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JTPhotography
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December 03, 2017, 02:03:33 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.

If, over the next several years, that number increased to 5 or 10% (which, based on the current exponential growth, doesn’t seem unlikely at all), how would you estimate how that would affect the price of BTC?
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"Apparently, so I am told, there exist "people" who prefer to wipe sitting down. From the front. Initial research indicates it could be up to half the population." -- benjamindees
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December 03, 2017, 02:08:46 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.

If, over the next several years, that number increased to 5 or 10% (which, based on the current exponential growth, doesn’t seem unlikely at all), how would you estimate how that would affect the price of BTC?

It should affect the price with a positive outcome for bitcoin, as it is the first cryptocurrency. Although we still have some troubles with on chain transactions with high fees. Other famous alts will also gain more in price. Number of people that hold some cryptocurrency should increase since now bitcoin is in the mainstream media and it is a topic that many people talk about, I heard that even some people that don't know anything about it just want to buy it as an investment.

It is possible that more people begin to use bitcoin and crypto crrency in general, why not? Many people don't believe in their governments and bitcoin offers something else somewhat a freedom + many other projects are coming to life as a result of bitcoin that don't have to do anything with another altcoin.

Honestly it depends how governments will react on this situation, since in case that % raise more , people might use cryptocurrency for a day to day use, so a lot of things can happen in between.
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December 03, 2017, 02:17:12 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.
That is completely false. There are only 6.3 million addresses holding more than 100 USD, and even if that was one per person (which clearly is not the case, as most wallets are the sum of several hundred addresses), that would be less than 0.1%. My personal estimate is less than 0.01%.
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December 03, 2017, 02:26:45 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.

If, over the next several years, that number increased to 5 or 10% (which, based on the current exponential growth, doesn’t seem unlikely at all), how would you estimate how that would affect the price of BTC?

1% of the world population holding coins its impossible.
We have only ~ 25 millions addresses with coins and barely 280 million transactions in the blockchain.
Whoever wrote that is pretty stupid.

Secondary.
If there are 100 million poeple holding x value in coins.
To increase the number from 100 millions to 1 billions ,maintaining the value in usd and taking into account that the numbers of BTC is limited is obvious the price has to go up.
It is not about math, it is about logic.




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December 03, 2017, 02:33:55 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.
That is completely false. There are only 6.3 million addresses holding more than 100 USD, and even if that was one per person (which clearly is not the case, as most wallets are the sum of several hundred addresses), that would be less than 0.1%. My personal estimate is less than 0.01%.

Yeah! That's true, suppose if 1% of the world population holding at least $100, it sums up total holding worth to be at least $700B which is too high from real. But also 0.01% isn't convincing estimate since 0.01% only adds-up to 7M people and only Coinbase reports 10M+ customers so I think right count is somewhere between 0.1-0.4%.
Now about price, With every 1% increase in adoption, we can assume 20x for first increase, 2x after second increase, 120% after third and so on..
So suppose today price is $11K, if 1% of additional world's population start using Bitcoins, price will go to $220K, $440K when additional 1% of the population start using it, $528K with another 1% and so on.., this is my personal estimates based on so far run of Bitcoin.

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December 03, 2017, 02:41:48 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.
That is completely false. There are only 6.3 million addresses holding more than 100 USD, and even if that was one per person (which clearly is not the case, as most wallets are the sum of several hundred addresses), that would be less than 0.1%. My personal estimate is less than 0.01%.

Yeah! That's true, suppose if 1% of the world population holding at least $100, it sums up total holding worth to be at least $700B which is too high from real.

1% of the world population is 70 million x 100$ = 7 billions $.
Common you take 1% and the multiply by 100, it's obvious.
How did you arrive at 700 billions?

JTPhotography
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December 03, 2017, 03:06:30 PM
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I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.
That is completely false. There are only 6.3 million addresses holding more than 100 USD, and even if that was one per person (which clearly is not the case, as most wallets are the sum of several hundred addresses), that would be less than 0.1%. My personal estimate is less than 0.01%.

Yeah! That's true, suppose if 1% of the world population holding at least $100, it sums up total holding worth to be at least $700B which is too high from real. But also 0.01% isn't convincing estimate since 0.01% only adds-up to 7M people and only Coinbase reports 10M+ customers so I think right count is somewhere between 0.1-0.4%.
Now about price, With every 1% increase in adoption, we can assume 20x for first increase, 2x after second increase, 120% after third and so on..
So suppose today price is $11K, if 1% of additional world's population start using Bitcoins, price will go to $220K, $440K when additional 1% of the population start using it, $528K with another 1% and so on.., this is my personal estimates based on so far run of Bitcoin.

Thanks, that’s the answer I was looking for. I said 1% but obviously I must’ve heard .01%.

It is such a small number and when you look at it the way you calculate, these lofty price forecasts don’t seem that crazy.
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December 03, 2017, 03:43:57 PM
 #8

I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.
That is completely false. There are only 6.3 million addresses holding more than 100 USD, and even if that was one per person (which clearly is not the case, as most wallets are the sum of several hundred addresses), that would be less than 0.1%. My personal estimate is less than 0.01%.

i just want to add a little correction here that wallets have hundreds and sometimes much more addresses but that doesn't mean they contain any balance. they are used addresses. and most wallets will have 2-5 addresses with some balance in them, unless someone spreads their balance among multiple ones intentionally or the way the "change address" is designed by the wallet makes things messy.

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December 03, 2017, 03:48:33 PM
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Actually I would say that this is an economic question  Tongue simply put the price would increase, the increased use means an increased demand and given supply is fairly fixed (it's still growing slightly until the cap of 21m) then price would increase.

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December 03, 2017, 03:50:47 PM
 #10

I read somewhere that about 1% of the world population hold at least $100 in BTC.
That is completely false. There are only 6.3 million addresses holding more than 100 USD, and even if that was one per person (which clearly is not the case, as most wallets are the sum of several hundred addresses), that would be less than 0.1%. My personal estimate is less than 0.01%.

Yeah! That's true, suppose if 1% of the world population holding at least $100, it sums up total holding worth to be at least $700B which is too high from real. But also 0.01% isn't convincing estimate since 0.01% only adds-up to 7M people and only Coinbase reports 10M+ customers so I think right count is somewhere between 0.1-0.4%.
Now about price, With every 1% increase in adoption, we can assume 20x for first increase, 2x after second increase, 120% after third and so on..
So suppose today price is $11K, if 1% of additional world's population start using Bitcoins, price will go to $220K, $440K when additional 1% of the population start using it, $528K with another 1% and so on.., this is my personal estimates based on so far run of Bitcoin.

how did you arrive at this calculation? Namely if additional 1% starts using bitcoin, the price goes up 20times?

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