MtGox withdrawal is back, as they claim

[arbitrage001]

Probably the same group of people that buy gold and silver on margin. And people who are not lucky to hold either Euro, British pound or Aussy dollar.

USD went up by a lot in the last few weeks.

[dave111223]

Yesterday they cancelled my wires that were supposedly processed 6/14 (at my request).  I still see no evidence they aren't just jawboning to try to get people to deposit fiat so they can wire it right back out.  Probably insolvent fractional reserve.

Wasn't it just last month that you were accusing me of spreading FUD (when I said my transfers were delayed) and that everything at Mt.Gox was great and you were receiving transfers in less than 5 minutes?

Now Mt. Gox are jawboning and insolvent?

That's quite a U-Turn...lol

[zby]

So is there any evidence that they really do transfers now?  Has anyone received USD from MtGox this week?

[arbitrage001]

Wasn't it just last month that you were accusing me of spreading FUD (when I said my transfers were delayed) and that everything at Mt.Gox was great and you were receiving transfers in less than 5 minutes?

Now Mt. Gox are jawboning and insolvent?

That's quite a U-Turn...lol

No doubt they sux and hold customer money. But I do not think they are insolvent.

[Bugpowder]

Yesterday they cancelled my wires that were supposedly processed 6/14 (at my request).  I still see no evidence they aren't just jawboning to try to get people to deposit fiat so they can wire it right back out.  Probably insolvent fractional reserve.

Wasn't it just last month that you were accusing me of spreading FUD (when I said my transfers were delayed) and that everything at Mt.Gox was great and you were receiving transfers in less than 5 minutes?

Now Mt. Gox are jawboning and insolvent?

That's quite a U-Turn...lol

Admittedly a U-Turn. My comments were and are based on my experiences, which includes multiple frozen wire from 6/14 onwards.  Prior to that it was all roses with many transactions. 

I just try to construct the most plausible scenario based on the evidence I know to be true, your perspective will lead you to a different one.  Then we all get on this forum, post our thoughts and apply a Bayesian inference filter to extract the most probable one and act on it.  Personally, I will not hold any coin or cash on Mt. Gox till its clear the issues are resolved from multiple forum reports and my own 'canary' wire that is still frozen from 6/18.

[jl2012]

I would consider the following events as real indicators of "back to normal":

1. Bitpay uses MtGox to determine bitcoin value again: http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/06/important-update-on-bitpay-exchange.html?oid=1039_1

2. Bitinstant accepts MtGox as funding source again

I won't leave a satoshi on gox before at least one of these happens

[Nagle]

Unless and until a few weeks go by with zero complaints about delayed withdrawals from Mt. Gox, don't put any money in.

Many readers here don't realize how abnormal Mt. Gox's behavior is. With real-world brokerage accounts, when you order a withdrawal by wire transfer, it's in your bank account within two working days. Usually one. Often the same day.  A brokerage house that fails to deliver on a withdrawal is in trouble. Big trouble. If a firm has major problems servicing withdrawal orders, it's big news in the Wall Street Journal. Other firms refuse to deal with them. In the US, FINRA regulators ask hard questions. Lawyers and auditors descend on the firm. The firm may go under within days. That happened to Lehman Brothers, Drexel Burnham Lambert, MF Global... In each case, within days of default, the firm was out of business.

Mt. Gox is trying to play in the big leagues now. They don't get to act like they're dealing in trading cards.

[bitcoin44me]

mtgox is waiting people to cancel withdrawals, and buy btc. We need the price up

[Rampion]

For the record Gox worked consistently well for me, done 3 withdrawals of non-negligible amounts and I got the money in my bank in 2/3 days. SEPA transfers, Europe customer.

[dave111223]

For the record Gox worked consistently well for me, done 3 withdrawals of non-negligible amounts and I got the money in my bank in 2/3 days. SEPA transfers, Europe customer.

Dates on these withdrawals?

[Bugpowder]

For the record Gox worked consistently well for me, done 3 withdrawals of non-negligible amounts and I got the money in my bank in 2/3 days. SEPA transfers, Europe customer.

wrong verb tense to be relevant.

works?

