Bitcoin price: nothing to be worried about

[Fizpok]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was), it is not difficult to do predictions.
First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.
Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things. And at its peak it was overpriced.
Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?). So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes. So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.
Nothing to worry about. Imho.

[bit777]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was), it is not difficult to do predictions.
First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.
Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things. And at its peak it was overpriced.
Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?). So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes. So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.
Nothing to worry about. Imho.

I agree. There is huge promise and future in it. It will take it's time though.

[tokeweed]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was), it is not difficult to do predictions.
First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.
Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things. And at its peak it was overpriced.
Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?). So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes. So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.
Nothing to worry about. Imho.

+100

the thing is not to worry about what price it is going to end up in, but what to do whether btc is going up, going down or going sideways.

trend down = go short (or borrow some btc from a friend and sell it then buy back at a lower price)

trend up = go long

[Fizpok]

And don't forget about BetsOfBitco Forex is pretty much perfect market, but on a small sites like that people are willing to give you money. 90% of my bitcoin income is currently from there

[Comodore]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was), it is not difficult to do predictions.
First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.
Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things. And at its peak it was overpriced.
Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?). So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes. So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.
Nothing to worry about. Imho.

The most accurate and reasonable prediction I have seen for a long time.

[naphto]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was), it is not difficult to do predictions.
First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.
Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things. And at its peak it was overpriced.
Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?). So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes. So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.
Nothing to worry about. Imho.

You're missing the whole point.
1) You're right.
2) There is real demand for bitcoins. Just wannabe traders, some geeks that do not want to pay with USD, and money laundering . buying illegal stuff. If you want to buy anything on internet, the price will always be cheaper with your credit card, that buying bitcoins + fees for that + transaction fees...
3) Which stores really accepts bitcoin? I can't name one, and I am not even sure there is one. All stores I know accepting bitcoins, have prices in USD, and are instantly converting btc into USD. 

[Fizpok]

Err... Isn't it what I said?

[Fizpok]

To Naphto.
There is a difference between the demand and the potential. People are not, generally, aware of Bitcoins, even if they need it desperately. As they learn, they will use it, but not until.

[crumbs]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap

Relative to what?

and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was),

Again, not sure what you mean.  Bitcoin's initial worth was 0, any rise in value from 0 is ... well, undefined.  0x = 0.

it is not difficult to do predictions.

Great.  Tell me the bitcoin price on MtGox, in dollars, tomorrow, same time as this post.  You got the brains, i've got the looks -- let's make a whole lot of money!

First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.

Well, there go my plans  But i'm still interested.

Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things.

Knowing the supply means nothing if the demand is unpredictable, and demand here is simply a function of ... demand.  If no one wants it, i don't want it either, see how that works?  Keynesian Beauty Contest doesn't even begin to describe this

And at its peak it was overpriced.

So we're not going to break $260 or whatever the price was?  Evah?  Or does Bitcoin value change with time?

Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?).

I know you meant to be funny, but 3 out of 15 is a single ratio, not a trend -- you're being funny in ways you may not be aware of.

So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes.

I don't.  Who?

So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.

...or not.  And then go down again.  Or not. Meaningless prediction is meaningless.

Nothing to worry about. Imho.

Humility is our saving grace

[Fizpok]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap

Relative to what?

Relative cheap, probably, was poor choice of words. Bitcoin's CAPITALIZATION is not as huge as, say, dollar has, so to move the market, you only need - what? a million USD? Cheap.

and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was),

Again, not sure what you mean.  Bitcoin's initial worth was 0, any rise in value from 0 is ... well, undefined.  0x = 0.

Apple is a stock market's recent example of a skyrocketing. And, unlike Bitcoin, there was not a lot behind it. Think about it: people were not aware of Bitcoin, then they learned, and it went up. Then whoever was there by mistake, pulled out, and it is now going down. This is classics of Elliott waves, so to speak.

Apple, on the other hand, went up regardless the fact that its PE ratio was, well, let's just say, it was not a good buy according to PE ratio. That's what I was trying to say, thank you to point out that I have failed to make myself clear

it is not difficult to do predictions.

