A lot of talk about $50, but the very bottom may be lower

[marvinrouge]

Just be patient =)

Given that unexpected happened (price went up to $75 woohoo), I'm thinking to cash-out with loss of around 1 BTC and then go Long with
leverage 5 for a while.

What is your opinion on market today? Anyone else?

too early to go long or short, just wait

it's way too risky, even without leverage5 (!)

I deleted post because it is actualy offtopic here, but if you insist ... 6 out of 7 predictions yestered returned profit, just overnight one failed.

I don't care if you like playing casino. But next time, don't ask other people their opinion

[Its About Sharing]

Well, going Short with leverage 5 overnight did not work out nicely for me (entered at around $67, market order).  



https://1broker.com

Even though things aren't looking good (price wise), you are pretty brave to short in an extremely oversold market and right on support.

Good luck, I'm sitting any bounce out for now.

[Nemesis]

bump.

Hi all the stupid bears in this thread....

I just want to say.... thank you

[ShroomsKit]

so you're trying to instigate panic by suggesting that the sky is falling. you speculate the floor to be lower than 50 but offer little to no evidence aside from a worthless charter, a claimed insight into the market data, and a shitload of hyperbole. i see right through your bullshit. people like you are the worst possible people for the public persona of bitcoin and long term stability of the market.

You're welcome.

 

[Rampion]

bump.

Hi all the stupid bears in this thread....

I just want to say.... thank you

I think it will be interesting to see if the price goes again above the 200 day EMA (which is at $80ish) with decent volume, that could trigger an epic trap.

...And we indeed bounced straight on the 200 day EMA, which is triggering what will probably be the biggest trap of this summer (see blue line):



This is quite standard stuff, so I really don't see why you get so excited.

The fact that some of you are so emotional, calling names to the people that share bearish analysis, is just a proof that the market is fearful, or very anxious at least. Its like you think that us "bears" only want the price to go down. You are mistaken, 99% of the people in here wants BTC to grow, we are just acknowledging a trend and acting accordingly. Since April 10th, the trend is down - and its still is.

[600watt]

Just read all five pages of this thread. I feel stunned at some of the comments. Those people are exactly why the denial --> fear --> capitulation phenomenon exist, and are a major source of profit for profitable traders.

$50 won't be the bottom. However, how big the $50 bull trap is will influence how hard the drop sub-$50 is. People who think this is a scare tactic are simply not thinking rationally, although it's almost disadvantageous to try to change people's thinking around since it requires people making mistakes in order to make money in a zero-sum system.

you guys talking about 50ies...    but we are leaving double digits for good...

[Miz4r]

The fact that some of you are so emotional, calling names to the people that share bearish analysis, is just a proof that the market is fearful, or very anxious at least. Its like you think that us "bears" only want the price to go down. You are mistaken, 99% of the people in here wants BTC to grow, we are just acknowledging a trend and acting accordingly. Since April 10th, the trend is down - and its still is.

The long term trend is up, and one of the things I've learned about trading is that it's usually better to follow the long term trend. Following the short term could leave you burned badly, but also give you great profits if lucky. Lucky being the keyword here.

[vokain]

we've been in a primary uptrend since pizza

[Rampion]

Just read all five pages of this thread. I feel stunned at some of the comments. Those people are exactly why the denial --> fear --> capitulation phenomenon exist, and are a major source of profit for profitable traders.

$50 won't be the bottom. However, how big the $50 bull trap is will influence how hard the drop sub-$50 is. People who think this is a scare tactic are simply not thinking rationally, although it's almost disadvantageous to try to change people's thinking around since it requires people making mistakes in order to make money in a zero-sum system.

you guys talking about 50ies...    but we are leaving double digits for good...

Based on what? This seems to me a trap, with a few positive signs for the bulls (rally on volume, etc.), but in no way is the confirmation of a trend reversal. The speculative mania phase is definitely dying (for now), so "back to normal" means that huge spikes are followed by big correction, and big crashes are followed by huge bounces.

Everything is playing pretty much as expected, I think that even the biggest bears expected huge bounces on the way down. And we are definitely on a way down since April, 10th.

[Miz4r]

Based on what? This seems to me a trap, with a few positive signs for the bulls (rally on volume, etc.), but in no way is the confirmation of a trend reversal. The speculative mania phase is definitely dying (for now), so "back to normal" means that huge spikes are followed by big correction, and big crashes are followed by huge bounces.

