A lot of talk about $50, but the very bottom may be lower

[Rampion]

They're out of coins atm, only about 3.5k bought back for the next dump so there will likely be another steady and consistent rise while they stock up again.

Just a trap. As soon as the order book is replenished of bids, there goes the dump. There's no more confidence in BTC price. People is starting to realize they need to extract from it as many $ as they can.

[Rampion]

Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.

As soon as the price stays stable on thin volume or it goes down for some days, little by little, another dump will come, which will cause more panic, etc. there's absolutely no sign of a trend reversal yet.

[samson]

Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.

A lot of people who bought at $50 or lower will be considering their options right now

[Einewton]

Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.

As soon as the price stays stable on thin volume or it goes down for some days, little by little, another dump will come, which will cause more panic, etc. there's absolutely no sign of a trend reversal yet.

You're absolutely correct, there's nothing new that hasn't happened already within the last few day's to show a rebound, it appears to be on a shallow downward slope.

Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.

A lot of people who bought at $50 or lower will be considering their options right now

Yeah, I know that I have...

[Rampion]

Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.

As soon as the price stays stable on thin volume or it goes down for some days, little by little, another dump will come, which will cause more panic, etc. there's absolutely no sign of a trend reversal yet.

What will be the sign of trend reversal?

Some buying pressure? A rally on decent volume, instead of this ridiculous sucker rallies with thin and declining volume we've seen in all the traps so far, since the crash of April 10th? The money flow on the exchanges order books starting to increase, instead of declining?

You know, the usual stuff.

Plus, we could see the tipping point approaching if there would be some real despair. You know, posts declining in this forum, articles on mainstream media about how Bitcoin may be dead for good, a failed experiment and so on... The kind of things that happen around the bottom of a bubble. Im not saying this needs to happens, but for sure there is no sign of trend reversal to be seen.

[r3wt]

even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.

[asically]

I see a lot of people commenting that weren't around from June 2011 to November 2011. Those were pretty dark times. It got so bad that most miners were looking at huge losses on GPU purchases and sold their miners, especially the Europeans who had higher electricity costs and the people on both coasts in the US. In August of 2011, it was briefly more profitable to mine Namecoins, so about a quarter of the miners switched to it and killed that coin (till merged mining happened).

The fact of the matter is that new ASIC miners can mine at a huge profit right now. Even at 200 difficulty, [at these prices] ASIC miners are still making tens of dollars per day. The price has a ways to fall yet before it becomes rational again. You can pretty much mark my words, without a huge buyer out there to scoop up these coins, we won't see a new all-time high in USD price for at least a year. We either need large interest in Bitcoin (billions of dollars of investing) or for miners to start hoarding, and right now there is little incentive for either.

Of course, I say this as a miner who isn't selling his coin, but that's because I'm irrational and can afford to be irrational in the short term for the long term gains. Trying to call the "bottom" is too hard for me, instead I'll likely just mine and hoard as I can afford to, and sell in a little over a year as the market gets irrational again and I become more rational in response. There's some possibility that this isn't July 2011, and is actually the equivalent of February/March 2011, but given the number of folks in Speculation and on reddit that keep posting that 300 image of "Hold" despite the obvious fact that ASIC mining is far too profitable, I am leaning more toward the former right now.

Of course, always remember the market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent, don't bet the farm on the success or failure of Bitcoin, folks.

Noted.

[oda.krell]

even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.

Believe what exactly? That we're going down, hard? That's a fact.

Or do you mean that bitcoin has failed? Nobody in here said anything to that effect.


As an aside: I noticed there's a noticeable divide between members of this subforum, those who take it personal if price goes down, and those who don't. The latter are not exclusively speculators (although certainly all speculators belong to that group), but they share the view that the market will determine the price, no matter what. And, yes, "the market" includes manipulating whales.

Of course, there's a third group: those who invested too much to not take it personal.

[Rampion]

even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.

Believe what exactly? That we're going down, hard? That's a fact.

Or do you mean that bitcoin has failed? Nobody in here said anything to that effect.


As an aside: I noticed there's a noticeable divide between members of this subforum, those who take it personal if price goes down, and those who don't. The latter are not exclusively speculators (although certainly all speculators belong to that group), but they share the view that the market will determine the price, no matter what. And, yes, "the market" includes manipulating whales.

Of course, there's a third group: those who invested too much to not take it personal.

