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Author Topic: Dotcom bubble vs crypto: Why BTC is NOT in a bubble  (Read 401 times)
cellard
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December 03, 2017, 04:52:40 PM
 #1

This simple picture explains how we are not anywhere near a bubble, and a lot of people are panic selling due the round number of $10000:



Notice how

1) Dotcom bubble peaked way, way, way higher than peak crypto (as a whole, not only BTC) marketcap.
2) When the dotcom bubble bursted back in 99-2000, the winners like Amazon, make that bubble burst look like a tiny pump in the long run. Bitcoin will do this, and once it's worth millions, a lot of people are going to hate themselves. Just give it a decade or so.


So remember when anyone tells you that "dotcom bubble" nonsense, because Bitcoin will be the Amazon of crypto.

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December 03, 2017, 05:10:43 PM
 #2

Dotcom bursted because people were recklessly investing in startups with no proof of concepts or anything - kinda like what's currently happening with ICO's. Bitcoin obviously has utility now - it is accepted as a currency in some places, it has proven to be a very secure store of value, since it only can be stolen due to human mistakes, so it can't go to zero if it will start dropping. In fact, no one even knows how much it is "truly" worth with its current level of utility if we'd cut out all the speculation - maybe it would still be undervalued.

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December 03, 2017, 05:15:41 PM
 #3

I hope you can understand, that bitcoin can be in an upward growth trend but still be in a bubble at the same time. It has grown hugely in the last few years and much of the latest surge seems to be "FOMO" - Fear of missing out. The amount of speculative investors may be outstripping it's current practical usage. I hope bitcoin keeps growing, but swings up can easily be followed by swings down.

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December 03, 2017, 05:21:13 PM
 #4

Your charts put it in a very good perspective. Thank you for this clear representation - definitely a great argument against the sceptics!
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December 03, 2017, 05:38:23 PM
 #5

Bitcoin bubble is not gonna reach any soon. People think that 10000$ OR 12000$ is the current highest peak of Bitcoin and they also believe that Bitcoin is not profitable anymore. However, in real is just the 2nd phase after the beginning of the the Bitcoin. The Bitcoin bubble will reach when one Bitcoin will worth as much as 1 or 2 million USD. Those who are selling their Bitcoins for just some profits are really not believers of Bitcoin. Bitcoin will reach the mars one day and after that it will reach extraterrestrial planets. Long live Bitcoin.

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December 03, 2017, 06:04:08 PM
 #6

This is a nice example of bitcoin vs the dotcom scenario but just because it shows we are in no way near the same territory does not mean we can not be in a bubble. The differing sizes don't signal anything. I think cryptos will always be smaller than the online start ups from those days.

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December 03, 2017, 06:14:20 PM
 #7

This simple picture explains how we are not anywhere near a bubble, and a lot of people are panic selling due the round number of $10000:

[~IMG snipped~]

Notice how

1) Dotcom bubble peaked way, way, way higher than peak crypto (as a whole, not only BTC) marketcap.
2) When the dotcom bubble bursted back in 99-2000, the winners like Amazon, make that bubble burst look like a tiny pump in the long run. Bitcoin will do this, and once it's worth millions, a lot of people are going to hate themselves. Just give it a decade or so.


So remember when anyone tells you that "dotcom bubble" nonsense, because Bitcoin will be the Amazon of crypto.

Nice reasoning, but the past doesn't guarantee anything for the future. Sure, the situation looks like your picture's graphs, but Amazon & Apple didn't just rise because people thought they could profit from buying their stocks. No. They rose because of their product.
Bitcoin is rising because of all the stupid people investing it, just to make some money. Only a small percentage of the Bitcoin owners actually uses it for its purpose as a cryptocurrency: To send & receive money.

I know a lot of people who own Bitcoins, but few actually know what Bitcoin is, besides that standard "Cryptocurrency, anonymous, transaction, decentralized, miners, etc", which some don't even know.

It's not that dotcom bubble, but it's a bubble. No one knows when and how..
Maybe the bubble won't explode, as it could just slowly leak all of its air (value) out, shrinking to its actual value or below that, as I predict that another coin will take over its position as the dominant cryptocurrency.

People are only holding it, hoping that its value will rise... But that value will stop rising, once people realize that it's not going to rise forever. People start pulling their money out, starting a chain reaction and you'll have the panic sale we've all been waiting for!
Anyways, I'm a Bitcoin-fan too, but I'm thinking logically & realistically. Bitcoin is in a bubble and people should stop denying that.

