How much is bitcoin really worth?

[monkofnothing]

How much is BTC really worth? I'm not asking for a prediction but as honest answer as you can. My n00be thought is this if its overvalued its held on to and not spent if its undervalued its spent like heck and not saved. What is your opinion about the price level that support both of these uses. Where do you think the balance is?
By the way I know I'm asking for the neigh impossible answer.

[1714472509]

1714472509

[Cluster2k]

From my point of view its always been the cost of production plus some value associated with usefulness for buying goods and value as a highly speculative asset.  Right now we're seeing GPU miners being squeezed out by the cost of electricity.  Only those with very cheap or 'free' electricity can afford to mine.  If the price of bitcoins exceeds the electricity price to generate them it makes sense to buy and not mine.  This also pushes the price up.  Actual commerce in bitcoins is still small.  Name one major online retailer that gives a discount for using bitcoins or favours their use in preference to other forms of payment.

The speculative value of bitcoins right now has popped.  Cyprus' bank troubles are long gone in the minds of the mainstream media and those speculators burned by the $250+ bubble might be wary of venturing in again.

Enter ASICs.  These little devices make a bitcoin price of $2 still profitable with current difficulty.  In the short term there will be pressure downwards on the price as ASIC miners basically do not care about costs.  A BFL Jalapeno at 5Gh/s with laptop costs as little as US$0.10c/day to run.  It's a rounding error in anyone's daily budget.  These miners will never give up and continue to place pressure on the price to recoup their investments.

[monkofnothing]

One would think it would stabilize around that price and its far from that. BTC is full of surprises.

[WeltMaster]

Alternative currencies as an idea? Valueless. Restoring wealth back to the people has limitless "worth".

In use currently? Well, if you factor out speculation I'd give a bullish value of around 1 USD/bitcoin. Very few transactions NEED to be in bitcoin currently that are not illicit and Silkroad by itself doesn't have the volume to push the currency into multi-multi-million market cap. Never mind billion-dollar marketcap.

However with all this hype and speculation that bitcoin will root out all evil bankers and offers the chance for speculators to have a portion of a "future-currency" it's easy to see bitcoin in low/middle double figures.

Because the market is based about 90% on speculation, bubbles will form and collapse and as a whole the price will endlessly struggle to find a consistent "value" until it is more widely adopted. I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

Of coarse these figures are out my ass and anyone giving an accurate assumption of the bitcoin price is purely supposition.

TLDR: Price wont find a true value until mass adoption and speculation is minuscule/not needed. And if/when that happens you're good looking at cool quadruple figures