Sports Betting tips by Trofo

[Trofo]

I decided to start a topic here because I noticed that I have much better ROI when publishing tips publicly. My main sports are football and tennis. Most of the tips will be from Premier League, Primera, Champions League and ATP 1000 & 500 tournaments. I will use this first post as sort of history and will edit it with all the new tips. Tip explanations will be in their own posts lower in the thread.
Bank/Stake System

Starting Bank: 1000 EUR
Low stakes (1,2,3) -> 10-30 EUR
Medium stakes (4,5,6) -> 40-60 EUR
High stakes (7,8,9) -> 70-90 EUR
Max bet (10) -> 100 EUR

Current Bank (after 9 bets): 839.5 EUR

The system I use for managing stakes I would call as high risk/gain banking system. In traditional system your max bet should not pass maybe 2% of the bank. But with such restrictions you need a big starting bank. In my system max bet is 10% of the bank. So let's work with the bank of 1000 EUR for easy mathematics. Mostly my singles & doubles will be high stakes with low stakes used for multiples and days with limited betting options.
Bet History
1. WIN JONG UTRECHT – EMMEN over 2.5 @ 1,65      Staked: 30      Result +49,5       +19,5
2. LOSE DOUBLE -> MAN UTD to WIN, SPORTING to SCORE @ 2,6775       Staked: 80      Result -80
3. WIN Real Madrid - Dortmund -> both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 1,90 - Staked: 90      Result +171         +81
4. WIN Shaktjor - Man City -> both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 2,10 - Staked: 90      Result +189         +99
5. LOSE Multiple: above two tips + Porto & Leipzig win @ 7,82 - Staked: 30      Result -30
6. LOSE Europa League Multiple @ 11,3892 - Staked: 10        Result  -10
7. Dutch 2nd League goals Double @ 2.5575      Staked: 50      Result -50
8. LOSE Telstar – Emmen both to score over 2.5 @ 1.75       Staked: 90      Result -90
9. LOSE Double @ 3,04 Staked: 100      Result -100

If you have some questions or suggestions feel free to comment. Especially if you have some good tip or difference of opinion regarding my picks. Always remember not to bet what you cannot lose and approach your betting as investment.

[Trofo]

There is not a lot of value tips today so I will start with just one game from Dutch 2nd league.

WIN JONG UTRECHT – EMMEN over 2.5 @ 1,65 --> small stake

Emmen is much better team to take for over games when traveling because they concede much more goals then on home pitch (average of 3.4 goals per game). Jong Utrecht has one of the worst defenses of the league, conceding over 2 goals per game, and scoring usually at least 1 on their home pitch. Both last season's clashes, which are the only ones in the history of these teams, finished with a over score (3:1 and 3:0).

Edit: The game finished 1:2. I actually played this one for about 60 EUR but I will count it as a bet of 30 EUR because I wrote small stake yesterday and didn't have staking table ready at the moment.

[Trofo]

Today is first day of champions league matches and I have selected following double as most value for today bet:
Man United - CSKA -> Man United to win @1.53
Barcelona - Sporting -> Sporting to score @1.75
LOSE High stake (80) for this double @ 2.6775

Man United is a much better team and they need at least 1 point from this game to secure 1.spot in the group. I believe they will play for win. Add to that suspensions for 2 important first team players at CSKA (Bibras Natkho, Pontus Wernbloom) and earlier injured A. Berezucki, Ščenikov, Milanov. I see this game as 2:0 win for home side.

Barcelona has already secured 1. spot in the group and will probably rest some players. Bear in mind that Mascherano, Nelson Semedo & Umtiti are injured, so if Pique or Alba get rested last line for Barcelona will be quite different (not used to playing together). I believe bookies are underestimating Sporting and that they are able to at least score one goal today.

Some bonus tips I considered & discarded from serious bet (still played but only for peanuts, will not enter in above history)
Bayern-PSG Both to score & over 2.5
At. Madrid to score
Olympiacos - Juve Draw

Edit: Lose since the sporting didn't managed to score. Too bad, Bas Dost had 2 great chances should have at least converted first. To make it more interesting Sporting actually scored but it was own goal.

[kryptqnick]

What is not very nice about your tips is that they are not general. You just tell people the teams on which you put money in specific matches and explain why you choose to bet this way. And yet, as people are interested in various kinds of sports, I guess it would be great if you could provide some strategy you use or name the main values. For instance, is sports betting more about knowing the sports (teams and their previous games) or betting (operating money well, having trading experience etc.)? How much time should one spend on sports to be successful at betting? Is it more about skills or luck?

[badjacks99]

What is not very nice about your tips is that they are not general. You just tell people the teams on which you put money in specific matches and explain why you choose to bet this way. And yet, as people are interested in various kinds of sports, I guess it would be great if you could provide some strategy you use or name the main values. For instance, is sports betting more about knowing the sports (teams and their previous games) or betting (operating money well, having trading experience etc.)? How much time should one spend on sports to be successful at betting? Is it more about skills or luck?