Regards,
Trump


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December 03, 2017, 06:23:44 PM
 #8

This simple picture explains how we are not anywhere near a bubble, and a lot of people are panic selling due the round number of $10000:

[~IMG snipped~]

Notice how

1) Dotcom bubble peaked way, way, way higher than peak crypto (as a whole, not only BTC) marketcap.
2) When the dotcom bubble bursted back in 99-2000, the winners like Amazon, make that bubble burst look like a tiny pump in the long run. Bitcoin will do this, and once it's worth millions, a lot of people are going to hate themselves. Just give it a decade or so.


So remember when anyone tells you that "dotcom bubble" nonsense, because Bitcoin will be the Amazon of crypto.

Nice reasoning, but the past doesn't guarantee anything for the future. Sure, the situation looks like your picture's graphs, but Amazon & Apple didn't just rise because people thought they could profit from buying their stocks. No. They rose because of their product.
Bitcoin is rising because of all the stupid people investing it, just to make some money. Only a small percentage of the Bitcoin owners actually uses it for its purpose as a cryptocurrency: To send & receive money.

I know a lot of people who own Bitcoins, but few actually know what Bitcoin is, besides that standard "Cryptocurrency, anonymous, transaction, decentralized, miners, etc", which some don't even know.

It's not that dotcom bubble, but it's a bubble. No one knows when and how..
Maybe the bubble won't explode, as it could just slowly leak all of its air (value) out, shrinking to its actual value or below that, as I predict that another coin will take over its position as the dominant cryptocurrency.

People are only holding it, hoping that its value will rise... But that value will stop rising, once people realize that it's not going to rise forever. People start pulling their money out, starting a chain reaction and you'll have the panic sale we've all been waiting for!
Anyways, I'm a Bitcoin-fan too, but I'm thinking logically & realistically. Bitcoin is in a bubble and people should stop denying that.

Regards,
Trump

Very good comment! Do you have a date in mind when that would happen? Or at what price that could happen?  I understand thats what everyone is looking for and it’s impossible estimate, yet I woul like to hear your speculation on this.
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December 03, 2017, 06:58:53 PM
 #9

Most of users that say bitcoin is bubble only share fake news to reduce demand and buy more bitcoin.

bitcoin is stronger than bubble .
cellard
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December 03, 2017, 07:11:08 PM
 #10

This simple picture explains how we are not anywhere near a bubble, and a lot of people are panic selling due the round number of $10000:

[~IMG snipped~]

Notice how

1) Dotcom bubble peaked way, way, way higher than peak crypto (as a whole, not only BTC) marketcap.
2) When the dotcom bubble bursted back in 99-2000, the winners like Amazon, make that bubble burst look like a tiny pump in the long run. Bitcoin will do this, and once it's worth millions, a lot of people are going to hate themselves. Just give it a decade or so.


So remember when anyone tells you that "dotcom bubble" nonsense, because Bitcoin will be the Amazon of crypto.

Nice reasoning, but the past doesn't guarantee anything for the future. Sure, the situation looks like your picture's graphs, but Amazon & Apple didn't just rise because people thought they could profit from buying their stocks. No. They rose because of their product.
Bitcoin is rising because of all the stupid people investing it, just to make some money. Only a small percentage of the Bitcoin owners actually uses it for its purpose as a cryptocurrency: To send & receive money.

I know a lot of people who own Bitcoins, but few actually know what Bitcoin is, besides that standard "Cryptocurrency, anonymous, transaction, decentralized, miners, etc", which some don't even know.

It's not that dotcom bubble, but it's a bubble. No one knows when and how..
Maybe the bubble won't explode, as it could just slowly leak all of its air (value) out, shrinking to its actual value or below that, as I predict that another coin will take over its position as the dominant cryptocurrency.

People are only holding it, hoping that its value will rise... But that value will stop rising, once people realize that it's not going to rise forever. People start pulling their money out, starting a chain reaction and you'll have the panic sale we've all been waiting for!
Anyways, I'm a Bitcoin-fan too, but I'm thinking logically & realistically. Bitcoin is in a bubble and people should stop denying that.

Regards,
Trump

Wrong, maybe you are too flat sighted to see how big increments in Bitcoin valuation are due it's uses as an asset class and not as something to transact from A to B. In order for the price to go up, you need big pockets getting in. Look at all the billionaires getting their off-shore accounts getting caught on all of these "Panama Paper" type of leaks, then do the math and realize how all of that money isn't going to suddenly become friends with huge governmental taxes, they will look for an alternative and that alternative is the bitcoin blockchain, because it's the only one with enough decentralization and liquidity. Anyone with enough money to matter is going to choose a blockchain that has a long track record of history, not some experiment, and no other coin can claim Bitcoin's track record, a main reason of why no other coin is going to displace it from #1.