Great.  Tell me the bitcoin price on MtGox, in dollars, tomorrow, same time as this post.  You got the brains, i've got the looks -- let's make a whole lot of money!

I wouldn't. I don't believe in giving away what can be sold for Bitcoins.
But, as a bit of a proof (though you may say that I just printed out my fantasies), here is a fragment of one of many of my experiments. I take it you are familiar with MetaTrader, so the quote goes uncommented:

121382120 2013.04.15 09:30 balance Deposit WM RUR 5465779 95.57
121583091 2013.04.18 11:27 buy 0.01 xauusd 1385.75 0.00 0.00 2013.04.19 20:31 1397.17 0.00 0.00 -0.05 11.42
121583099 2013.04.18 11:27 buy 0.01 xagusd 23.37 0.00 0.00 2013.04.19 20:31 23.06 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -15.50
121664707 2013.04.19 20:32 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.30754 0.00000 0.00000 2013.04.22 13:31 1.30466 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.88
121401490 2013.04.15 15:04 sell 0.01 xagusd 23.82 0.00 0.00 2013.04.22 13:33 23.61 0.00 0.00 -0.07 10.50
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121695125 2013.04.22 13:33 buy 0.01 xagusd 23.61 0.00 0.00 2013.04.23 09:32 22.90 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -35.50
121464690 2013.04.16 13:25 sell 0.01 xauusd 1386.42 0.00 0.00 2013.04.24 07:49 1427.65 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -41.23
121731490 2013.04.23 09:32 sell 0.01 xagusd 22.90 0.00 0.00 2013.04.24 07:49 23.24 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -17.00
121706321 2013.04.22 17:19 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.52461 0.00000 0.00000 2013.04.24 08:03 1.52320 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.41
121731422 2013.04.23 09:30 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.30426 0.00000 0.00000 2013.04.24 08:35 1.30028 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.98
121967235 2013.04.29 10:21 balance Deposit WM RUR 5564839 94.67
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122456931 2013.05.13 06:53 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.53454 0.00000 0.00000 2013.05.14 17:18 1.52423 0.00 0.00 0.00 -10.31
122167698 2013.05.03 11:39 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.31186 0.00000 0.00000 2013.05.16 18:42 1.28935 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.51
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122996543 2013.05.23 20:06 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.29357 0.00000 0.00000 2013.05.23 20:07 1.29363 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06
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Two months, five times.

First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.

Well, there go my plans  But i'm still interested.

So am I

Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things.

Knowing the supply means nothing if the demand is unpredictable, and demand here is simply a function of ... demand.  If no one wants it, i don't want it either, see how that works?  Keynesian Beauty Contest doesn't even begin to describe this

I just hope someone with a lot of patience will collect and publish stats on number of companies using Bitcoin, the money flow, and so on, and I mean a historical data, a chart. Using it we will be able to figure out the demand, more or less, but a) it is a lot of work and b) it is just a "nice to know" thing, as it will not give us any benefits.

And at its peak it was overpriced.

So we're not going to break $260 or whatever the price was?  Evah?  Or does Bitcoin value change with time?

We will, imho. By overpriced, I mean the demand was not enough to support the price. As demand (meaning - number of people using Bitcoin) grows, price will grow.

Simple example: if now we have 1,000,000 people using bitcoin once a year, and the price is $100, and few years (decades?) from now we will have 1,000,000,000 people using it daily, will the price go up? Hell yes, as 11,000,000 Bitcoins will have to be fractured or else 1,000,000,000 people will not be able to have some of them, right?
So we wait, smiling...

Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?).

I know you meant to be funny, but 3 out of 15 is a single ratio, not a trend -- you're being funny in ways you may not be aware of.

3 of 15 is the only number I got, by asking people around me. I do not have resources to ask them all. If I had them (resources), I would invest at least part of them in Bitcoins...

So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes.

I don't.  Who?

Lord Volandemort.

So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.

...or not.  And then go down again.  Or not. Meaningless prediction is meaningless.

