Some takes on things

[ryantw]

A July 7th, 2013 Take On Things

I have lurked on bitcointalk for a while now and recently made an account to post a couple things in the Securities section related to some things I saw being mismanaged. I have been recently viewing the Speculation section of this forum and decided to start a thread due to some of the stuff I have been reading. A lot of threads have been bearish, thinking that bitcoin is going to fall drastically. I don't know why it seems that the Speculation section is so bearish, maybe people can't afford to buy bitcoin at its current price so they want it to drop, they are pessimistic people in general, they just want something to fail, they like negative press or they are actually correct in their bearish predictions. The psychological aspect of the Speculation forum is a whole different topic



Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now. There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

Since I believe it is impossible to predict what the price will be in the future, I will just deal with what I am seeing now, as of July 7th, 2013. I replied the same thing in another thread, but decided to make a new thread afterwards. The walls and price is based on Mt.Gox. Gox is the main price point for bitcoin and other exchanges trade based on Gox's price. Trades on other exchanges coincide with Gox's trading almost in perfect sync. Until another market has more volume than Gox, it will be the price point for a while.


The current price stunting

Are for the current price on July 7th, 2013: it is being stunted. Someone is keeping the price low and buying cheap coins through placing bids lower than their ask walls. They are hoarding cheap coins by getting people to sell into their bids and buying coins lower than their ask walls. They are pretty blatant about it, even placing the walls at $1 intervals. If they decide they have reached their desired amount of coins and then lift their ask walls, bitcoin will rise, which is what they want after buying lots of cheap bitcoins.

Whomever is doing this is pretty clever as they are also doing a couple of other things to stunt the price. If you think the price is going to drop, it will not. The ask walls are keeping the price low. This is actually the perfect time to do something like this. A lot of money has left Mt.Gox lately, so it isn't as difficult as it was a month ago to manipulate the price.



Hiatus effect

The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.

Surprisingly, and good for Bitcoin bulls, Gox was right on time with their 2 week hiatus. After 2 weeks the hiatus is gone and people can withdrawal money. The hiatus effect is interesting for a couple of reasons. Gox will never release the figures, but it would be interesting to know how much money was immediately withdrawn after the hiatus was lifted. Another very interesting figure to know would be how much money is going to come into the Gox now that the hiatus is gone and confidence in Gox is increased. The most interesting figure would be how much money is going to enter as well as leave MtGox after this holiday weekend. Gox lifted their hiatus on July 4th, a Thursday and holiday. Banks in the US were closed on Thursday, open on Friday, then closed over the weekend. Getting a wire in before this weekend may have been tough, and risky since the hiatus was just lifted the previous day.

So right now the amount of USD in Gox is most likely much lower than it was a month ago. This makes it easy for someone to keep the price low, but not too low.



Invested infrastructure in Bitcoin

For many who think Bitcoin can drop below $20, I encourage you to consider the actual amount of money that has been invested in companies surrounding  bitcoin. Millions have been invested in startups such as Bitpay, Coinbase and others. The amount of money that has taken an invested interest in Bitcoin would be very interested in not seeing it drop too low. $5 million was invested in Bitpay alone. There are much larger pockets backing Bitcoin than in 2011 and a price below $50 would certainly see some large buys.



My opinion

Once the dust settles on the hiatus and people feel confident enough to deposit USD into Gox, expect the price to rise. Deposits=buys. Gox isn't a bank, depositing money means you will at some point buy Bitcoin. People worried about not being able to withdrawal their USD may slowly regain confidence, redeposit and buy once again. I have purchased quite a few bitcoin myself this past weekend and I believe strongly in the price increasing.

[1715560368]

1715560368

[ryantw]

One of the many things I have noticed regarding the stunting tactics.

[edit: removed pic of price slide. too tall of an image. See it in post below]

Ask Walls:

https://i.imgur.com/2peeKtv.jpg

[dazzle]

One of the many things I have noticed regarding the stunting tactics. This "perceived slide" actually worked a few days ago and cause the price to quickly plummet.

https://i.imgur.com/IU9hU1y.jpg




Ask Walls:

https://i.imgur.com/2peeKtv.jpg

What are the numbers before the prices? I dont get it

[knight22]

What are the numbers before the prices? I dont get it

amount of bitcoin transacted

[derpinheimer]

Absolute nonense, we've always had stupid small bid AND asks close together, which to stupid people, could simulate a sudden rise or drop in price.

