CME Now approved, bitcoin future markets will be available from 18 December

[BillCoin]

Now approved that the CME exchange received the approval from the USA regulators, and will start maintaining Bitcoin future market starting at 18 December this year.

How do you think that it is going to impact bitcoin price?

I think that it's going to be tough for bitcoin as it will make shorting it much more easily.

Source:
https://coinblip.com/blog/bitcoin-futures-gets-green-light-price-consolidates/

[aalfadhala]

Now approved that the CME exchange received the approval from the USA regulators, and will start maintaining Bitcoin future market starting at 18 December this year.

How do you think that it is going to impact bitcoin price?

I think that it's going to be tough for bitcoin as it will make shorting it much more easily.

Yes I was just ready an article about it - https://coinblip.com/blog/bitcoin-futures-gets-green-light-price-consolidates/

Bankers would love to short it.

[TheQuin]

Shorting it is easy enough already on the major crypto exchanges. Bitfinex, Poloniex and Bittrex to start with have a massive volume between them. I think the real impact will be much more money will come into the crypto space as it will be far easier for large investment funds to hedge their holding in Bitcoin. Hedging is after all the original purpose of futures markets and why the CME was founded.

Edit: it looks like I'm not alone in that analysis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/bitcoin-remains-higher-after-cme-cboe-to-start-listing-futures

“This is going to bring large sums of money in this area,” said Naeem Aslam, a chief market analyst at TF Global Markets in London. “It sends the message that the product does have some regulation around it and it is trading on the same exchange where other reputable derivatives are.”

[secondgarlic]

Shorting it is easy enough already on the major crypto exchanges. Bitfinex, Poloniex and Bittrex to start with have a massive volume between them. I think the real impact will be much more money will come into the crypto space as it will be far easier for large investment funds to hedge their holding in Bitcoin. Hedging is after all the original purpose of futures markets and why the CME was founded.

Edit: it looks like I'm not alone in that analysis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/bitcoin-remains-higher-after-cme-cboe-to-start-listing-futures

“This is going to bring large sums of money in this area,” said Naeem Aslam, a chief market analyst at TF Global Markets in London. “It sends the message that the product does have some regulation around it and it is trading on the same exchange where other reputable derivatives are.”

But doesn't this have the implication that "big money" will have a greater influence in the cryptocurrency market, making it easier to have pump and dump cycles? It's great that more money is coming in and the market cap increases, but I just don't know.

[TheQuin]

But doesn't this have the implication that "big money" will have a greater influence in the cryptocurrency market, making it easier to have pump and dump cycles? It's great that more money is coming in and the market cap increases, but I just don't know.

Big money will have a larger influence but that is inevitable anyway. It makes the pump and dump harder not easier. The larger the market cap the more capital you need to do it. That's why it mainly happens in tiny altcoins that hardly anyone trades.

[BillCoin]

Shorting it is easy enough already on the major crypto exchanges. Bitfinex, Poloniex and Bittrex to start with have a massive volume between them. I think the real impact will be much more money will come into the crypto space as it will be far easier for large investment funds to hedge their holding in Bitcoin. Hedging is after all the original purpose of futures markets and why the CME was founded.

Edit: it looks like I'm not alone in that analysis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/bitcoin-remains-higher-after-cme-cboe-to-start-listing-futures

“This is going to bring large sums of money in this area,” said Naeem Aslam, a chief market analyst at TF Global Markets in London. “It sends the message that the product does have some regulation around it and it is trading on the same exchange where other reputable derivatives are.”

You can't short BTC/USD from bittrex and Poloniex,also CME opens future markets, shorting at a future market won't require you to "lend" any bitcoins, which makes it totally different.

Until now the big whales has made their profits from eating small fishes on the uptrends( buying low and selling higher), but now they can earn massive from the opposite.

Also the futures market on CME is planned to have a massive liquidity, a lot of people who thinks that bitcoin is a bubble would be able to easily short it.

[alyssa85]

Now approved that the CME exchange received the approval from the USA regulators, and will start maintaining Bitcoin future market starting at 18 December this year.

How do you think that it is going to impact bitcoin price?

I think that it's going to be tough for bitcoin as it will make shorting it much more easily.

Yes I was just ready an article about it - https://coinblip.com/blog/bitcoin-futures-gets-green-light-price-consolidates/

Bankers would love to short it.

This. But the CME only allows them to short futures - if the underlying asset (bitcoin) performs well, all that will happen is that the shorters lose money. 

[Kprawn]

Now approved that the CME exchange received the approval from the USA regulators, and will start maintaining Bitcoin future market starting at 18 December this year.

How do you think that it is going to impact bitcoin price?

I think that it's going to be tough for bitcoin as it will make shorting it much more easily.

Yes I was just ready an article about it - https://coinblip.com/blog/bitcoin-futures-gets-green-light-price-consolidates/

Bankers would love to short it.

This. But the CME only allows them to short futures - if the underlying asset (bitcoin) performs well, all that will happen is that the shorters lose money. 

I hope the whales will counter this affect when this happens... but I seriously doubt it. The institutional money and the money

from the Banks will just be too much. We should be ready for much bigger spikes and dips in the future, when the Banks gets

into this game. I think many of them dipped some toes in Bitcoin already, to test the impact they might have. {This explains

the $11 000 for me}

[TheQuin]

You can't short BTC/USD from bittrex and Poloniex,

Thanks for the correction. My account application at Poloniex is permanently stuck in verification and I only have basic verification at Bittrex hence I use Bitfinex for 99% of my trading.

also CME opens future markets, shorting at a future market won't require you to "lend" any bitcoins, which makes it totally different.

I really don't see that this makes a difference. Mainly I say that as the introduction of futures didn't have a negative effect on any other assets when they were introduced. There are plenty of Bitcoins available to borrow on Bitfinex and I don't see that market leading the others when there is a fall in price.

Until now the big whales has made their profits from eating small fishes on the uptrends( buying low and selling higher), but now they can earn massive from the opposite.

Again experience from other markets suggests this doesn't impact prices. We have seen time and time again when markets have crashed and regulators have banned short selling as a kneejerk reaction that it has failed. After an initial pop when those already short were forced to cover the market then resumed going down at the same rate it was before.

Also the futures market on CME is planned to have a massive liquidity, a lot of people who thinks that bitcoin is a bubble would be able to easily short it.

The CME can't plan liquidity it just depends on how many traders turn up. I'll certainly be there as the advantages of trading futures with the extra leverage, reduced costs and a professional execution platform will make it the best place to trade.

This. But the CME only allows them to short futures - if the underlying asset (bitcoin) performs well, all that will happen is that the shorters lose money.  

Spot on. Futures contracts are deliverable so there will be plenty of people wanting to buy the futures if they were trading lower than the spot markets.


The whole thing is really a matter of opinion and I'm basing mine on my views on futures and the effects of shorting on other markets. You'll find plenty of people on both sides of the argument on the trading forums as well.

[BillCoin]

Quick update to this thread.

Seems like bitcoin future markets will be available on small exchanges starting TOMORROW.
CME will open their future markets as planned on 18/December.

Bitcoin price is 15K$, I think that we are going to see a small run to 18K-17K before the release date of CME.
I believe that bitcoin is going to suffer from high volatility once when markets are getting opened.