These are questions that there’s really no proper answer. So many things going to predicting the outcome of sports but it’s impossible to whittle it down to a science.Firstly, I would say you’d have to follow pretty in-depth on a certain sport to be able to bet it, or you should be.  When it comes down to how much time you spend on each game, we should spend as much time doing research as you possibly can. To be frank, you could have A betting angle that hasn’t lost in years, lose all of a sudden.  There so much variance in professional sports that even the best of the best can still lose. Study or matches, history of the games and use proper bankroll management and you should be fine.

[Trofo]

What is not very nice about your tips is that they are not general. You just tell people the teams on which you put money in specific matches and explain why you choose to bet this way. And yet, as people are interested in various kinds of sports, I guess it would be great if you could provide some strategy you use or name the main values. For instance, is sports betting more about knowing the sports (teams and their previous games) or betting (operating money well, having trading experience etc.)? How much time should one spend on sports to be successful at betting? Is it more about skills or luck?

These are questions that there’s really no proper answer. So many things going to predicting the outcome of sports but it’s impossible to whittle it down to a science.Firstly, I would say you’d have to follow pretty in-depth on a certain sport to be able to bet it, or you should be.  When it comes down to how much time you spend on each game, we should spend as much time doing research as you possibly can. To be frank, you could have A betting angle that hasn’t lost in years, lose all of a sudden.  There so much variance in professional sports that even the best of the best can still lose. Study or matches, history of the games and use proper bankroll management and you should be fine.

Thank you for your comment to previous post. It is mostly in line with what I think regarding sports betting. I can only add that I have been doing this for more than 10 years and most important is to have discipline. There will be bad and good patches but in the end all that matter is final balance. I have finished only one of that 10 years with a loss and it was around 500 EUR. Usually I end the year with a profit of about 1000-2000 EUR. I also had one exceptional year near the begging when I finished with profit of more than 6000 EUR. My way of betting should be considered as high risk investment. There is no big winnings but there are hopefully no big looses and it is more interesting to watch the games.

Also i think there has been some misunderstanding with the name of the topic which could be understood as general tips about sport betting while I intended it as specific day to day picks. Maybe better word could be selection, I will think about changing it.

[Trofo]

Today in Champions League there is a lot of obvious choices which should all pass like Napoli, Porto & Leipzig to win. Porto & Leipzig even have to chase goal difference and their opposition will rest some key players. I will instead focus mainly on 2 games I think will be high scoring.

Real - Dortmund -> I see this game as high scoring one where Dortumund should score at least once. Real will be 2nd in this group and Dortmund needs points in order to progress to Europa League. Judging from press conferences I believe Dortmund will play with best team possible while Real will make some changes especially in the defense.

Shaktjor - City -> Shaktjor needs at least a point to be sure of progressing in the next round (expected win for Napoli) and will give their best to play good match. City will progress as 1st team from this group and will rest some key players due to Manchester derby this weekend. But still any 11 fielded by pep are capable of scoring at least a goal or two and from some unconfirmed info Jesus and Sane are expected from beginning. They will however for sure miss De Bruyne and Silva.

For both games I will play both teams to score and over 2.5 goals combined into single odd. I am not sure if you are able to play this at your chosen bookmaker. Maybe you will have to settle for one of those if you decide to follow.

WIN Real Madrid - Dortmund -> both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 1,90 - High Stake (90)
WIN Shaktjor - Man City -> both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 2,10 - High Stake (90)
LOSE Multiple: above two tips + Porto & Leipzig win @ 7,82 - Low Stake (30)

Edit: Yesterday there was a bit of good luck (penalty for city after 90 min) and a bit of bad luck Leipzig seemed to me as much better team but lost (even had two goals disallowed). I read a report not watched the games so I will assume it was all good decisions by ref. I watched Real.

[Trofo]

Today we have a lot of games in Europa League, some of them look like they could have a few goals in them. First of all i have to warn you that I am terrible at predicting result in Europa League and you should probably play opposite from my predictions. I should skip them altogether but I like to bet at least a little to make for more interesting evening.

I will not even write analyses today, sorry for that but stake is anyhow minimal and i expect to lose this one. Normal service with analyses will be continued tomorrow, if there is some good game.

Austria Wien - AEK Atena x2 @ 1,45
CZBeograd - 1.FC Köln 1x @ 1,35
HNK Rijeka - AC Milano over 2,5 @ 1,85
ZWaregem - SS Lazio both to score & over 2,5 @ 1,85
RSociedad - ZenitSP over 2,5 @ 1,70
Lose Combo odds @ 11,3892 for minimal stake (10)

[Trofo]

For today I have chosen one double from Dutch 2nd league for medium stake. These bets are mostly based on statistic.

GA EAGLES – JONG PSV over 2.5 @ 1.65
TELSTAR – EMMEN over 2.5 @ 1.55
Lose Double @ 2.5575 for medium stake (50)

Lose TELSTAR – EMMEN both to score over 2.5 @ 1.75 for high stake(90)


Eagles vs. Jong PSV. Both teams have an average of 3 goals per match during last 5 gameweeks.

