A lot of talk about $50, but the very bottom may be lower

[Rampion]

TL;DR: I won't be surprised at all if the bottom is at $30ish, and I consider it a sweet spot where to place consistent bids. I don't discard a bottom of $50ish, and I'm sure we will have a huge bounce from there, but each day that passes the case for a lower bottom is stronger.

----

During the bubble inflation, I speculated about a very bottom of $30ish after the burst. Why? Most of it common sense, plus some TA.

Some context: the 2011 bubble peak was $32, and then the price adjusted for a long time to $10-$15.

The situation was more or less stable (for BTC standards) until we hit $20 in January 2013, when Bitcoin made headlines in all mainstream media. I remember it clearly: "the hacker currency is now traded at $20", and thorough articles about how this currency worked followed.

Things started to get more steam, the hype machine started to move, and as soon as we broke ATH with almost no resistance the shit hit the fan: "Bitcoin broke ATH and its going up uP UP" was a big headline everywhere, economic supplements in mainstream newspapers took it to their frontpages, and the speculative madness broke through.

The week before the crash the price doubled, and the forum was bloated by both maniacs predicting $300k per BTC this year, singularities and so on, and people writing about how imminent was the crash.

A copuple of examples from the day before the pop:

So, from this graph, if I extrapolate, I can see that by next week-end we'll hit 500

Exactly.  And we won't.

What we are seeing is a speculative bubble, pure and simple.

That's the reality. The sooner it pops, the better for everybody.

Of course we were slaughtered and called trolls, but that was short lived as the day after (April, 10th) things went back to reality.

During the bubble inflation, I saw the following:

• People was buying like maniacs just because the price was going UP - the more it went up, the more they bought
• We were in a parabolic growth trend that was completely unsustainable
• Nothing had fundamentally changed in Bitcoin, apart a huge media exposure, which led to the speculative mania

Taking into account the above, I believed that the media exposure brought some people that is going to invest in BTC long term, but they are an obvious minority. Most of the "new people" is here for the get-rich-quick thing, and as soon as they see the price going down, they sell, which triggers more downtrend and the downtrend causes panic, more sell offs, etc - and there you have a contrarian, negative cycle that won't stop until the bottom is reached and a sustainable growth trend is resumed. Don't forget this was a bubble, and the same psychology that inflated the bubble will deflate it.

Then, there are some technicals like Elliot Waves analysis that support a $30ish bottom:



4 (bottom of second bubble) is usually very close to 1 (top of 2011 bubble). Plus, common sense indicates that once the speculative mania fades, we will benefit from an expanded user base that came following the media exposure, and this expanded user base could support $30ish as the pre-bubble user base supported $14ish.

After the pop I've been trading actively, looking at the short term (days/weeks). That made my "bottom prediction" dynamic, and for many months I was convinced the most likely scenario was a bottom of $50. Why? Because we had two consecutive ATH volume days just after the pop, hundred of thousands of BTC were sold, and this did not happen in the 2011 bubble, in which at the beginning the sell off was moderate. This was not the case for the current bubble, in 2013 the post-pop action was the highest we have ever seen in this market with two consecutive days with record volume. Therefore, we could argue that pigs has already been slaughtered, and the big sell-offs already happened.

Nevertheless, the more the time passes, the more I think that the cold-minded, pre-bubble analysis I did while I was just holding and not trading may still be valid. We had absolutely no support at $88 and $79, and bubble bottoms are always lower than most people think.

[Jaroslaw]

we must go deeper than the real price is (26$) so i call bottom at 10-15$ and there you can set your buy-in

[Keldel]

Sure it could go that low, but a lot of people are thinking that and hoping to buy!

[r3wt]

so you're trying to instigate panic by suggesting that the sky is falling. you speculate the floor to be lower than 50 but offer little to no evidence aside from a worthless charter, a claimed insight into the market data, and a shitload of hyperbole. i see right through your bullshit. people like you are the worst possible people for the public persona of bitcoin and long term stability of the market.

You're welcome.

[tokeweed]

enough threads about btc going lower blablabla.

look at ppc and trc and hedge your bets.

