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The three candles in a row point is just 3 days though, doesn't mention volume or the like. I still am confused by your statement. Also, I listed a lot of points regarding what I look at with TA, the size of the shares being sold, to me, is still significant.
I mean what are the chances that the sell sizes would be consistently larger than the buy sizes? Why not just have more volume down than up? When you throw the larger sizes in there it adds an alarm to me as the moves down like that, can start an avalanche. Know what I mean?
So again, my argument, or rather just a part of the points I mentioned, is not volume based, it is "sell sized" (I said blocks) based.
I'm cutting down the quote size, hope you don't mind.
I'll try to make my points more clear...
(1) The "three green candles" comment was an analogy, and had nothing to do with volume. The idea was: imagine someone posts "I am experienced in candlestick chart analysis", and then would drop that line about 3 green candles. You would say that that's not how it works, right?
(2) Your "block" size argument rests on the fact that sell sizes are bigger than buy sizes. Since buy side and sell side of any executed trade are by definition equally large, what you mean is that sellers' positions on average are individually bigger than buyers' positions, right? (I'm honestly not trying to nitpick, just want to clearly understand your point.)
(3) If so, then my question is simply: what prevents a whale from splitting up his buy orders, but consolidating his sell orders, to create the impression you described?
(4) The order book is a prime tool for manipulation. So if (a) the order book tells you that the whales are selling while the small guys are buying, but (b) volume analysis would tell you that money flow is overwhelmingly positive (it is not, btw) then those two observations would conflict. And I would always trust (b) more than I would trust (a), because one is easy to manipulate, the other one less so.
I appreciate your "hounding". I find it is how I learn. I know candlesticks pretty well, but not a whole lot else. So, I am learning along with the rest of you.
1) Basically yes. In other words, we have to take context and all the conditions into play.
2) If I understand you correctly, then yes. So, the sellers are selling huge amounts at once. They may break it up, but what gets me is the 5 minutes of silence and then suddenly all these sells go through. Now, maybe they are triggered by the initial sell, but my feeling has been it is the same seller breaking his lot up. The time is exact. But, it can be limit orders being set off. Perhaps it doesn't matter as the picture still makes sense, know what I mean? (Even if I am interpreting things incorrectly, it is still assisting in analyzing this move.
)
3) They do split up their orders but I get the feeling as I said in 2 above. Again, if I am making a fool of myself here, it is worth saying, I don't know a lot about market depth and such. But sometimes ignorance is indeed bliss as a simplified approach (what I think I'm seeing) is correct (or at least suffices.)
4) I really only use the order book to watch the sells go through. I used to use it more to give me an idea of the market (and still do a bit, but more as a trend analyzer than a overall "now" picture).
I watch money flow, but that is particularly a dangerous indicator with BTC. I mean, think about it, the BTC's we see were all mined and not bought. (That happened later). So, unlike a stock, the money flow
can be completely off. I think my thinking here is correct, no?
I'm a candle guy (that sounds weird...) so correct me if I'm wrong...
IAS
ps - I don't really see lots of fear yet, hence as I said in the wall thread. I am thinking 50 is not a bottom, unless huge volume comes then.
