Denial is fading, fear is approaching

[ex-trader]

The price is down because most of the money that came in to drive the prices up in the last 3 months was speculative and the investors/speculators have realised that the prices are not going up again soon and that Bitcoin is doing no more real business than it was 12 months ago and does not justify a $1bn valuation.

They are deciding to get out of Bitcoin and when they find they cannot with MTGOX, that's just making it worse.

[Severian]

Gox stopped transfers.

How is everyone missing this?

It's part of the denial.

[oxoa]

  Stop spreading sh*t people things should go better now:

https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

But it doesn't mean we should all depend on them... we should use more exchanges.
Also spooking everyone isn't helping either.

Instead of spreading sh*t we should spread the use of bitcoins for consuming.
Local shops, bars, asking your favorite internet shop if they gonna use it,
affirming that we are a strong community.  

[KnCMiningOp]

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

― Warren Buffett

[BitcoinAshley]

Yes, this thread is not FUD, it is reasonable non-emotional analysis of everyone else's unreasonable emotional response to market action. That's an important part of trading. Look at the chart, this is a long-term bubble deflation, and there are emotional stages for those who invest with emotions rather than reason and careful analysis.

Don't let emotions affect you too much. Obviously they play a small part, but letting them dictate your trading to the point where you deny obvious trends - that's dangerous.

I'm never all-in or all-out, (I love bitcoin/hate fiat too much to be all-out and am too cautious to be all-in.) But right now I am "more out" than usual. A lot more. Just yesterday I sold a chunk of my remaining coins at $79, and this morning my buy order at $68 was filled on CampBX. Now we're back up - but still in a long-term downtrend, so it's time to sell those again. Yay me. Anyone can do this, it's not hard. I don't know a darned thing about TA, I just know there's a downtrend and I can make money. Even if I end up mis-calling the bottom, I've still made mad BTC in a string of successful trades on the way down. I place buy and sell orders once a day. But if I deny the downtrend, I end up getting caught in a series of emotional bull-traps all the way down.

[niothor]

Yes, this thread is not FUD, it is reasonable non-emotional analysis of everyone else's unreasonable emotional response to market action. That's an important part of trading. Look at the chart, this is a long-term bubble deflation, and there are emotional stages for those who invest with emotions rather than reason and careful analysis.

Don't let emotions affect you too much. Obviously they play a small part, but letting them dictate your trading to the point where you deny obvious trends - that's dangerous.

I'm never all-in or all-out, (I love bitcoin/hate fiat too much to be all-out and am too cautious to be all-in.) But right now I am "more out" than usual. A lot more. Just yesterday I sold a chunk of my remaining coins at $79, and this morning my buy order at $68 was filled on CampBX. Now we're back up - but still in a long-term downtrend, so it's time to sell those again. Yay me. Anyone can do this, it's not hard. I don't know a darned thing about TA, I just know there's a downtrend and I can make money. Even if I end up mis-calling the bottom, I've still made mad BTC in a string of successful trades on the way down. I place buy and sell orders once a day. But if I deny the downtrend, I end up getting caught in a series of emotional bull-traps all the way down.

So , if the bubble deflation is normal , and you really believed in a price drop , why did you start these last week?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245285.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245297.0

[BitChick]

It was about time, but still way to go before despair and capitulation.

If we bounce back did we already hit despair/capitulation at some point?

I guess I am bullish and probably in denial, but I am not that worried really.

[CurbsideProphet]

Bitcoin prices took so many knockdowns these past few months but always came back up. What's worrying about this decline is that it is gradual unlike the sudden drop in prices when Gox or SR shutdown.

One thing is a trap (bull or bear), a different one is a trend. The current trend is down.

Are you short now?  I don't follow the wall tracker thread real closely but last I remember you were a buyer somewhere around $108ish?

[Its About Sharing]

What I get from observing this thread is that most of the people questioning or criticizing Rampion don't seem to understand (or at least bring up) Technical Analysis.
First, let me say I'm a long term BTC Bull (very very bullish). I'm a short to mid term bear.
Quick background - I was an active trader and did quite well at it years ago, but have been out of the market for 10 years or so. I just practice my old skills on BTC these days.
I know candlestick chart analysis pretty well and use a handful of indicators along with it. More recently I've been learning about market depth but my forte is chart analysis.

I believe deeply in BTC, but right now we don't have much in the way of fundamentals (if we were to compare ourselves to a stock). I know that will come though and things are really looking bright for the future. My argument here is mostly TA. If great news comes out (as with any stock) the TA can be thrown out the window (short term).

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

1. Have you been following the tape? I have watched it for weeks (on and off) now and something has stood out to me. The size of the sell orders are usually much much larger than the buy orders. This tells me common Joes (like me and probably you) are doing the buying, while large holders are doing the selling. Is this not INCREDIBLY alarming to you? Have you even checked this?

2. The Market depth on the buy side is evaporating and has been. The sell levels have been increasing. The number of sells at higher prices (in the books) has been decreasing. Now, a lot of the depth is clearly fake (e.g. walls get pulled and such) but we are still seeing a picture when we look. Is this not worrisome to you? Do you not notice that the sellers wait for the buy walls to build up and then dump?