Perceived slide 

Anyone who knows anything about bitcoin prices doesnt use bitstamp for anything but as a useful history check anyway.

[MoreFun]

Anyone who knows anything about bitcoin prices doesnt use bitstamp for anything but as a useful history check anyway.

You should explain this a little bit in details... anywhy what has bitstamp with this thread?

[readonlyaccess]

Anyone who knows anything about bitcoin prices doesnt use bitstamp for anything but as a useful history check anyway.

You should explain this a little bit in details... anywhy what has bitstamp with this thread?

I was just thinking the samething!

[Komodorpudel]

I have lurked on bitcointalk for a while now and recently made an account to post a couple things in the Securities section related to some things I saw being mismanaged. I have been recently viewing the Speculation section of this forum and decided to start a thread due to some of the stuff I have been reading. A lot of threads have been bearish, thinking that bitcoin is going to fall drastically. I don't know why it seems that the Speculation section is so bearish, maybe people can't afford to buy bitcoin at its current price so they want it to drop, they are pessimistic people in general, they just want something to fail, they like negative press or they are actually correct in their bearish predictions. The psychological aspect of the Speculation forum is a whole different topic



Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now. There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

Since I believe it is impossible to predict what the price will be in the future, I will just deal with what I am seeing now, as of July 7th, 2013. I replied the same thing in another thread, but decided to make a new thread afterwards. The walls and price is based on Mt.Gox. Gox is the main price point for bitcoin and other exchanges trade based on Gox's price. Trades on other exchanges coincide with Gox's trading almost in perfect sync. Until another market has more volume than Gox, it will be the price point for a while.


The current price stunting

Are for the current price on July 7th, 2013: it is being stunted. Someone is keeping the price low and buying cheap coins through placing bids lower than their ask walls. They are hoarding cheap coins by getting people to sell into their bids and buying coins lower than their ask walls. They are pretty blatant about it, even placing the walls at $1 intervals. If they decide they have reached their desired amount of coins and then lift their ask walls, bitcoin will rise, which is what they want after buying lots of cheap bitcoins.

Whomever is doing this is pretty clever as they are also doing a couple of other things to stunt the price. If you think the price is going to drop, it will not. The ask walls are keeping the price low. This is actually the perfect time to do something like this. A lot of money has left Mt.Gox lately, so it isn't as difficult as it was a month ago to manipulate the price.



Hiatus effect

The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.

Surprisingly, and good for Bitcoin bulls, Gox was right on time with their 2 week hiatus. After 2 weeks the hiatus is gone and people can withdrawal money. The hiatus effect is interesting for a couple of reasons. Gox will never release the figures, but it would be interesting to know how much money was immediately withdrawn after the hiatus was lifted. Another very interesting figure to know would be how much money is going to come into the Gox now that the hiatus is gone and confidence in Gox is increased. The most interesting figure would be how much money is going to enter as well as leave MtGox after this holiday weekend. Gox lifted their hiatus on July 4th, a Thursday and holiday. Banks in the US were closed on Thursday, open on Friday, then closed over the weekend. Getting a wire in before this weekend may have been tough, and risky since the hiatus was just lifted the previous day.

So right now the amount of USD in Gox is most likely much lower than it was a month ago. This makes it easy for someone to keep the price low, but not too low.



Invested infrastructure in Bitcoin

For many who think Bitcoin can drop below $20, I encourage you to consider the actual amount of money that has been invested in companies surrounding  bitcoin. Millions have been invested in startups such as Bitpay, Coinbase and others. The amount of money that has taken an invested interest in Bitcoin would be very interested in not seeing it drop too low. $5 million was invested in Bitpay alone. There are much larger pockets backing Bitcoin than in 2011 and a price below $50 would certainly see some large buys.



My opinion

Once the dust settles on the hiatus and people feel confident enough to deposit USD into Gox, expect the price to rise. Deposits=buys. Gox isn't a bank, depositing money means you will at some point buy Bitcoin. People worried about not being able to withdrawal their USD may slowly regain confidence, redeposit and buy once again. I have purchased quite a few bitcoin myself this past weekend and I believe strongly in the price increasing.

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you

[ryantw]

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you

Thanks. Appreciate it.

It seems that the price is increasing. Monster wall at $80. These past 2 weeks have been another ride. Past three days have been very interesting to watch. Bitcoin has matured a lot in the past three months.

[TooCasual]

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you

Thanks. Appreciate it.

It seems that the price is increasing. Monster wall at $80. These past 2 weeks have been another ride. Past three days have been very interesting to watch. Bitcoin has matured a lot in the past three months.