[phantastisch]

so you're trying to instigate panic by suggesting that the sky is falling. you speculate the floor to be lower than 50 but offer little to no evidence aside from a worthless charter, a claimed insight into the market data, and a shitload of hyperbole. i see right through your bullshit. people like you are the worst possible people for the public persona of bitcoin and long term stability of the market.

You're welcome.

No, no he made a few quality posts he is immune against FUD accusations. He gets special treatment now.

[r3wt]

so you're trying to instigate panic by suggesting that the sky is falling. you speculate the floor to be lower than 50 but offer little to no evidence aside from a worthless charter, a claimed insight into the market data, and a shitload of hyperbole. i see right through your bullshit. people like you are the worst possible people for the public persona of bitcoin and long term stability of the market.

You're welcome.

No, no he made a few quality posts he is immune against FUD accusations. He gets special treatment now.

WHAT THE FUD!!! 

[phoenix1]

I agree, based purely on the amount of people who are giving you shit for saying it, who are clearly still holding in a market that is accelerating downwards. We have not seen anything close to panic yet - we will. And we are already at $72 without volume looking anything like that of a low.
It looks ugly.
Perhaps $50 for the expected big bounce and bull trap, and then quite a while later (weeks-months) for for the real low

[r3wt]

I agree, based purely on the amount of people who are giving you shit for saying it, who are clearly still holding in a market that is accelerating downwards. We have not seen anything close to panic yet - we will. And we are already at $72 without volume looking anything like that of a low.
It looks ugly.
Perhaps $50 for the expected big bounce and bull trap, and then quite a while later (weeks-months) for for the real low

more speculative propaganda. the price is low because the influx of regulations that just happened to coincide with the problems at mt gox, coupled with the uncertainty of the winklevoss IPO bullshit. a few weeks from now the price will be back up and all the gullible suckers you conned into selling at the current low price will be kicking theirselves for being so naive, while you count your stacks of crisply minted usd as you cash those wire transfers from campbx.

[SGExodus]

My view is that the bottom will be roughly the double of Jan 2013 price when the mining reward is halved.

Jan 2013 price is around $13.5, hence I felt price around $25-$30 is a very sustainable bottom price that can last all the way to 2017 when the next mining reward adjustment happens.

[wopwop]

My view is that the bottom will be roughly the double of Jan 2013 price when the mining reward is halved.

Jan 2013 price is around $13.5, hence I felt price around $25-$30 is a very sustainable bottom price that can last all the way to 2017 when the next mining reward adjustment happens.

Personalyl I believe we are already at the bottom and its up from here

BUY

[Jaroslaw]

im selling bitcoins till price will get back to 10-20$

[wopwop]

Oh look, yet another thread with a dramatic title predicting doom and gloom. Not that I disagree, somewhere between 30 and 50 sounds about right, but I don't see manipulation being included in any of these views and it's fairly obvious from the volumes and trade patterns that the biggest influence isn't folks leaving the market, it's caused by the same coins going around and around.

you are a 1st degree fool

sorry no offense

[r3wt]

Oh look, yet another thread with a dramatic title predicting doom and gloom. Not that I disagree, somewhere between 30 and 50 sounds about right, but I don't see manipulation being included in any of these views and it's fairly obvious from the volumes and trade patterns that the biggest influence isn't folks leaving the market, it's caused by the same coins going around and around.

you are a 1st degree fool

sorry no offense

you sir are the fool, and are in denial. people are catching on to your game and its time to find a new way to make money. maybe get off your ass and get a job and quit scamming people on the internet

[wopwop]

Oh look, yet another thread with a dramatic title predicting doom and gloom. Not that I disagree, somewhere between 30 and 50 sounds about right, but I don't see manipulation being included in any of these views and it's fairly obvious from the volumes and trade patterns that the biggest influence isn't folks leaving the market, it's caused by the same coins going around and around.

you are a 1st degree fool

sorry no offense

you sir are the fool, and are in denial. people are catching on to your game and its time to find a new way to make money. maybe get off your ass and get a job and quit scamming people on the internet

nice try

[r3wt]

Oh look, yet another thread with a dramatic title predicting doom and gloom. Not that I disagree, somewhere between 30 and 50 sounds about right, but I don't see manipulation being included in any of these views and it's fairly obvious from the volumes and trade patterns that the biggest influence isn't folks leaving the market, it's caused by the same coins going around and around.

you are a 1st degree fool

sorry no offense

you sir are the fool, and are in denial. people are catching on to your game and its time to find a new way to make money. maybe get off your ass and get a job and quit scamming people on the internet

nice try

wow, a clever retort. your parents must be so proud.