Telstar vs. Emmen - this match has great value in my opinion because according to statistic expected goals for this match are 3.75 which is very high, and I expect the odds to go down during day. I will play this one for high stake as well.

Edit: Bad day, with missed penalty early in the game let's hope for better luck tomorow.

[Trofo]

I am in bit of rush today so I will update OP later.

For today I will play following double:

Real Madrid - Sevilla -- both to score & over 2.5 @1,9
West Ham - Chelsea -- Chelsea to win @ 1,6
Lose Double @3,04 for max stake(100)

Real is not as good as usual in the league this season, and they have a tendency for high scoring games. I often play that their opponent will score and it is usually  a good bet even when facing much weaker opposition than Sevilla. Sevilla started slowly this season but they are in good form now and I expect they will try to score few goals today and just defend.

West Ham has shown some changes for the better in recent game weeks but today they will face pragmatic Chelsea team and I expect another minimal win for Conte men. This will be a tough game but I see Chelsea prevailing at the end of it.

[hitrawal91]

The way you explain why did you bet on the particular team is really unique and good one to follow, and people really like to bet on honest and experienced guy team who is watching the game closely from past ten years. Hope the strategy need not to be changed if there is no major changes in the sport after few years. Would like to know more tips if you can provide on cricket as the cricket is been played and liked the most here in our country.

[Trofo]

The way you explain why did you bet on the particular team is really unique and good one to follow, and people really like to bet on honest and experienced guy team who is watching the game closely from past ten years. Hope the strategy need not to be changed if there is no major changes in the sport after few years. Would like to know more tips if you can provide on cricket as the cricket is been played and liked the most here in our country.

Glad you like my tips even though they have not been successful these last few days. Sorry I cant help you with the cricket. I have never watched the game in my life. Same goes for Baseball and American football (Ragby)

I watch only football and tennis so that are the sports I am betting on. Here and there I will maybe add few tips from handball, waterpolo and hockey which are the sports I occasionally follow on big competitions.

[Raegorl]

How much experience do you have betting on tennis? With the 2018 season/Australian Open approaching i'm thinking of trying my hand at gambling a bit, since i already watch most of the matches anyways! Any tips for me?

[Trofo]

How much experience do you have betting on tennis? With the 2018 season/Australian Open approaching i'm thinking of trying my hand at gambling a bit, since i already watch most of the matches anyways! Any tips for me?

Quite a lot. I am usually choosing handicaps on the tennis matches because odds for win are really small. I have best results on ATP 1000 & ATP 500 tournaments. That extra set or two on grand slams is really a problem when playing handicaps. The player will often just let go of set after losing a serve or two and concentrate for next set. I will for sure put some tips when draw is made.

General advice is to be extra careful in first rounds of Australian open. It is first big tournament of the year and we have yet to see what form will the players bring to the pitch. Not to mention there is a lot of forfeits because lower ranked (50-150) injured players come to take hefty check for participation.

[Trofo]

Not going so well at the end of this year for me. I am playing few good matches today and if they don't go as planned I will probably take a little holiday until year's end in order not to cut into my profits too much.

Southampton - Arsenal -- Arsenal to win @2,0 for high bet (90)
Liverpool - Everton -- Both to score & over 2,5 @2,15 for high bet (80)
Betis Sevilla - At. Madrid -- At. Madrid to win @1,85 for max bet (100)
Hannover - Hoffenheim -- Hoffenheim to win @2,40 for high bet (70)
Combo @ 11,137 all above only Hoffenheim x2 @1,40 for medium bet(50)

Arsenal is currently in really good form and I am expecting them to be extra motivated after loosing from united last week. In that game Arsenal made lots of good  chances and only heroics from De Gea kept them from scoring more than 1 goal. Arsenal rested all their players in Champions league during week so they will field their best 11 today.

Livrpool is currently on high scoring run. They are playing for a goal more and I am expecting them to do the same today. This is a derby match but i think liverpool only has one gameplan and that is to attack. Hopefully everton has enough quality score at least once today.

Betis Sevilla is going trough rough patch while At. Madrid is playing better and better every week. They are out of champions league due to bad results vs. Quarabag and now they have whole focus on league. They have to win games like this in order to stay in title race.

Hoffenheim had some problems playing on multiple fronts but now when they are out of the Europe i am expecting them to perform much better in the league. They started last week with big win over RB Leipzig and they have to continue today. For combo I chose x2 for extra security.

[betMaster]

•Manchester United vs Manchester City: under 3.5 @1.33
Mourinho priority is defense in this match especially that he want to break a record of number of undefeated matchs in the league.
Manchester City does not want to risk loosing so they will play carefully.

•Liverpool vs Everton: Liverpool will win with 2 goals or more @1.40
Liverpool are in great form this period after a huge win 7-0 in the Champions league against Spartak Moscow. I believe they will continue their winning streak in this derby since Everton is weak this season.

•Villareal vs Barcelona: under 3.5 @1.59
It's obviously a tactical match as usual. Barcelona will look for the win without conceding goals. Villareal will wait for Barcelona and they will try to score on counters.

The total odd of these 3 matches is 2.96