Everything is playing pretty much as expected, I think that even the biggest bears expected huge bounces on the way down. And we are definitely on a way down since April, 10th.

You're trying very hard to convince yourself this is a trap but you don't sound as convinced as you were before. I think it could very well be a trap, but the case for a trend reversal is getting stronger by the day. Sentiment seems much better now, Gox issues have subsided for now and confidence is returning. My initial thoughts were that we were going to see an epic bounce up into the triple digits and then a gradual fall again until we hit a new low of 55-60, but I'm getting more optimistic now which I admit is also kinda dangerous. My initial plan was to sell 50% of my bitcoins when we hit triple digits again, but now that we got there I am getting second thoughts and want to hold on to them. What if this is a trend reversal and we did hit bottom at 65? The smart thing to do is probably to just follow my initial plan, it's never wrong to take some profits when you can.

[vokain]

Based on what? This seems to me a trap, with a few positive signs for the bulls (rally on volume, etc.), but in no way is the confirmation of a trend reversal. The speculative mania phase is definitely dying (for now), so "back to normal" means that huge spikes are followed by big correction, and big crashes are followed by huge bounces.

Everything is playing pretty much as expected, I think that even the biggest bears expected huge bounces on the way down. And we are definitely on a way down since April, 10th.

You're trying very hard to convince yourself this is a trap but you don't sound as convinced as you were before. I think it could very well be a trap, but the case for a trend reversal is getting stronger by the day. Sentiment seems much better now, Gox issues have subsided for now and confidence is returning. My initial thoughts were that we were going to see an epic bounce up into the triple digits and then a gradual fall again until we hit a new low of 55-60, but I'm getting more optimistic now which I admit is also kinda dangerous. My initial plan was to sell 50% of my bitcoins when we hit triple digits again, but now that we got there I am getting second thoughts and want to hold on to them. What if this is a trend reversal and we did hit bottom at 65? The smart thing to do is probably to just follow my initial plan, it's never wrong to take some profits when you can.

Nobody ever went broke taking profits

[RationalSpeculator]

Based on what? This seems to me a trap, with a few positive signs for the bulls (rally on volume, etc.), but in no way is the confirmation of a trend reversal. The speculative mania phase is definitely dying (for now), so "back to normal" means that huge spikes are followed by big correction, and big crashes are followed by huge bounces.

Everything is playing pretty much as expected, I think that even the biggest bears expected huge bounces on the way down. And we are definitely on a way down since April, 10th.

You're trying very hard to convince yourself this is a trap but you don't sound as convinced as you were before. I think it could very well be a trap, but the case for a trend reversal is getting stronger by the day. Sentiment seems much better now, Gox issues have subsided for now and confidence is returning. My initial thoughts were that we were going to see an epic bounce up into the triple digits and then a gradual fall again until we hit a new low of 55-60, but I'm getting more optimistic now which I admit is also kinda dangerous. My initial plan was to sell 50% of my bitcoins when we hit triple digits again, but now that we got there I am getting second thoughts and want to hold on to them. What if this is a trend reversal and we did hit bottom at 65? The smart thing to do is probably to just follow my initial plan, it's never wrong to take some profits when you can.

Sounds like a wise move to lock in some profits. I've also learned that plans changed on the go are mostly costly endeavors. Especially when you become bullish when price just has gone up, or bearish when price just has gone down. Stick to the plan! I say to myself on a daily basis.

[Rampion]

Agreed that changing plans "on the go" is a mistake 99% of the times. The fact is that we usually change our plans based on emotions (e.g. "what a rally, if I sell now I may kick myself if the price keeps rising!"), while originally those plans were established through cold and rational analysis.

It costed me a few lessons to learn that changing plans on the go is -EV

[Impaler]

Rampion's analysis is some of the best I've seen, but everyone seems to be missing a critical factor.

BTC can decline simply from the flow of newly minted coins accumulating on the bid side of the ledger without anyone 'panicking' and choosing to unload long-held coin hoards.  The price of BTC very very closely follows the bid/offer ratio, any change of the number of offered dollars or number of offered Bitcoins has a decided impact on exchange rates.  Each day nearly 4K BTCs are generated (during these times of slightly faster blocks as difficulty is constantly trying to catch up), so unless ALL 4K coins are bought and permanently removed from that side of the ledger you will see a value decline.