This use case of decentralized gold alone puts it on the trillions/marketcap. And everyday usage for transactions will come next year with the lightning networks. If you do some basic math, you'll see how current numbers are absolutely nothing.

Good luck, just don't be this guy:


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December 03, 2017, 07:30:33 PM
 #11

Dotcom bursted because people were recklessly investing in startups with no proof of concepts or anything - kinda like what's currently happening with ICO's. Bitcoin obviously has utility now - it is accepted as a currency in some places, it has proven to be a very secure store of value, since it only can be stolen due to human mistakes, so it can't go to zero if it will start dropping. In fact, no one even knows how much it is "truly" worth with its current level of utility if we'd cut out all the speculation - maybe it would still be undervalued.

ICOs and Dotcom is a fair comparison.  Does that mean crypto-currencies Amazon is hidden among the thousand plus coins/tokens. As for Bitcoins utility. It would appear Bitcoin is looking more and more like a commodity and less like a currency.  A commoditys value is determined by its demand and current demand is high.

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December 03, 2017, 09:09:18 PM
 #12

This simple picture explains how we are not anywhere near a bubble, and a lot of people are panic selling due the round number of $10000:

[~IMG snipped~]

Notice how

1) Dotcom bubble peaked way, way, way higher than peak crypto (as a whole, not only BTC) marketcap.
2) When the dotcom bubble bursted back in 99-2000, the winners like Amazon, make that bubble burst look like a tiny pump in the long run. Bitcoin will do this, and once it's worth millions, a lot of people are going to hate themselves. Just give it a decade or so.


So remember when anyone tells you that "dotcom bubble" nonsense, because Bitcoin will be the Amazon of crypto.

Nice reasoning, but the past doesn't guarantee anything for the future. Sure, the situation looks like your picture's graphs, but Amazon & Apple didn't just rise because people thought they could profit from buying their stocks. No. They rose because of their product.
Bitcoin is rising because of all the stupid people investing it, just to make some money. Only a small percentage of the Bitcoin owners actually uses it for its purpose as a cryptocurrency: To send & receive money.

I know a lot of people who own Bitcoins, but few actually know what Bitcoin is, besides that standard "Cryptocurrency, anonymous, transaction, decentralized, miners, etc", which some don't even know.

It's not that dotcom bubble, but it's a bubble. No one knows when and how..
Maybe the bubble won't explode, as it could just slowly leak all of its air (value) out, shrinking to its actual value or below that, as I predict that another coin will take over its position as the dominant cryptocurrency.

People are only holding it, hoping that its value will rise... But that value will stop rising, once people realize that it's not going to rise forever. People start pulling their money out, starting a chain reaction and you'll have the panic sale we've all been waiting for!
Anyways, I'm a Bitcoin-fan too, but I'm thinking logically & realistically. Bitcoin is in a bubble and people should stop denying that.

Regards,
Trump

Wrong, maybe you are too flat sighted to see how big increments in Bitcoin valuation are due it's uses as an asset class and not as something to transact from A to B. In order for the price to go up, you need big pockets getting in. Look at all the billionaires getting their off-shore accounts getting caught on all of these "Panama Paper" type of leaks, then do the math and realize how all of that money isn't going to suddenly become friends with huge governmental taxes, they will look for an alternative and that alternative is the bitcoin blockchain, because it's the only one with enough decentralization and liquidity. Anyone with enough money to matter is going to choose a blockchain that has a long track record of history, not some experiment, and no other coin can claim Bitcoin's track record, a main reason of why no other coin is going to displace it from #1.

This use case of decentralized gold alone puts it on the trillions/marketcap. And everyday usage for transactions will come next year with the lightning networks. If you do some basic math, you'll see how current numbers are absolutely nothing.

Good luck, just don't be this guy:



Incorrect. I'm not flat-sighted. Let me explain my point of view:

There's regular people, who are too dumb to understand things.
There's flat-sighted people, who have to relate everything they see to an event in the past, obviously incapable of adapting to new technology.
There's people who think they're better than flat-sighted people, calling the flat-sighted people wrong, simply because they have a different opinion, like you. Let me tell you: You're just as flat-sighted, just on the other side.
And there's the intelligent people, who judge the situation on its essence, instead of on its appearance, like me.

Now it's very simple that you're too ignorant to change your point of view. You're not gonna change. Anyways, please listen to what I gotta say:

I know that Bitcoin is the largest, most accepted and most popular cryptocurrency, but unless it gets a whole ton of updates, it's not gonna maintain its position.
Blockchain technology is there to stay, as it provides a lot of advantages, but Bitcoin? The only reason it's still there, is because it's popular and the only cryptocurrency that's being advertised in the news.