[Bugpowder]

There is 1 implausible scenario (Mt. Gox official explanation) : Mt. Gox sends so many wires it overwhelmed the 2nd largest bank in Japan's ability to send wires.

There are 2 plausible scenarios, one bad, one worse.

Scenario 1) There is major regulatory pressure that has come down and we are only seeing a bit of it from our vantage point. Dwolla seizure is just the tip. Many banks are refusing to accept wires from Mt.Gox account.  I heard from OneFixit on IRC that his wire from Gox to Citibank never showed up, he called Citibank and they said they refused the wire and will refuse all future wires from Gox.

Gox is frantically trying to open accounts in other banks or in other names to disguise the origin of the transfers so it can resume sending wires out.  How long before they get caught?   This is the bad scenario.

Scenario 2) Gox does not properly segment customer funds, and without regulatory oversight the recent secular shift in market sentiment to more bearish tone has caused a major imbalance in wires in vs. wires out.  They don't send wires out because they don't have a segregated pile of customer money.  They spent all the money on hiring new people, or expanding, or speculating, who knows.  All that matters is they don't wire out till people wire in.  Gox is not a bank that has many loans out, where fractional reserve banking works, it is an exchange or brokerage where customer accounts should be segmented.  Gox has been in seg fault for weeks and would be instantly shut down if there was any sort of regulatory oversight on their operations.  This is the worse scenario.

Take your pick, they both suck.  Or take plausible scenario 3, which is 1 + 2 simultaneously.

[Rampion]

For the record Gox worked consistently well for me, done 3 withdrawals of non-negligible amounts and I got the money in my bank in 2/3 days. SEPA transfers, Europe customer.

Dates on these withdrawals?

The three of them were done in June, while there was no "USD hiatus", but it was still a moment where people wrote in this forum about withdrawals taking MONTHS to clear, especially SEPA ones. As I said, not my experience at all: 3 separate and significant withdrawals cleared in 2/3 days (SEPA) in June, just as fast (or even faster I'd say) that pre-bubble.

I need to say this because I've been reading so much FUD about Gox since April that I really don't know if I'm "the lucky one", or is just that there are thousands of customers of Gox (let do not forget they have tens of k's of customers ATM) that have no problems so they just stay quite, while the few that have delays obviously complain bitterly on this board.

Then I read about people saying that "as soon as a big customer ask for a withdrawal Gox will be crumble", and this doesn't seem the case at all. Since April millions of $ have flown out of Gox without any problems, in fact all the reports for "delayed withdrawals" I see in here are for smallish amounts.

BTW: I'm fully verified, including notarized docs.

[jl2012]

For the record Gox worked consistently well for me, done 3 withdrawals of non-negligible amounts and I got the money in my bank in 2/3 days. SEPA transfers, Europe customer.

Dates on these withdrawals?

The three of them were done in June, while there was no "USD hiatus", but it was still a moment where people wrote in this forum about withdrawals taking MONTHS to clear, especially SEPA ones. As I said, not my experience at all: 3 separate and significant withdrawals cleared in 2/3 days (SEPA) in June, just as fast (or even faster I'd say) that pre-bubble.

I need to say this because I've been reading so much FUD about Gox since April that I really don't know if I'm "the lucky one", or is just that there are thousands of customers of Gox (let do not forget they have tens of k's of customers ATM) that have no problems so they just stay quite, while the few that have delays obviously complain bitterly on this board.

Then I read about people saying that "as soon as a big customer ask for a withdrawal Gox will be crumble", and this doesn't seem the case at all. Since April millions of $ have flown out of Gox without any problems, in fact all the reports for "delayed withdrawals" I see in here are for smallish amounts.

BTW: I'm fully verified, including notarized docs.

Bitpay and Bitinstant stop accepting mtgox means these big players have difficulty in withdrawal

[dave111223]

The three of them were done in June, while there was no "USD hiatus", but it was still a moment where people wrote in this forum about withdrawals taking MONTHS to clear, especially SEPA ones. As I said, not my experience at all: 3 separate and significant withdrawals cleared in 2/3 days (SEPA) in June, just as fast (or even faster I'd say) that pre-bubble.

