[POLL] What will be the bottom?

[dnaleor]

Just to get a view of the sentiment here; simple question:

What will be the bottom of the USD/BTC price?

If you think it's f.e. 36$, choose 35$ (choose the nearest number)

(edit: bottom defined as "it will not go lower than this number. When this number is reached, the price will go up significantly and will stay up at least 3 months")

[nobbynobbynoob]

$50. But I don't really know.

[ElectricMucus]

0
zero
nada will be the ultimate bottom.

[dnaleor]

I think it will touch briefly around 36$ and then go up again. But also a guess...

[dnaleor]

0

You should vote 0.01$ then 

[ElectricMucus]

0

You should vote 0.01$ then  

That implies a market cap of 210,000
With zero I mean eventually (Possibly decades) people will not use Bitcoin as an economic instrument anymore.

[dnaleor]

0

You should vote 0.01$ then  

That implies a market cap of 210,000

lol true

edit: But i garantee you that I will find some friends to buy all the BTC at 0.01$ if that ever happens

[ElectricMucus]

0

You should vote 0.01$ then 

That implies a market cap of 210,000

lol true

edit: But i garantee you that I will find some friends to buy all the BTC at 0.01$ if that ever happens

I doubt that.

[ElectricMucus]

But besides that, A bottom before the next leg up, or before a new ATH should be above a dollar. I expect Bitcoin to remain volitale until it is abandoned some day.

[dnaleor]

Seems like most people antiipate a bottom around 50$ or 30-35$

Exactly the numbers I have in my head (and in the strong buy orders )

[dominicus]

0

You should vote 0.01$ then  

That implies a market cap of 210,000

lol true

edit: But i garantee you that I will find some friends to buy all the BTC at 0.01$ if that ever happens

That assumes you didn't call them friends at $20, and again at $2, and yet again at $0.05.

[kwukduck]

I'm convinced it will be somewhere between $5-$10 by the end of the year, sure we're gonna have some big panic sells over the coming months, lots of people that desperately need some (be it at huge losses) money for summer vacations and then after for the holidays.

Basicaly we'll be dropping hard till the end of August.
We'll see a small rise back from Sept-Nov.
Somewhere in November people will start massive dumps again to get money out for Santa n stuff, crashing the price completely, causing more panic and loss of trust than we've ever seen before.

[ElectricMucus]

I'm convinced it will be somewhere between $5-$10 by the end of the year, sure we're gonna have some big panic sells over the coming months, lots of people that desperately need some (be it at huge losses) money for summer vacations and then after for the holidays.

Basicaly we'll be dropping hard till the end of August.
We'll see a small rise back from Sept-Nov.
Somewhere in November people will start massive dumps again to get money out for Santa n stuff, crashing the price completely, causing more panic and loss of trust than we've ever seen before.

I think you are trying to convince, others and most importantly yourself.
Why do people do not get the difference between saying something is possible and being convinced something will happen based on "intuition" (mostly group-think)

[tutkarz]

I'm convinced it will be somewhere between $5-$10 by the end of the year, sure we're gonna have some big panic sells over the coming months, lots of people that desperately need some (be it at huge losses) money for summer vacations and then after for the holidays.

Basicaly we'll be dropping hard till the end of August.
We'll see a small rise back from Sept-Nov.
Somewhere in November people will start massive dumps again to get money out for Santa n stuff, crashing the price completely, causing more panic and loss of trust than we've ever seen before.

why you think it will drop to 2011 value when today its way more popular than back then. To me its impossible.

[dominicus]

Only ~0.2% of outstanding BTC are traded on any given day...only 1% per week.
This is much less turnover (~6x less) than many sleepy, established corporate shares whose stock is mostly trapped in institutional funds.

My point being it seems a large share of BTC's are not frequently traded, they are being mostly held, except for a very shallow set of bitcoiners.

This, coupled with the fact that bitcoin has no "fundamentals" in any sense of the word as it applies to currencies or corporate shares (i.e. no book-value, no established trade-for-goods base, no inherent physical usage outside of trade, no backing, no market stabilization entity), points to the activity of predicting future pricing literally impossible.

You're essentially left with divining on the reactionary psychology of a shallow subset of folks that will happen to be trading BTC for fiat out in future.  How much "float" of fiat currency will folks wish to trade in/out of BTC vs. the "float" of BTC's current holders are willing to make available to the market?

Another quite unique aspect of Bitcoin pricing, which is purely speculative on my part, but becoming more obvious (at least to me) over the last few months, is the stiction of BTC pricing.  After a big movement in price, up or down, caused or accompanied by large trade volume, the pricing "sticks" to a narrow pricing band for several days or weeks until another wave of high-vol trading occurs and resets the price elsewhere.  This may just be another consequence of the current shallowness of the bitcoin market, that may go away with higher transactional adoption...or it may stay if the drivers of additional transactions choose to store in fiat instead of holding BTC.  Given the expected relative ease and low future cost of transacting into/out-of BTC, this may not go away.

Head over to CoinLab for nice charts on current bitcoin liquidity. See how the Winkledudes can cause the BTC price drop -$20 by liquidating just 10% of their BTC holdings.
http://coinlab.com/liquidity

[dnaleor]

It seems 60 was the borrom after all...

[bitcoin44me]

It seems 60 was the borrom after all...

Wait 2-3 days

[Moogle]

i dont think it'll drop below $35

[LGT06]

It seems 60 was the borrom after all...

Wait 2-3 days

Yeah, I don't think we've hit bottom yet either.

[dnaleor]

if we can eat the 80-sell wall, we will have seen the bottom at 60. If not, the bottom will be lower I guess...