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Author Topic: Why does it keep falling ?  (Read 8665 times)
Houdini
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July 01, 2011, 09:19:12 AM
 #1

For the last two weeks every larger fall in value has been followed by an equivalent rise in value after it, only a bit slower (taking hours instead of minutes). I figured it was boomerang-like with a reasonable chance, and therefore safe to invest in.
Now the bitcoin has fallen from ~17 to about ~16.5 and it looks like it's slowly falling further instead of rising ? What do you figure is going on and why, and when will it be back to 17+ ? And should those who have BTC sell out in expectance of an even greater fall or wait for it to rise ?
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sharky112065
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July 01, 2011, 09:23:17 AM
 #2

Weekend?

Donations welcome: 12KaKtrK52iQjPdtsJq7fJ7smC32tXWbWr
Oldminer
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July 01, 2011, 09:25:25 AM
 #3

SELL SELL SELL

If you like my post please feel free to give me some positive rep https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=18639
Tip me BTC: 1FBmoYijXVizfYk25CpiN8Eds9J6YiRDaX
Alex Beckenham
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July 01, 2011, 09:28:10 AM
 #4

SELL SELL SELL

TO ME TO ME TO ME

Houdini
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July 01, 2011, 09:55:07 AM
 #5

Sure if you'll give me 17.5$ ! Smiley
Alex Beckenham
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July 01, 2011, 10:01:09 AM
 #6

Sure if you'll give me 17.5$ ! Smiley

No problem, will you take Paypal or AlertPay?

If AlertPay, I could buy as many as 40 btc right now... unless you weren't serious.


Houdini
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July 01, 2011, 10:03:54 AM
 #7

Well I am selling 55 BTC, but pray tell enlighten me, why would you pay that much when you buy cheaper on TH or MTG ?
Alex Beckenham
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July 01, 2011, 10:07:24 AM
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Well I am selling 55 BTC, but pray tell enlighten me, why would you pay that much when you buy cheaper on TH or MTG ?

Because my funds are already in AlertPay... not coming from a credit card.

It would be a very quick and simple 'send' if someone wanted to trade me for AP funds... about 900 USD available.

BitcoinPorn
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July 01, 2011, 10:21:54 AM
 #9

Now the bitcoin has fallen from ~17 to about ~16.5 and it looks like it's slowly falling further instead of rising ? What do you figure is going on and why, and when will it be back to 17+ ? And should those who have BTC sell out in expectance of an even greater fall or wait for it to rise ?
My quick guess, people have seen BTC in the news.  Think they are cashing in.  Short term people are slowly and slowly exiting, bad Bitcoin news stories all the time coupled with the fact that there simply does seem to be too many people mining.  Long term people who are actually invested in stuff will stay, maybe even cashed out a little bit knowing they are going to buy back cheaper because of how the people are exiting.

Also more people using more markets, those trading fees add up!  It has actually fucked the market up lol

zby
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July 01, 2011, 11:13:32 AM
 #10

One hypothesis - all the buy orders since Monday (on MtGox - after all it is still setting the price) were mostly from guys that had the money there from previous sells, they wanted to buy cheaply after the crush, but there were so many of them that the price quickly got back to basically the same level as it was before the crash, and so they did not want to buy any more.  There were in particular a few very big buy orders that disappeared quickly when the price dropped in any vicinity of them - showing that they were just a bluff and most probably the buyers were at the same time selling at a higher price.  Currently it is clear that no many more bank transfers arrived this week to MtGox and as always on weekend there will not be any of them so the price most probably will be falling on the weekend, so it's better to sell today then tomorrow.  Then the question is if on Monday it will be any better - but the articles you can find on the Internet lately are not too positive towards bitcoin so the situation looks pretty gloom this weekend.
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July 01, 2011, 11:33:38 AM
 #11

coupled with the fact that there simply does seem to be too many people mining.  