The wall at 80usd is a good value for a large investor...  At least their buy isn't chasing up the price.

Always depends on your view point...

TC

[Dumbastronaut]

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you

These past 2 weeks have been another ride. Past three days have been very interesting to watch. Bitcoin has matured a lot in the past three months.

It has indeed

[ryantw]

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you

Thanks. Appreciate it.

It seems that the price is increasing. Monster wall at $80. These past 2 weeks have been another ride. Past three days have been very interesting to watch. Bitcoin has matured a lot in the past three months.

The wall at 80usd is a good value for a large investor...  At least their buy isn't chasing up the price.

Always depends on your view point...

TC

I agree. Too quick of a rise is not good. It is a good thing that the $80 wall is there, it will at least allow things to slowly progress but not too fast. It also encourages redeposits into gox. I would be very interested to know the source of that $80 wall and their intentions for placing it.

[alyssa85]

Hiatus effect

The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.

Don't forget the effect of Satoshi Dice closing to American players starting May 16th. If you look at the charts, this was when there was a step change ftom about $125 to $115.

I think the gambling sites really supported the BTC price because people had to buy BTC to play. Whereas sites like Bitpay suppress the BTC price because for every transaction they are having to sell BTC and buy dollars to pay the retailer.

[zhangweiwu]

OP just look intelligent. You have to close the logic loops to be really intelligent.

Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now.

The people you are accusing pessimistic on this forum talks about what is going to happening IN a month: that's exactly what speculators do. You don't blame speculation on speculation forum, that would be a waste of bullet. Very few on the forum hold pessimistic view on the long run.

There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

The difficulty in prediction doesn't support you accusation that the forum folks are pessimistic. Difficulty in prediction can result in optimistics as well.

Observe, and you will find speculators often hold opposite view to the investors, and apparently you are the investor type. Investors often buy high and sell low. Speculators try to position themselves to take advantage from that. You noticed speculation forum is different, that is exactly the way it should be.

Let me elaborate / repeat this: "When investors are considering if something worth the value in the long run, speculators are considering how many investors are thinking this way and position themselves accordingly. You have a typical investor thinking pattern, you just landed in the wrong forum."

You talked about external factors. Only a tiny fragment of bitcoin is being traded on the market, and these sets the price, thus, although you are correct that the bitcoin economy and future doesn't rest on this trivial market sentiment, but the short-term price rely more on market sentiments than these external and environmental factors. As being said, in a bearish market good news only slows the fall.

From the view of a speculator, your post indicate you are in the denial phase, that is an indicator to them that the bottom is not there yet, and it is going to fall further, and whoever shorting should be more patient. And he could be right, just as right as you are. How could people be correct on opposite view? That's because speculator rarely look beyond 3 month and investors never only within 3 months.

A lot of the speculators are really faithful in bitcoin in the long run, these are speculator-investors, and our forum is, perhaps mostly, made up with such people. Let me show you something. Currently the "blatant" people bidding at $50 are shorting. Once bitcoin breaks through the $80 wall without hitting $50, many of these speculators (including me) will immediately reposition and buy in around $81, accpeting the loss without hesitation. They would buy an alarm clock to wake up in the mid of night to  reposition themselves as soon as this happens, if they don't already have a trading bot to do the same. To "them" it is just a lose in a bet, and it may even be fun and it is how the game be, they don't drop to their knees and cry. I for example don't feel blatant at all.

[marvinrouge]

OP just look intelligent. You have to close the logic loops to be really intelligent.

Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now.

The people you are accusing pessimistic on this forum talks about what is going to happening IN a month: that's exactly what speculators do. You don't blame speculation on speculation forum, that would be a waste of bullet. Very few on the forum hold pessimistic view on the long run.

There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

The difficulty in prediction doesn't support you accusation that the forum folks are pessimistic. Difficulty in prediction can result in optimistics as well.

Observe, and you will find speculators often hold opposite view to the investors, and apparently you are the investor type. Investors often buy high and sell low. Speculators try to position themselves to take advantage from that. You noticed speculation forum is different, that is exactly the way it should be.

Let me elaborate / repeat this: "When investors are considering if something worth the value in the long run, speculators are considering how many investors are thinking this way and position themselves accordingly. You have a typical investor thinking pattern, you just landed in the wrong forum."