Anything we do is meaningless, on the long run. Take for example your last comment. Either you want me to totally change my mind - which I doubt, or you want to hurt me deep... but I believe that Bitcoin community is for nice and friendly people only. So I don't know what to think.

Nothing to worry about. Imho.

Humility is our saving grace
Humility is our saving grace

[crumbs]

As Bitcoin is (relatively) cheap

Relative to what?

Relative cheap, probably, was poor choice of words. Bitcoin's CAPITALIZATION is not as huge as, say, dollar has, so to move the market, you only need - what? a million USD? Cheap.

and as it is not (relatively) as fast growing as Apple (was),

Again, not sure what you mean.  Bitcoin's initial worth was 0, any rise in value from 0 is ... well, undefined.  0x = 0.

Apple is a stock market's recent example of a skyrocketing. And, unlike Bitcoin, there was not a lot behind it. Think about it: people were not aware of Bitcoin, then they learned, and it went up. Then whoever was there by mistake, pulled out, and it is now going down. This is classics of Elliott waves, so to speak.

You're choosing to look at this from an odd perspective.  Apple stock is backed by Apple's place in the market (brand recognition / secured customer base), long, verifiable track record, tangible assets, extensive IPs & the wishful thinking of the investors.
Bitcoin, seen from the same perspective, has only one of the above that's worth mentioning: the wishful thinking of the investors.
 

Apple, on the other hand, went up regardless the fact that its PE ratio was, well, let's just say, it was not a good buy according to PE ratio. That's what I was trying to say, thank you to point out that I have failed to make myself clear

How does the PE ratio factor in here?  What would have been a good PE for AAPL?  And Bitcoin?  And how are you calculating risks???

it is not difficult to do predictions.

Great.  Tell me the bitcoin price on MtGox, in dollars, tomorrow, same time as this post.  You got the brains, i've got the looks -- let's make a whole lot of money!

I wouldn't. I don't believe in giving away what can be sold for Bitcoins.
But, as a bit of a proof (though you may say that I just printed out my fantasies), here is a fragment of one of many of my experiments. I take it you are familiar with MetaTrader, so the quote goes uncommented:

 I'm sorry, it looks as meaningful as a random hex dump to me.  Could you give me a TL;DR?