Very much spot on.

[r3wt]

even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.

Believe what exactly? That we're going down, hard? That's a fact.

that's not a fact. thats an opinion. just because the majority seems to consider it a fact doesn't mean it is a fact. its subject to dispute.

[Rampion]

even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.

Believe what exactly? That we're going down, hard? That's a fact.

that's not a fact. thats an opinion. just because the majority seems to consider it a fact doesn't mean it is a fact. its subject to dispute.

Yesterday was higher, the day before yesterday was higher, last week was higher. Short and mid term, is going down. Dispute that.

[MikeH]

stop acting smart, you and other big holders are dumping and causing panic - you're just hurting yourselves in the long term.

[Rampion]

stop acting smart, you and other big holders are dumping and causing panic - you're just hurting yourselves in the long term.

There's no one to be blamed. This is just the market going back to reality after a speculative illusion. People realized price is not going up and wants $ to pay for stuff. Or to buy cheaper coins and profit from shorting.

Bitcoin is very sensitive to speculation by design. This is true when the price skyrockets and when it plummets. Eventually, major adoption and enough liquidity will make it more stable, but as all commodities will always be prone to boom and bust cycles.

[N12]

stop acting smart, you and other big holders are dumping and causing panic - you're just hurting yourselves in the long term.

There's no one to be blamed. This is just the market going back to reality after a speculative illusion. People realized price is not going up and wants $ to pay for stuff. Or to buy cheaper coins and profit from shorting.

Bitcoin is very sensitive to speculation by design. This is true when the price skyrockets and when it plummets. Eventually, major adoption and enough liquidity will make it more stable, but as all commodities will always be prone to boom and bust cycles.

Stage 2, Anger (shifting blame)

[Ultraviolet]

Just read all five pages of this thread. I feel stunned at some of the comments. Those people are exactly why the denial --> fear --> capitulation phenomenon exist, and are a major source of profit for profitable traders.

$50 won't be the bottom. However, how big the $50 bull trap is will influence how hard the drop sub-$50 is. People who think this is a scare tactic are simply not thinking rationally, although it's almost disadvantageous to try to change people's thinking around since it requires people making mistakes in order to make money in a zero-sum system.

[Its About Sharing]

Just read all five pages of this thread. I feel stunned at some of the comments. Those people are exactly why the denial --> fear --> capitulation phenomenon exist, and are a major source of profit for profitable traders.

$50 won't be the bottom. However, how big the $50 bull trap is will influence how hard the drop sub-$50 is. People who think this is a scare tactic are simply not thinking rationally, although it's almost disadvantageous to try to change people's thinking around since it requires people making mistakes in order to make money in a zero-sum system.

Very well said. I am almost convinced (a dangerous place to be so I have to stay on my toes) that 50 is not a bottom at all. We are going down hard and the volume just isn't there yet.
Guys should start paying closer attention to what Rampion, Blitz, etc. are saying as these guys and guys like them are bulls, but realistic of the current situation.

It is important to not confuse feelings with observation. In other words, don't let fear and belief guide you. Don't let loving BTC mean that you shouldn't sell when the chart say sell.

I'll just post this chart again for those who care to look as there are some obvious statements being made.

[samson]

[meh32123]

Just be patient =)

[marvinrouge]

Just be patient =)

Given that unexpected happened (price went up to $75 woohoo), I'm thinking to cash-out with loss of around 1 BTC and then go Long with
leverage 5 for a while.

What is your opinion on market today? Anyone else?

too early to go long or short, just wait

it's way too risky, even without leverage5 (!)

[Miz4r]

Just read all five pages of this thread. I feel stunned at some of the comments. Those people are exactly why the denial --> fear --> capitulation phenomenon exist, and are a major source of profit for profitable traders.

$50 won't be the bottom. However, how big the $50 bull trap is will influence how hard the drop sub-$50 is. People who think this is a scare tactic are simply not thinking rationally, although it's almost disadvantageous to try to change people's thinking around since it requires people making mistakes in order to make money in a zero-sum system.

So we went from $50 may not be the bottom to $50 will most definitely not be the bottom? Don't see how you can be so sure of that, I think even 65 could have been the bottom although I estimate the chance to be 75% that we're going lower still after an epic bull trap the coming week(s). I wouldn't bet anything on it going lower than 50 though, it's possible but right now I don't see it in the market.