3. The 10 day EMA just crossed under the 100 day EMA (around a week ago) and the 21 day EMA did 2 days ago. Do you understand this? It is not an end all, but considering it is the first time it's happened in a while, it should catch your attention.

4. Many experienced TA guys are bearish. Actually, I have not come across one that is bullish. (Say out of around 10 or so that seem to know their stuff, 2 or 3 which are paid services.)

5. We broke key support at 79/80 ish. We are on it right now but we broke through it cleanly and without much resistance. This should bother you DEEPLY if you understand TA.

6.  On the recent leg down, I called 2 or 3 negative divergences (up move in price with a down move in volume) which were followed by huge drops down. Check my posts with labelled pictures.  Considering the huge drops afterwards, have any of you looked into this? Noticed this? Or are you just thinking we bottomed because we have started going up?

7. Can any of you actually really read a candlestick chart? What does the chart tell you? (I can't find much in it that is positive - outside of being oversold).

8. Have any of you noticed how this "crash" can be almost laid out and over the 2011 crash? (Chart wise)   Is that not a warning? I mean just to be careful...

Now, I'm not saying I know what is going to happen. Any of us can be wrong, the point isn't in saying "I'm right", after all we are all BTC enthusiasts for the most part. I'm only sharing to share, not to taunt or the like. But the TA I use and those I follow are seeing pretty much the same thing (Using a variety of TA to boot). Yes, we can be wrong but I'd much sooner take an evidential approach rather than just an emotional one (and as the fundamentals appear they should and will be integrated). Something I heard once has really stuck with me: "Emotion is not concerned with truth. It is merely concerned with being correct." I have experience regarding emotional decisions, not that long ago actually (I was burned a bit) and I'm adapting. Is anyone doing the same, adapting?

Basically, I see emotional reactions here with no TA (or even fundamental basis) for the "attacks" on Rampion.
In a sense, you are proving his point. That should be worrisome...

IAS

[Dalib]

I just showed this in another thread of the year 2011

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2656796#msg2656796

At that time sold to a lot of people at the bottom of the lowest cost.

But we have a down trend and may take a long time.

[Nemesis]

Holy crap mama

For all you fcking pathetic trolls,

please dont talk like you give a shiet about someone's investment. Its fun to troll around but when you're fcking serious enough to make an essay to troll .... you failed miserably.

I guess you're working hard to spread FUD so you can buy low. How pathetic.

Now you should write a full page of txt asking me to explain why i give some homeless $20 today. Please entertain me dumbass.

[Jozzaboy]

Holy crap mama

For all you fcking pathetic trolls,

please dont talk like you give a shiet about someone's investment. Its fun to troll around but when you're fcking serious enough to make an essay to troll .... you failed miserably.

I guess you're working hard to spread FUD so you can buy low. How pathetic.

Now you should write a full page of txt asking me to explain why i give some homeless $20 today. Please entertain me dumbass.

Hmm, someone with logical, well laid out conclusions against a troll, orange ignore button and no productive or useful information whatsoever.

I can tell who is an asset to this forum, that is for sure.

[damiano]

I don't think the 60's will hold.

50,51 & 55 is where the real support is unless it gets pulled

[Crypt_Current]

I don't think the 60's will hold.

50,51 & 55 is where the real support is unless it gets pulled

Post me a chart with fancy lines drawn dude
I'm all about changing my bids lower at the drop of a hat 

[Wagner2014]

At $78 a coin the price still looks rather "frothy" if you ask me. You could have picked up 6 coins for that back in Jan 2013.

I don't sense we are near capitulation yet. That will come later, once we pass the 1/2 century mark.

[Its About Sharing]

Holy crap mama

For all you fcking pathetic trolls,

please dont talk like you give a shiet about someone's investment. Its fun to troll around but when you're fcking serious enough to make an essay to troll .... you failed miserably.

I guess you're working hard to spread FUD so you can buy low. How pathetic.

Now you should write a full page of txt asking me to explain why i give some homeless $20 today. Please entertain me dumbass.

Why "quote" someone (me) and insert things they never said? Mod, how about some action here? Isn't there something against board slander? 

My last prediction (yesterday) might be coming true as we speak (TA at work):

A move up to 86 or so and then a bit of selling to bring things back down is possible. That will then create a nice spinning top candle. Some indecision for a day or two and then continue with the down trend.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.21960

[Kiaya]

Up until the very back end of this month, I felt that there was still a way to look at the charts and feel short term bullish. But IMHO Rampion is right, the technical indicators are now looking distinctly bearish. Like many in this forum, I'm extremely long-term bullish on Bitcoin, and sometimes I find it hard to overrule my emotion and just trade the evidence. If I'd been better at this, I would have moved into cash earlier that I did. The major reason I read the speculation board at least once a day is to get confirmation of the things I'm seeing to help me trade the facts.

[ErisDiscordia]

good post Rampion.

The vitriolic reactions in this thread lead me to think that we are still mostly in "denial" territory, alas we've been there for a long time already and people are starting to get really jumpy. But the fear is certainly coming. I pretty much agree with your sentiment of "let's get this over with quickly". It's funny how you can't post bearish analysis without being accused of spreading FUD 

[Gabi]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

[Its About Sharing]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...