121382120 2013.04.15 09:30 balance Deposit WM RUR 5465779 95.57
121583091 2013.04.18 11:27 buy 0.01 xauusd 1385.75 0.00 0.00 2013.04.19 20:31 1397.17 0.00 0.00 -0.05 11.42
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121967235 2013.04.29 10:21 balance Deposit WM RUR 5564839 94.67
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122513436 2013.05.14 15:41 sell 0.01 gbpusd 1.52618 0.00000 0.00000 2013.05.24 16:15 1.50919 0.00 0.00 -0.29 16.99
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122540974 2013.05.14 17:18 sell 0.01 gbpusd 1.52421 0.00000 0.00000 2013.05.24 23:23 1.51225 0.00 0.00 -0.29 11.96
123038683 2013.05.24 16:19 buy 0.01 xagusd 22.50 20.25 25.72 2013.05.29 08:19 22.35 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -7.50
123067510 2013.05.27 12:31 buy 0.01 xauusd 1394.63 1299.67 1534.61 2013.05.29 08:19 1384.90 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -9.73
122572221 2013.05.15 10:11 sell 0.01 xagusd 23.05 0.00 0.00 2013.05.30 10:17 22.68 0.00 0.00 -0.17 18.50
122074335 2013.05.01 14:47 sell 0.01 xauusd 1465.34 0.00 0.00 2013.05.30 10:17 1407.47 0.00 0.00 -0.31 57.87
123211480 2013.05.30 10:42 buy 0.01 usdjpy 100.699 0.000 0.000 2013.06.06 10:35 99.274 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -14.35
123038609 2013.05.24 16:17 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.50948 1.49872 1.57730 2013.06.06 19:13 1.55940 0.00 0.00 -0.02 49.92
122996611 2013.05.23 20:08 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.29372 1.27041 1.39078 2013.06.06 19:13 1.32530 0.00 0.00 -0.55 31.58
123487240 2013.06.06 10:35 sell 0.01 usdjpy 99.274 0.000 0.000 2013.06.06 19:13 97.457 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.64
123546249 2013.06.07 09:51 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.55886 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.14 07:15 1.56977 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.91
123622035 2013.06.10 18:06 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.31996 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.14 07:15 1.33476 0.00 0.00 -0.19 14.80
123546284 2013.06.07 09:52 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.32522 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.14 07:16 1.33481 0.00 0.00 -0.22 9.59
123838228 2013.06.17 08:09 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.33189 1.33940 0.00000 2013.06.18 11:33 1.33940 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.51
123848790 2013.06.17 13:08 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.57204 1.56050 1.58355 2013.06.18 14:12 1.56050 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -11.54
123980226 2013.06.20 07:09 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.32560 0.00000 1.31978 2013.06.20 11:40 1.31978 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.82
122996635 2013.05.23 20:09 sell stop 0.01 eurusd 1.26945 1.32869 1.21977 2013.06.20 15:24 1.32053 cancelled
123997796 2013.06.20 12:27 sell stop 0.01 eurusd 1.31619 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.20 15:24 1.32001 cancelled
124099434 2013.06.24 15:26 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.53717 0.00000 1.54112 2013.06.24 15:51 1.54112 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.95
124044195 2013.06.21 12:01 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.32164 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.26 08:51 1.30732 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.32
124139765 2013.06.25 11:28 buy 0.01 eurusd 1.31245 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.26 08:51 1.30724 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -5.21
123804989 2013.06.14 11:19 sell 0.01 gbpusd 1.56550 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.26 08:52 1.54306 0.00 0.00 -0.21 22.44
124139799 2013.06.25 11:28 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.54470 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.26 08:52 1.54294 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.76
123933960 2013.06.19 10:59 buy 0.01 gbpusd 1.56571 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.26 10:55 1.54121 0.00 0.00 0.00 -24.50
124063093 2013.06.21 18:23 sell 0.01 eurusd 1.31260 0.00000 0.00000 2013.06.26 11:49 1.30585 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.75
123311454 2013.06.03 08:07 sell 0.01 xagusd 22.39 0.00 0.00 2013.06.26 11:50 18.70 0.00 0.00 -0.23 184.50
123487262 2013.06.06 10:35 sell 0.01 xauusd 1393.95 0.00 0.00 2013.06.26 11:50 1234.89 0.00 0.00 -0.18 159.06
123134834 2013.06.20 11:03 sell 0.01 xagusd 20.12 0.00 0.00 2013.06.26 11:51 18.72 0.00 0.00 -0.04 70.00
124063059 2013.06.21 18:22 sell 0.01 xauusd 1289.28 0.00 0.00 2013.06.26 11:52 1235.30 0.00 0.00 -0.03 53.98

Two months, five times.


First, it is down, and it will for some time. If you have experience at FOREX or stock market, you should know that summer is generally slow. Accept it, there will be no "Bitcoin hits 10,000" till at least September.

Well, there go my plans  But i'm still interested.

So am I

Second, Bitcoin does have fundamentals, you know, all those supply-demand balance things.

Knowing the supply means nothing if the demand is unpredictable, and demand here is simply a function of ... demand.  If no one wants it, i don't want it either, see how that works?  Keynesian Beauty Contest doesn't even begin to describe this

I just hope someone with a lot of patience will collect and publish stats on number of companies using Bitcoin, the money flow, and so on, and I mean a historical data, a chart. Using it we will be able to figure out the demand, more or less, but a) it is a lot of work and b) it is just a "nice to know" thing, as it will not give us any benefits.

It will give our predictions a veneer of credibility, the benefits of not being caught with our pants down when asked "what'cha base ya predictions on, hot air?"  

And at its peak it was overpriced.

So we're not going to break $260 or whatever the price was?  Evah?  Or does Bitcoin value change with time?

