...  that is only one step further.   The merchants will need to have a cycle for the btc or they will need to be converted anyway.

B2B btc transaction is a key component to stabalize the price.  But not sure how many are in the position to do that heavy lifting.  

-- If the Winkle Twins wanted to really be revolutionary, and not just dump their coins in a ETF, they would create a Commercial Paper system based on btc for small size businesses.  That would allow the coins to have a home that cycles.

[viboracecata]

FED is going to tighten, the institutional traders get less quota to operate on bitcoin trading, means USD outflow

And there are two facts:

1. The number of people who have accumulated enough coins are increasing
2. The bitcoin price now is at a level that it can support some serious spending, 10 bitcoin can buy you a travel package

After someone  have acquired hundreds and thousands of bitcoin, they might consider spend 5-10 coins to buy something, since this will not affect their total holding but still provide some usage

The problem is that currently there are still not a lot you can buy with bitcoin. In most of the cases you can only sell it and spend fiat, if there are lots of merchat accept bitcoin, for those people who want to spend the coins, they could just spend them, there will be no sell presure on the exchange

Agreed

[Tonko]

I'll repeat my response to the other thread:

Well, you bought DVD burner, maybe some Reddit crap with it and now what you gonna do with it?
So why buy it?
You may as well use fiat on Amazon.
The whole thing is bullshit for kids anyway. Not ideally or technically, just when it comes to the real life.

after which some moron started singing, so very predictable, phrase about how Henry Ford did ... blah, blah.

The overall idiocy and the lack of education (predominantly from Merkens) has reached such a stage that anything can be associated with anything, and can be held as a valid argument.

Margaritas ante porcos (guess no Merkentard can figure this one out)

[NeonRonin]

Interestingly, just in the last 24 hours the arbitage opportunities between the 4 major USD exchanges by volume (Mt. Gox, bitstamp, btc-e and CampBX) have all but vanished during this vicious sell-off.
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html
Looks like there is a bit of a bounce and plateau now - the question is will it hold the weekend - hell, will it hold the next couple hours?

I am speculating that a lot of people are cashing out for fiat right now for summer holidays. You can't spend btc at Disney or the beach yet. A lot of btc holders aren't big investors but early adopters that are now enjoying the summer. This will make for some good buying opportunities now. The news hit in April and a lot of people are figuring out what to do with bitcoin now. Love'em or hate'em the Winklevoss twins wouldn't be starting an ETF without careful analysis of the market, and trading like that has strict rules and regulations.

I believe we will see a jump in value in the coming weeks as people come back from holiday and as new tech materializes.

[favdesu]

BTC is literally like Gold. Falling...

[Asrael999]

margaritas ante porcos -> pearls before swine.  (Latin - not that tough)

Looks like the big sell on gox coincides with the Egyptian military staging their coup. Probably just coincidence but.....

[glendall]

GOX regox'ing it up , withdrawals resumed:  

https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

[donjonson]

I still think that the bottom will be at $57. So we still have like $25 more to fall before its finally over.

Why exactly $57?

Could be just some group with thousands of coins throwing them into the market to move the price to $50, just to buy them all back at lower prices?

[TheBanker]

I still think that the bottom will be at $57. So we still have like $25 more to fall before its finally over.

Why exactly $57?

Could be just some group with thousands of coins throwing them into the market to move the price to $50, just to buy them all back at lower prices?

I agree with 57. Highly likely due to it being a Fibonacci retracement level for support

[BitChick]

GOX regox'ing it up , withdrawals resumed:  

https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

That is good news.  Hopefully that props the price up a bit?  I suppose it can take a little while for things like this to recover.

Perhaps there are other factors beside Mt. Gox at play too, but this news should help a little.

[Loredo]

Seems like a lot of guys want to have it both ways.  They want BTC to be a genuine medium of exchange, and thus have its own exchange rate v. other currencies, but also, then, they want BTC to behave like a good bubble (or Central Bank manipulated) market, and always be in secular uptrend, so they can BTFD (Buy The Fecking Dips) mindlessly.

In USD terms, if its at all "real," BTC should represent "stuff."  And, in USD terms, a lot of "stuff" is falling right now.  Put your cursor over any of the commodities on this grid http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx and look at the charts.

There's also, of course, two immutable truths about thin markets (and BTC is a thin market):

o The market price is set by the most optimistic, not by a valuation conscensus;

o When there are, even if by pure Poisson arrival processes, more offered than bid, the price goes down.


So, I'd say, just relax, and if you're a speculator, just short it.  Oh, wait ....   

[Loredo]

Love'em or hate'em the Winklevoss twins wouldn't be starting an ETF without careful analysis of the market, and trading like that has strict rules and regulations.

It's not exactly an ETF, but anyway, remember that they found themselves holding around 1% of the outstanding BTC, and it was time to find a way to unload them. 

Can't do that in an absurdly high commission/low liquidity environment like the "exchanges."

[mechs]

True it is not really an ETF, more what they call an ETC - sort of like the GLD or SLV. Shares backed by basket of the commodity held in trust.  The trust charges a small fee for holding the bitcoins (basically security costs of the vault) and administration, then the market sets the price of the ETC.  Each shares will be equivalent to 1BTC (each share is 1/50,000th of a basket and each basket contains 50000BTC.  I am guessing each basked is a single paper wallet containing 50000BTC, kept in a vault with a high level of security. 
The problem is this is merely the filing of the paperwork for the ETC, it still needs to get approval from regulators.  They are being very optimistic (or reckless) trying to get this listed in the US, I think a european listing would be more likely to succeed, but I guess they want the liquidity of direct access to the US markets.  Anyway, I think politics will enter this and approval of the ETC is very unlikely.  If it were approved though, this would bring in a whole new class of speculators and hot money and add even more volatility. 

[mechs]

I think they should also make a rule that if any investor has 50,000 shares of the ETC (a basket), they can convert it to the actual Bitcoins for a small fee (0.25% or something).  In this way, it would make trading the ETC really more the equivalent of holding the underlying bitcoins - otherwise I think the ETC is likely to deviate significantly from the NAV in what will likely be a fairly thinly traded vehicle for bitcoin investment.

[jbutter]

Could be just some group with thousands of coins throwing them into the market to move the price to $50, just to buy them all back at lower prices?

Exactly, loaded traders milking the numbers, "sell high, buy low" winklevii?
What will happen to the market when ASIC's hit hard in September?

[mechs]

The concentration of mining power to fewer players will be a negative since all the gpu miners will stop mining bitcoin and either sell their gpus (will be great prices on ebay for 7950s!) or mine an alt coin

[Kazu]

Just wondering, on what ground could this possibly not be approved?

[Loredo]

Just wondering, on what ground could this possibly not be approved?

"Blue Sky," a traditional term meaning one cannot issue securities that are backed simply by the blue sky, and nothing concrete.

Traditional Blue Sky laws in effect put regulators in the business of deciding on the merits of investments, and are mostly gone at Fed. and State levels in the USA.

However, this could force the SEC to make a de facto determination as to the legal existence of bitcoins, which might not be something that it would want to do.  

I am fairly certain that if the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) were approached on futures contracts on bitcoins, it would be laughed out of Washington.  It's going to be interesting to see how the SEC handles this.