You talked about external factors. Only a tiny fragment of bitcoin is being traded on the market, and these sets the price, thus, although you are correct that the bitcoin economy and future doesn't rest on this trivial market sentiment, but the short-term price rely more on market sentiments than these external and environmental factors. As being said, in a bearish market good news only slows the fall.

From the view of a speculator, your post indicate you are in the denial phase, that is an indicator to them that the bottom is not there yet, and it is going to fall further. And he could be right, just as right as you are. How could people be correct on opposite view? That's because speculator rarely look beyond 3 month and investors never only within 3 months.

A lot of the speculators are really faithful in bitcoin in the long run, these are speculator-investors, and our forum is, perhaps mostly, made up with such people. Let me show you something. Currently the "blatant" people bidding at $50 are shorting. Once bitcoin breaks through the $80 wall without hitting $50, many of these speculators (including me) will immediately reposition and buy in around $81, accpeting the loss without hesitation. They would buy an alarm clock to wake up in the mid of night to  reposition themselves as soon as this happens, if they don't already have a trading bot to do the same. To "them" it is just a lose in a bet, and it may even be fun and it is how the game be, they don't drop to their knees and cry. I for example don't feel blatant at all.

nice post Probably the most intelligent post in this thread for a long time

[ryantw]

July 11th, 2013

Price is still being held down with ask walls. Gox took a large USD withdrawal hit this past week. Keeping the price low entices those withdrawals to come back as deposits. The writing is on the wall, in this case walls.

[derpinheimer]

July 11th, 2013

Price is still being held down with ask walls. Gox took a large USD withdrawal hit this past week. Keeping the price low entices those withdrawals to come back as deposits. The writing is on the wall, in this case walls.

Very nice prediction there.

However, I'm really not seeing the ask walls anymore. Most of the asks are now in the form of small-medium chunks of 5-100. I know some of them are from a bigger player splitting them up [Like the 37.25 asks x ~28]

The 2k wall at 90 I'm fairly certain is from the same guy that had 5k at 80, and then pulled 2k before the major rally came thru.

Interesting point on lower price -> less withdrawals. It makes sense. 

[zhangweiwu]

July 11th, 2013
 Gox took a large USD withdrawal hit this past week.

Interesting point on lower price -> less withdrawals. It makes sense.  

They could be the arbitrageurs. Consider mtgox price tops the world's market, there is an incentive for people to sell in that market and at the mean time spend the same money to buy more bitoins in their home market at cheaper price, and wait for the withdraw comes back to their home market in the following days/weeks.

[ryantw]

Coinbase Instant Bitcoin

http://blog.coinbase.com/post/55203204550/instant-bitcoin-purchases-at-coinbase

One of the unforeseen industry changes: The new Coinbase instant Bitcoin capability really makes things interesting. This should definitely raise the price, but could also cause rapid price fluctuations. It is now becoming a bit easier for people to instantly get Bitcoin at their computer without running to a physical location. Expect some nice upswings in Bitcoin price in the next 24 hours.

Coinbase will now see a major rise in signups, which helps Bitcoin tremendously. I have been using their service for a long time and love it. It takes 30 days for someone to get to "Level 2" which allows instant available bitcoin. By end of august a lot of new users will be buying bitcoins for instant use. Not having to wait 4 business days to receive Bitcoin is a trigger to buy. Expect price fluctuations to increase a lot by end of august with an upwards trend. I have yet to see how well Coinbase will handle buying and selling in rapid succession, I'll test it out though and post an update.

The rapid evolution of Bitcoin is a lot of fun to watch. It is definitely maturing.

[chsados]

Coinbase Instant Bitcoin

One of the unforeseen industry changes: The new Coinbase instant Bitcoin capability really makes things interesting. This should definitely raise the price, but could also cause rapid price fluctuations. It is now becoming a bit easier for people to instantly get Bitcoin at their computer without running to a physical location. Expect some nice upswings in Bitcoin price in the next 24 hours.

Coinbase will now see a major rise in signups, which helps Bitcoin tremendously. I have been using their service for a long time and love it. It takes 30 days for someone to get to "Level 2" which allows instant available bitcoin. By end of august a lot of new users will be buying bitcoins for instant use. Not having to wait 4 business days to receive Bitcoin is a trigger to buy. Expect price fluctuations to increase a lot by end of august with an upwards trend. I have yet to see how well Coinbase will handle buying and selling in rapid succession, I'll test it out though and post an update.

The rapid evolution of Bitcoin is a lot of fun to watch. It is definitely maturing.

Huh, coinbase is instant now?