I need to say this because I've been reading so much FUD about Gox since April that I really don't know if I'm "the lucky one", or is just that there are thousands of customers of Gox (let do not forget they have tens of k's of customers ATM) that have no problems so they just stay quite, while the few that have delays obviously complain bitterly on this board.

Then I read about people saying that "as soon as a big customer ask for a withdrawal Gox will be crumble", and this doesn't seem the case at all. Since April millions of $ have flown out of Gox without any problems, in fact all the reports for "delayed withdrawals" I see in here are for smallish amounts.

BTW: I'm fully verified, including notarized docs.

Have you done any withdrawals since the USD block; or are you planning to?  This way we can follow their progress.

[Rampion]

The three of them were done in June, while there was no "USD hiatus", but it was still a moment where people wrote in this forum about withdrawals taking MONTHS to clear, especially SEPA ones. As I said, not my experience at all: 3 separate and significant withdrawals cleared in 2/3 days (SEPA) in June, just as fast (or even faster I'd say) that pre-bubble.

I need to say this because I've been reading so much FUD about Gox since April that I really don't know if I'm "the lucky one", or is just that there are thousands of customers of Gox (let do not forget they have tens of k's of customers ATM) that have no problems so they just stay quite, while the few that have delays obviously complain bitterly on this board.

Then I read about people saying that "as soon as a big customer ask for a withdrawal Gox will be crumble", and this doesn't seem the case at all. Since April millions of $ have flown out of Gox without any problems, in fact all the reports for "delayed withdrawals" I see in here are for smallish amounts.

BTW: I'm fully verified, including notarized docs.

Have you done any withdrawals since the USD block; or are you planning to?  This way we can follow their progress.

No, I didn't and I do not plan to do. Next thing coming out from Gox will be BTC

[pz8]

If you want to exchange EUR to BTC would recommend https://eur.bitcurex.com/

I checked it works and is very fast.
SEPA transfer took just one hour!

Very easy and simple system

[bitcoin44me]

If you want to exchange EUR to BTC would recommend https://eur.bitcurex.com/

I checked it works and is very fast.
SEPA transfer took just one hour!

Very easy and simple system

How is that even possible?
It takes 1-2 business days to process a SEPA transfer for a bank.

[flound1129]

There is 1 implausible scenario (Mt. Gox official explanation) : Mt. Gox sends so many wires it overwhelmed the 2nd largest bank in Japan's ability to send wires.

There are 2 plausible scenarios, one bad, one worse.

Scenario 1) There is major regulatory pressure that has come down and we are only seeing a bit of it from our vantage point. Dwolla seizure is just the tip. Many banks are refusing to accept wires from Mt.Gox account.  I heard from OneFixit on IRC that his wire from Gox to Citibank never showed up, he called Citibank and they said they refused the wire and will refuse all future wires from Gox.

Gox is frantically trying to open accounts in other banks or in other names to disguise the origin of the transfers so it can resume sending wires out.  How long before they get caught?   This is the bad scenario.

Scenario 2) Gox does not properly segment customer funds, and without regulatory oversight the recent secular shift in market sentiment to more bearish tone has caused a major imbalance in wires in vs. wires out.  They don't send wires out because they don't have a segregated pile of customer money.  They spent all the money on hiring new people, or expanding, or speculating, who knows.  All that matters is they don't wire out till people wire in.  Gox is not a bank that has many loans out, where fractional reserve banking works, it is an exchange or brokerage where customer accounts should be segmented.  Gox has been in seg fault for weeks and would be instantly shut down if there was any sort of regulatory oversight on their operations.  This is the worse scenario.

Take your pick, they both suck.  Or take plausible scenario 3, which is 1 + 2 simultaneously.

I suspected scenario 1 several weeks ago when the dwolla seizure happened.  The halting of US withdrawals fits well into that scenario.  It's possible they are scrambling to comply with KYC requirements, but this shouldn't be an issue for people who have already been validated.