We will, imho. By overpriced, I mean the demand was not enough to support the price. As demand (meaning - number of people using Bitcoin) grows, price will grow.

Simple example: if now we have 1,000,000 people using bitcoin once a year, and the price is $100, and few years (decades?) from now we will have 1,000,000,000 people using it daily, will the price go up? Hell yes, as 11,000,000 Bitcoins will have to be fractured or else 1,000,000,000 people will not be able to have some of them, right?
So we wait, smiling...

You've made a generous assumption:  the number of people using bitcoin goes up.  If i was sure of that, i wouldn't have to worry about Bitcoin failing , yet i do.  If using bitcoin is made illegal by US Government, i can (as a minimum) hypothesize that the number of users will decrease.  Plenty of law-abiding folks out there  
The growing number of users does not automatically increase the value of a limited resource like Bitcoins.  Otherwise, why not gift every living being with some fraction of Satoshi?  The price for the exponential increase of Bitcoin value would be nominal.  
The problem is there has to be a demand -- people need to need it.  They don't.  There are other currencies, and even if by some miracle those too vanish, there's always barter.  Or ...   LITECOIN  Problem.

Third, number of Bitcoin awared people is going up (3 out of 15 according to my personal surwey among people with University diploma), and either is the number of stores that accept Bitcoin (1 of what? a million?).

I know you meant to be funny, but 3 out of 15 is a single ratio, not a trend -- you're being funny in ways you may not be aware of.

3 of 15 is the only number I got, by asking people around me. I do not have resources to ask them all. If I had them (resources), I would invest at least part of them in Bitcoins...

3 out of 15 is a single ratio.  you need at least two(2) ratios to define a trend, as in "Yesterday only 1 out of 15 people knew about Bitcoin, today it is 3 out of 15.  As you can see, the number is growing."  Like that.

So there is a huge promice for it going up, unless you-know-who interferes.

I don't.  Who?

Lord Volandemort.

So it will fall to either 60 (50% drop) or 30+ (62% drop) and go up, either slow, or - if something happens that makes people feel uncomfortable holding "real" money (Cyprus ver. 2.0) - fast.

...or not.  And then go down again.  Or not. Meaningless prediction is meaningless.

Anything we do is meaningless, on the long run. Take for example your last comment. Either you want me to totally change my mind - which I doubt, or you want to hurt me deep... but I believe that Bitcoin community is for nice and friendly people only. So I don't know what to think.

It depends.  If your mistakes were just that: mistakes -- i wish to correct them for you, so you wouldn't lose your shirt due to ignorance or failing mental gymnastics.  If, OTOH, you are intentionally spreading misinformation, i would like to illuminate those failings to others, so that they would not lose their shirts.  Something along those lines.
 

[Fizpok]

Again, not sure what you mean.  Bitcoin's initial worth was 0, any rise in value from 0 is ... well, undefined.  0x = 0.
Agree. Bitcoin is a wild card. We can only imagine its future, as there is no established methods of prediction.

You're choosing to look at this from an odd perspective.  Apple stock is backed by Apple's place in the market (brand recognition / secured customer base), long, verifiable track
record, tangible assets, extensive IPs & the wishful thinking of the investors.
Bitcoin, seen from the same perspective, has only one of the above that's worth mentioning: the wishful thinking of the investors.


Ever heard about "perfection is achieved right before a disaster"? Apple went up JUST before Samsung and others joined the game...

How does the PE ratio factor in here?  What would have been a good PE for AAPL?  And Bitcoin?  And how are you calculating risks???

There is a tradition on the stock market, to consider Price to Earnings one of important indicators. As for Bitcoin... you are correct, no such thing

It will give our predictions a veneer of credibility, the benefits of not being caught with our pants down when asked "what'cha base ya predictions on, hot air?"  

True. But there is no other way to deal with a completely new thing, like Bitcoin. But, absolutely, the "don't invest your last money" advice stays.

