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Poll
Question: how low will it go, before it starts to go up again?
15$
14$
13$
12$
<10$

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adamstgBit
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July 01, 2011, 11:23:03 PM
 #1

why is this happening?
how low will it go?
will it ever bounce back to 30$?

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raresaturn
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July 01, 2011, 11:25:15 PM
 #2

was it ever $30?  Huh

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July 01, 2011, 11:26:14 PM
 #3

BUY and hold (or use) if the price goes down BUY some more and hold (or use)
BitcoinPorn
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July 01, 2011, 11:29:56 PM
 #4

I am waiting for a transfer to an account so I can get to Gox Hilling already Sad

adamstgBit
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July 01, 2011, 11:33:48 PM
 #5

was it ever $30?  Huh

yes, 08 JUN 2011 it was 32

TraderTimm
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July 01, 2011, 11:41:53 PM
 #6

We really need a "OMG MARKET DOING <THIS>" sub-forum. These threads are so silly. You nervous nellies Smiley

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July 01, 2011, 11:51:12 PM
 #7

The jig is up.
Stephen Gornick
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July 02, 2011, 12:03:03 AM
 #8

Are you concerned about the weekend dip?

The weekend dip is a pattern where:
- if, by Wednesday evening / Thursday morning the high for the most recent seven days is LOWER than the high for the previous seven days, then what happens more often than not is that the price will slide into the weekend.  

Taking advantage of that means selling on Wednesday evening / Thursday morning and then buying those bitcoins back before the following week's buying begins on Sunday afternoon.

During the March / April time frame applying this strategy resulted in 10% or more gains each week.

The explanation for this might be that because bank transactions only cause funds to be available on business days, there is a smaller inflow of funds during the weekend.  At the same time, withdrawals (e.g., Dwolla) are allowed 24x7.

Thus there is an imbalance between miners cashing out seven days a week and investors / speculators / buyers for any other reason only adding funds during weekdays.

The last time this pattern was occurred, two weeks ago, the window was short, and the price had recovered by Saturday.  Of course, then that Sunday was the Mt. Gox security breach so that weekend was not likely typical.

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July 02, 2011, 12:18:50 AM
 #9

The jig is up.

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Vandroiy
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July 02, 2011, 12:37:43 AM
 #10

The poll is not reasonable since no up-trend height or time frame is given. Not that I have a crystal ball, but with this type of question, I might not be able to answer even if I had. *shrugs* Generally, my indicators say down on a time scale of weeks. But they're pretty fuzzy, and you know how unpredictable Bitcoin is. I think it's likely that we'll see sub-$12 prices though.

The really interesting question is shunned on these forums. "If we face a crash 'bust' phase, will the image of Bitcoin be hurt enough to endanger reaching critical mass, possibly causing catastrophic failure?"

I know, nobody wants me to ask that question here. Simply forget I did It's the one single thing I really care about though, since the answer determines whether I ever buy in again.
wolftaur
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July 02, 2011, 12:42:31 AM
 #11

The really interesting question is shunned on these forums. "If we face a crash 'bust' phase, will the image of Bitcoin be hurt enough to endanger reaching critical mass, possibly causing catastrophic failure?"

Nah, I don't think that has to be true. There have been many, many, many times where the perceived value of something has changed. Just because something was viewed as more valuable for a while, and then less valuable for a while, does not mean it might not again be perceived as more valuable when things change again. Ask almost any company that's been around a while and has publicly traded stock. Or ask the oil industry. Or ask about any of a number of currencies compared to others.

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Vandroiy
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July 02, 2011, 12:57:33 AM
 #12

Nah, I don't think that has to be true. There have been many, many, many times where the perceived value of something has changed. Just because something was viewed as more valuable for a while, and then less valuable for a while, does not mean it might not again be perceived as more valuable when things change again. Ask almost any company that's been around a while and has publicly traded stock. Or ask the oil industry. Or ask about any of a number of currencies compared to others.

A speculator doesn't care whether something doesn't have to be true... the important question is, can you give a probability? Is there one you would bet on? People are implicitly betting by holding BTC, but as I see it, quite a few of them are overconfident. I want to know what our real chances are.

Just as a side note, I usually mean things as I say them. I didn't mean to imply "ZOMG BTC IS DOOMED TO CRASH 100%", or imply anything at that -- I'm really just wondering what the chances of reaching critical mass are after a crash or crash-like event.
zby
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July 02, 2011, 01:00:53 AM
 #13

All the recent failures in the bitcoin ecosystem make a very bad impression.  It does not matter much that they are not related to the core bitcoin protocol but rather the external part of the system - I don't think bitcoin will *spread* until the technology is more reliable and usable.  Additionally a killer app different from Silk Road is needed (my own bet here would be the less known script part of the bitcoin protocol - this is really great stuff opening many new possibilities).  The 7K daily new bitcoins create too much pressure on the market - at the current price that is $100K of daily expansion.
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July 02, 2011, 01:04:05 AM
 #14

Actually, I'm quite happy with where we are BTC-rate wise. It isn't pushing stratospheric levels, difficulty has a chance of not being 50% the next adjustment, and some of the 'OMG BUBBLE' hype has died down. And we're talking what, maybe two dollars and change off of the pre-technical-difficulty-crash of 17.51 ... I'd say that is a testament to the strength of bitcoin.

I don't mind 'weak hands' cashing out here. If you aren't in it for the longer term, I really don't know why you bothered in the first place. And I'm not talking about speculation, either. I mean actual commitment to the system overall.

I'll be here long after the fair-weather-friends are gone. How about you?

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killer2021
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July 02, 2011, 01:21:03 AM
 #15

no worries this happens every weekend. Everyone selling to buy fireworks and booze for monday Cheesy

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adamstgBit
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July 02, 2011, 01:28:56 AM
 #16

Quote
I'll be here long after the fair-weather-friends are gone. How about you?

I'm in it for the long term

i bought a few BTC back in the old days when paypal was bitcoin's pal
so it wasn't a big investment. but its fun to see the market go up rather then down  Tongue

adamstgBit
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July 02, 2011, 01:30:30 AM
 #17

its on the rise again! LOL i love the bitcoins

dood001
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July 02, 2011, 01:35:53 AM
 #18

no worries this happens every weekend. Everyone selling to buy fireworks and booze for monday Cheesy

?
digigalt
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July 02, 2011, 01:44:11 AM
 #19

no worries this happens every weekend. Everyone selling to buy fireworks and booze for monday Cheesy

?

Seriously? It's a 4th of July joke.

Anyway, the price is hardly crashing.
adamstgBit
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July 02, 2011, 01:46:00 AM
 #20

no worries this happens every weekend. Everyone selling to buy fireworks and booze for monday Cheesy
?

i think he means everyone is selling so they can afford to have a .... bitcoin minning LAN party with fireworks and booze??? lol i dont know

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