It's going to stay on top for a couple more years, because people think that Bitcoin is the best Cryptocurrency, just because it's the biggest. Some Bitcoin holders don't even know any other cryptos.
Until that changes, I agree, Bitcoin is going to stay on top, but in a couple years, people will start to realize that it's Blockchain technology, not Bitcoin, that they should invest in.

Wikipedia defines a bubble as: An economic bubble or asset bubble (sometimes also referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania, or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value.[1][2][3] It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.

It's obvious that the vast majority of the Bitcoin holders is only holding it to gain profits. So, does that make it a bubble? Yep!
The majority of the investors doesn't even know why Bitcoin is rising or think that its rise is because of Bitcoin's limited supply, which would force its price to go up. Obviously, they only look at the profits.

Read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble#Extrapolation
Extrapolation, it's called.

I don't expect you to alter your opinion, but I hope you do understand & respect mine.

Regards,
Trump





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December 03, 2017, 10:21:24 PM
 #13

One thing that makes me think that there is plenty of room for Bitcoin to grow befor a crash is the fact that it is still not mainstream. What I mean is that there are brand new investors investing in Bitcoin every day. We are really just at the beginning of the cryptocurrency market economy. I think there will continue to be more buyers than sellers for a long time. A crash could happen but I would be surprised if it was within the next year.

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December 03, 2017, 11:38:13 PM
 #14

 Bitcoin isn't anywhere near a bubble. The closest we have gotten to a bubble are ICO and that has levelled off with investors getting aware that ICO isn't much of the path to quick wealth they assumed.

Bitcoin still has a long way to go before we get anywhere near price stabilization. Even then, it won't be a bubble because of the very nature of Bitcoin, being that it is not inflationary, the supply would never be higher than demand.

You'll understand what I mean if you consider the number of bitcoin in circulation and the fact that there is room to purchase micro units of it. There'll be a lot of demand for the foreseeable future.

With the involvement of wall street and other financial markets in the coming months and years. The market would rather expand as more individual investors would be more confident to get involved with bitcoin.

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December 04, 2017, 12:40:34 AM
 #15

Bitcoin bubble is not gonna reach any soon. People think that 10000$ OR 12000$ is the current highest peak of Bitcoin and they also believe that Bitcoin is not profitable anymore. However, in real is just the 2nd phase after the beginning of the the Bitcoin. The Bitcoin bubble will reach when one Bitcoin will worth as much as 1 or 2 million USD. Those who are selling their Bitcoins for just some profits are really not believers of Bitcoin. Bitcoin will reach the mars one day and after that it will reach extraterrestrial planets. Long live Bitcoin.


I believe that's one of the causes of the price to go down once it reached $10K - a lot of people wanted to profit and solid their bitcoins at that price. Some felt satisfied with that value because they believe that bitcoin has reached the peak or ultimate high. Others prefer to have short term profits with bitcoin instead of investing in long term.

As to when or what amount the price would really reach its peak is really hard to tell, you may never now when the bubble would pop. Perhaps bitcoin still has a long way to go before it crashes, or maybe it can happen any day from now?

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December 04, 2017, 04:48:36 AM
 #16

You can't just say that it's not a bubble because we're not at the same market cap. You must also put into account that the dotcom bubble was something that was INSANELY easily accessible to people, while Bitcoin is something which is hard to buy without an insane amount in fees (given you don't want to release too much of your information) So that's something of a non part of your argument.

Next part, the fact that certain companies made it in the long run. Well of course some of the companies made it out, but if you were to take ALL of the companies and all of the money that was lost (companies going bankrupt and money being lost in investing) you'd see that it is much higher then the market shares of the companies that did make it out.

So, Bitcoin COULD STILL be a bubble.

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Layonk
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December 04, 2017, 04:57:28 AM
 #17

Your charts put it in a very good perspective. Thank you for this clear representation - definitely a great argument against the sceptics!
I also support if member here make thread like this so newbie like me not fear again to hold bitcoin.
This thread is enough to clarify what really happen. Thanks

CryptosapienZA
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December 04, 2017, 06:01:09 AM
 #18

Great charts. I absolutely agree with you. I don't think we are in a bubble. The cryptocurrency market has to atleast get into the trillions for that to happen. Personally that is why I am a bit worried about these futures. I would have liked more mass adoption before this wall street take over.I think these futures will take us to bubble territory much quicker.

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