You've made a generous assumption:  the number of people using bitcoin goes up.  If i was sure of that, i wouldn't have to worry about Bitcoin failing , yet i do.  If using bitcoin is made illegal by US Government, i can (as a minimum) hypothesize that the number of users will decrease.  Plenty of law-abiding folks out there  
The growing number of users does not automatically increase the value of a limited resource like Bitcoins.  Otherwise, why not gift every living being with some fraction of Satoshi?  The price for the exponential increase of Bitcoin value would be nominal.  
The problem is there has to be a demand -- people need to need it.  They don't.  There are other currencies, and even if by some miracle those too vanish, there's always barter.  Or ...   LITECOIN  Problem.


True. So we need to consider two scenarios. a) I invest $X and get $0, or I invest $X and get $XXX. Then we estimate risks (and we can not, so it is all fuzzy), and make a choice. But you are correct, there is a chance that something goes wrong... and your actions should depend on your risk tolerance. I created a store engine, I bet (and win 4 times out of 5) on betsofbitco.in, but I personally wouldn't sell my house... Which, by the way, limits my (possible) reward. When you play with market, it is just it - a game.

Then again, a lot of people use Bitcoin as intended, as a currency.

3 out of 15 is a single ratio.  you need at least two(2) ratios to define a trend, as in "Yesterday only 1 out of 15 people knew about Bitcoin, today it is 3 out of 15.  As you can see, the number is growing."  Like that.


The number can not go down in a short (few years) time frame. See, people do live long So if today 10 people know about Bitcoin, and tomorrow one more, then to make the number go down, TWO people need to die. In other words, learning rate should be lower than a death rate. Currently, it is not so, but who knows: it is crisis our there...

It depends.  If your mistakes were just that: mistakes -- i wish to correct them for you, so you wouldn't lose your shirt due to ignorance or failing mental gymnastics.  If, OTOH, you are intentionally spreading misinformation, i would like to illuminate those failings to others, so that they would not lose their shirts.  Something along those lines.


Hm... Agree again. Thank you.

[tokeweed]

talking heads are talking.

[johnyj]

Exactly, actually the people who want to get coins are increasing, current buying power vacuum is temporary, caused by lots of investment money went into ASIC device pre-orders, those investors believe that investing in ASIC will bring them better return than directly buy coins

After mass delivery from many ASIC vendors, they will discover that the return for ASIC devices are much worse than buying coins directly and many of them will buy coins instead

Take BFL for example, at price of $5 last year, you could buy 260 coins with the pre-order money for a single, but even if you received the single now, you might never mine 260 coins out of it, due to fast rising difficulty

[BitChick]

Exactly, actually the people who want to get coins are increasing, current buying power vacuum is temporary, caused by lots of investment money went into ASIC device pre-orders, those investors believe that investing in ASIC will bring them better return than directly buy coins

After mass delivery from many ASIC vendors, they will discover that the return for ASIC devices are much worse than buying coins directly and many of them will buy coins instead

Take BFL for example, at price of $5 last year, you could buy 260 coins with the pre-order money for a single, but even if you received the single now, you might never mine 260 coins out of it, due to fast rising difficulty

That is interesting to think about.  Of course, some people might then just give up and still not buy any coin even if the return for their ASIC devices is not as great as they expected.  But I do imagine that there will be some that just opt to buy in for sure if it does not work out.

[Fizpok]

Exactly, actually the people who want to get coins are increasing, current buying power vacuum is temporary, caused by lots of investment money went into ASIC device pre-orders, those investors believe that investing in ASIC will bring them better return than directly buy coins

After mass delivery from many ASIC vendors, they will discover that the return for ASIC devices are much worse than buying coins directly and many of them will buy coins instead

Take BFL for example, at price of $5 last year, you could buy 260 coins with the pre-order money for a single, but even if you received the single now, you might never mine 260 coins out of it, due to fast rising difficulty

I'd say, ASIC vendors should include punishment clause, like "delivery date XXX, each month of delay - 20% back, up to 120% (money back plus penalty)"

But unfortunately, it will not work, as to produce ASIC, they have to spend our money first.

However, it CAN be done, if they use insurance company as an intermediary...