Why should that matter? Rate of new coins is constant whether 1 miner or 1 million.
dikidera
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July 01, 2011, 11:38:17 AM
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SELL SELL SELL
If you don't stop with that shit, the only thing you will BUY is new teeth!
BitcoinPorn
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July 01, 2011, 11:44:41 AM
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Why should that matter? Rate of new coins is constant whether 1 miner or 1 million.
The value of them is not constant when created and used in uneven ways.   So I guess then, same amount of miners, but 'slow down' ?

billyjoeallen
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July 01, 2011, 11:54:56 AM
 #14

I don't know why it's falling, but I'm glad it's falling. Bitcoin needs to be in the hands of people who think long term. The get rich quick crowd will not be missed.

insert coin here:
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Open an exchange account at CampBX: options, lowest commissions, and best security
https://campbx.com/register.php?r=0Y7YxohTV0B
Jan
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July 01, 2011, 11:59:18 AM
 #15

For the last two weeks every larger fall in value has been followed by an equivalent rise in value after it, only a bit slower (taking hours instead of minutes). I figured it was boomerang-like with a reasonable chance, and therefore safe to invest in.
Now the bitcoin has fallen from ~17 to about ~16.5 and it looks like it's slowly falling further instead of rising ? What do you figure is going on and why, and when will it be back to 17+ ? And should those who have BTC sell out in expectance of an even greater fall or wait for it to rise ?

If I were the holder of many a bitcoin and I wanted to turn a significant portion into USD, I would not sell everything in one big splash, as this would significantly lower the prices. Instead I would use Dark Pools, where my order doesn't show up, and I would only sell a little at a time. This makes room for other ppl to buy while I am selling, leaving the price at status quo. If several entities are doing this move at the same time we see a slow decline in value.

I could imagine that this is what is happening right now. This is a fair thing and a natural phenomenon in an open market, especially after what we have experienced over the last few weeks. Over time this will evaporate, and we can continue 'normal' business.

My personal hope is that BTC stabilizes at some level and has a slow growth over time. Be it 5$, 10$ or 20$ a coin, I don't care. What is important is stability so we can get merchants and 'normal' people into bitcoin.

My own investment in BTC is about 200$ at 20$ a coin, and some mining. I am here in the hope of being part of the revolution of online payment.


Mycelium let's you hold your private keys private.
carbonc
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July 01, 2011, 12:14:18 PM
 #16

Hopefully, we are a part of history in the making...

Tell your grand kids about "When I was young, a single bitcoin could only buy you a couple of gallons of milk.  Now a single bitcoin can buy you a small country."
NO_SLAVE
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July 01, 2011, 12:51:03 PM
 #17

Hopefully, we are a part of history in the making...

Tell your grand kids about "When I was young, a single bitcoin could only buy you a couple of gallons of milk.  Now a single bitcoin can buy you a small country."

get real.  This pipe dreaam is why BTC is going down,  idiot speculators are holding the coins......who will be greater fool?  heres a hint it begins with an N.
youre holding the bag.
Alex Beckenham
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July 01, 2011, 12:51:34 PM
 #18

Personally I'm getting out now while there is still a decent profit on it. The bubble is bursting.

After the crash people thought they were buying in low and that kept it at it's price, now it's dropping to it's real value. It would be stupid to pretend to know what the real value is, but it's certainly not $17.

You're selling yours for $17 each.
You're telling people they're not worth $17 each.

Nice marketing Smiley

carbonc
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July 01, 2011, 01:11:03 PM
 #19

Hopefully, we are a part of history in the making...

Tell your grand kids about "When I was young, a single bitcoin could only buy you a couple of gallons of milk.  Now a single bitcoin can buy you a small country."

get real.  This pipe dreaam is why BTC is going down,  idiot speculators are holding the coins......who will be greater fool?  heres a hint it begins with an N.
youre holding the bag.

Regardless of speculation, I've invested nothing but my gaming time and have grown from 100 Mh/s to 1500 Mh/s with no out of pocket money.
I have some very decent capital that has resale value.  Even if the market crashes to nothing, the equipment will retain some of its value.

I'm a firm believer that value is only between two people at a particular moment in time.  
I haven't held any coins for longer than a couple of weeks.  I've made a steady income (even during the crash) from mining and will continue to do so as long as others are willing to buy at the moment I'm willing to sell.

A fool and his money are easily departed.  I look back and say "what money"...  
stic.man
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July 01, 2011, 01:13:12 PM
 #20

Seems a whole lot of people are unwilling to wait until the program progresses beyond beta.  Which is fine if you're in to make a quick buck.

This is not to say the price won't plummet or anything, but lets see what happens once there are apps/vendors in place that make using BTC easy and simple. Even if BTC stagnates I think it'll be here for awhile.  
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