In a broader sense BTC valuation is supported by ONLY the daily inflow of new dollars to buy up new coins.  E-commerce transactions have no real price supporting ability because dollars are just transiting through BTC at the volatile exchange rates with both parties buys and sells canceling each other out.  At 4K BTC a day we need to see $400,000 a day be expended to buy coins, the current bid depth of ~10 million can thus absorb about 1 month worth of coins, likewise the ~100K BTCs offered represents about a month worth of mining.

Now one must also consider that miners, particularly ASIC miners are in a position to 'pre-hoard' most if not all of their coins due to their low production costs (ware as a GPU miner at the margin of profitability is presumably selling more coins to cover electricity costs).  Also the typical ASIC buyer is hyper bullish on BTC.  So it is very likely that far less then 4K coins are even flowing into the exchanges and any sell off of BTC happening now are occasional profit takings from old retired whales or small holding non miners who have lost confidence.

At some point enough profitability is squeezed out of the mining that the option of pre-hoarding will end and we will see full liquidation of new coins, only then will we find the bottom.  And it will also be AFTER HASH TOP, as in 2011 the final stage of the bubbles deflation occurs after miners realize they have over extended and their hardware is no longer profitable and some of them shutdown.  Were no ware near the Hash top as it would be proceeded by a slowdown in hash rate growth, this is because of the inertia in the ASIC shipments and their high efficiency which means they are still profitably to run now (but probably not to order).  I expect the Hash top in 3-6 months and the ultimate market bottom ~3 months after that.

[vokain]

Now one must also consider that miners, particularly ASIC miners are in a position to 'pre-hoard' most if not all of their coins due to their low production costs (ware as a GPU miner at the margin of profitability is presumably selling more coins to cover electricity costs).  Also the typical ASIC buyer is hyper bullish on BTC.  So it is very likely that far less then 4K coins are even flowing into the exchanges and any sell off of BTC happening now are occasional profit takings from old retired whales or small holding non miners who have lost confidence.

At some point enough profitability is squeezed out of the mining that the option of pre-hoarding will end and we will see full liquidation of new coins, only then will we find the bottom.  And it will also be AFTER HASH TOP, as in 2011 the final stage of the bubbles deflation occurs after miners realize they have over extended and their hardware is no longer profitable and some of them shutdown.  Were no ware near the Hash top as it would be proceeded by a slowdown in hash rate growth, this is because of the inertia in the ASIC shipments and their high efficiency which means they are still profitably to run now (but probably not to order).  I expect the Hash top in 3-6 months and the ultimate market bottom ~3 months after that.

If difficulty keeps going up, that means there's less BTC/miner. This means every individual miner has to sell their coins for a higher rate as you noted in the first quoted paragraph. What I don't understand is why a miner will shut down, seeing as ASICs are at basically peak efficiency. They have to keep mining because no one will buy their ASICs from them.The only way they can recoup their investment is to keep mining. Why will they suddenly liquidate their coins once mining profitability is squeezed? I have to say, most miners are in this long-term as well. That's just in their nature.

[notme]

Now one must also consider that miners, particularly ASIC miners are in a position to 'pre-hoard' most if not all of their coins due to their low production costs (ware as a GPU miner at the margin of profitability is presumably selling more coins to cover electricity costs).  Also the typical ASIC buyer is hyper bullish on BTC.  So it is very likely that far less then 4K coins are even flowing into the exchanges and any sell off of BTC happening now are occasional profit takings from old retired whales or small holding non miners who have lost confidence.

At some point enough profitability is squeezed out of the mining that the option of pre-hoarding will end and we will see full liquidation of new coins, only then will we find the bottom.  And it will also be AFTER HASH TOP, as in 2011 the final stage of the bubbles deflation occurs after miners realize they have over extended and their hardware is no longer profitable and some of them shutdown.  Were no ware near the Hash top as it would be proceeded by a slowdown in hash rate growth, this is because of the inertia in the ASIC shipments and their high efficiency which means they are still profitably to run now (but probably not to order).  I expect the Hash top in 3-6 months and the ultimate market bottom ~3 months after that.