[Rampion]

so you're trying to instigate panic by suggesting that the sky is falling. you speculate the floor to be lower than 50 but offer little to no evidence aside from a worthless charter, a claimed insight into the market data, and a shitload of hyperbole. i see right through your bullshit. people like you are the worst possible people for the public persona of bitcoin and long term stability of the market.

I'm not trying to instigate panic, as I said many times: you need to be a delusional fool to think that posts on these forums may talk the price up or down.

Then, why panic because the price of an asset is crashing? That's an over-emotional reaction that will be very bad for your investment. Just watch the trend and act accordingly

i see right through your bullshit. people like you are the worst possible people for the public persona of bitcoin and long term stability of the market.

I really don't see why. I spread the Bitcoin word, I think it has an enormous potential to change the world, and I introduced many of my best friends to it, and they are all of them entering the BTC economy in one way or another. Some started to give me their money for me to buy them BTC (that started to happen at the end of March), and obviously I didn't buy a single BTC yet for my friends. I think I made the right choice, and I will keep waiting until I see a price that makes BTC again a good investment. That price for me is around $50 and below.

I agree, based purely on the amount of people who are giving you shit for saying it, who are clearly still holding in a market that is accelerating downwards. We have not seen anything close to panic yet - we will. And we are already at $72 without volume looking anything like that of a low.
It looks ugly.
Perhaps $50 for the expected big bounce and bull trap, and then quite a while later (weeks-months) for for the real low

more speculative propaganda. the price is low because the influx of regulations that just happened to coincide with the problems at mt gox, coupled with the uncertainty of the winklevoss IPO bullshit. a few weeks from now the price will be back up and all the gullible suckers you conned into selling at the current low price will be kicking theirselves for being so naive, while you count your stacks of crisply minted usd as you cash those wire transfers from campbx.

I call BS on that. The price is not low "because of the influx of BLAH BLAH BLAH". You seem to do not understand basic market psychology.

Why the price went from $14 to $266 in a few months? Because price goes up -> media says price is going up -> people hurry to buy -> price goes up even more and faster -> more people hurries to buy more and more -> WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT.-

Why is the price going down and will keep going down? Just because we are in a downtrend -> people sees the price going down and sell -> that causes panic and more selling -> selling causes the price to go down -> WASH RINSE AND REPEAT.-

Nothing more, nothing less. The "regulatory uncertainty" of BTC has always been there. If the prices were still going up, people would still be buying. Despite of all the good news about China, Cyprus (if that can be called good news), the Winklewoss ETF, Germany giving legitimacy to BTC... The price is still going down. Don't you see that the only thing that drives the price of a speculative asset, is precisely the price action and its current trend?

[wopwop]

Oh look, yet another thread with a dramatic title predicting doom and gloom. Not that I disagree, somewhere between 30 and 50 sounds about right, but I don't see manipulation being included in any of these views and it's fairly obvious from the volumes and trade patterns that the biggest influence isn't folks leaving the market, it's caused by the same coins going around and around.

you are a 1st degree fool

sorry no offense

you sir are the fool, and are in denial. people are catching on to your game and its time to find a new way to make money. maybe get off your ass and get a job and quit scamming people on the internet

nice try

wow, a clever retort. your parents must be so proud.

why did you have to get personal?

[r3wt]

but can't you see that bitcoin would be much better off it you all shut the fuck up and enjoy the ride?

[Rampion]

but can't you see that bitcoin would be much better off it you all shut the fuck up and enjoy the ride?

No, I don't see how anything that I can or cannot say may be better for Bitcoin. And, BTW, I don't think that an exponentially growing exchange rate is any good for Bitcoin. As I said the day before the pop:

What we are seeing is a speculative bubble, pure and simple.

That's the reality. The sooner it pops, the better for everybody.

And I still think it: before this bubble fully deflates, the better for everybody.