If difficulty keeps going up, that means there's less BTC/miner. This means every individual miner has to sell their coins for a higher rate as you noted in the first quoted paragraph. What I don't understand is why a miner will shut down, seeing as ASICs are at basically peak efficiency. They have to keep mining because no one will buy their ASICs from them.The only way they can recoup their investment is to keep mining. Why will they suddenly liquidate their coins once mining profitability is squeezed? I have to say, most miners are in this long-term as well. That's just in their nature.

There is at least 4.5X increase in efficiency available using industry standard processes over the 130nm ASICs currently being shipped.  150X current difficulty and these 130nm chips won't outproduce the electricity they take to run.

[vokain]

There is at least 4.5X increase in efficiency available using industry standard processes over the 130nm ASICs currently being shipped.  150X current difficulty and these 130nm chips won't outproduce the electricity they take to run.

so the cycle continues,
people will again begin to spend less money on mining which means more money directly into bitcoin (not necessarily but likely)
generation I of asic miners will keep mining
until generation II+ starts mining and generation I will keeping mining, probably in a larger proportion than the GPU/FPGA miners are currently with gen I

either way, when difficulty increases, price will have to eventually follow given the greater distribution of bitcoin creation.  i don't see the logic in mining as a cause of concern for price dropping

At some point enough profitability is squeezed out of the mining that the option of pre-hoarding will end and we will see full liquidation of new coins, only then will we find the bottom.  And it will also be AFTER HASH TOP, as in 2011 the final stage of the bubbles deflation occurs after miners realize they have over extended and their hardware is no longer profitable and some of them shutdown.  Were no ware near the Hash top as it would be proceeded by a slowdown in hash rate growth, this is because of the inertia in the ASIC shipments and their high efficiency which means they are still profitably to run now (but probably not to order).  I expect the Hash top in 3-6 months and the ultimate market bottom ~3 months after that.

so as miners realize they will make less and less per GH, they will suddenly dump for a loss after they realize that it is actually that much harder to procure bitcoins?

[xorglub]

The "mining ROI is dropping so I'm better off buying" is a fallacy. Sure increased demand and lower supply makes the price shoot up in the short term but that is not sustainable and just leads to speculative bubbles.

It's like company layoffs, it might save them some money in the short term meaning higher profits, but it's usually sign the company is not doing so well to begin with...

Buying BTC and doing nothing with them does not create actual value. Value will come from having an economy built around bitcoin.

[vokain]

The "mining ROI is dropping so I'm better off buying" is a fallacy. Sure increased demand and lower supply makes the price shoot up in the short term but that is not sustainable and just leads to speculative bubbles.

It's like company layoffs, it might save them some money in the short term meaning higher profits, but it's usually sign the company is not doing so well to begin with...

Buying BTC and doing nothing with them does not create actual value. Value will come from having an economy built around bitcoin.

it is being built. by your logic you wouldn't have invested in google when they IPO'd because they kinda only did searches well, forget what they have in the pipeline.

buying bitcoins and doing nothing with them makes them more scarce and is a factor for increased prices, and the increased prices will attract people that want to provide something for bitcoins. it's self-perpetuating.

[Impaler]

Declining profitability of mining presents a miner with three choices, stop mining OR continue to mine while selling most coins to pay for the marginal electricity consumed in mining OR mine at a loss and become a speculator.  Any earlier coins the miner may have hoarded are clearly separate and changes in mining profitability have no effect on decisions to hold or sell those coins.

The overall effect of declining mining profitability is miming becomes much more like REAL METAL mining, today most mines operate on very narrow profit margins and sell ALL their metal immediately (or even as futures), they do not hoard and speculate in it because its too risky vs their narrow margin.  This is in fact a good thing because these narrow margin miners create a very very stable supply of new coins entering, every day your getting 144 blocks worth of coins being sold and the exchange rate will fluctuate only because of demand side changes.  That's the behavior we saw during the low volatility year of 2012.

The combination of ASICs, the block reward reduction to 25 (which immediately cuts in half the flow of new coins and artificially doubles the exchange rate) and a media fueled bubble have destabilized all this and we won't know a stable price until all those factors have faded away.

Doing some quick calculations on when an 1st Generation ASIC (~100 Mhash/J) becomes unprofitable to run (aka marginal costs only, ignore all hardware).  Assuming a decline to $30 for BTC and electricity at 0.15 per kWh difficulty would need to reach 440 million, roughly 17 times what it is now or 4 doublings, at present it seems to be doubling every 2 months so I'm predicting 6-8 months for first generation ASICs to be scrap metal.