End of 2013 Network Hash Prediction for Bitcoin

[repiv]

I've seen my share of predictions on network hash.  However, many of the predictions I have seen are based on gut feeling, guesses, and past performance.  Which in a sense are all valid since we probably have a better shot in predicting the weather than the hash-rate for a digital currency.

One of the better predictions I have seen are based on a combination of mainstream news stories, company announcements, and chip fabrication/delivery.  This has brought me to the prediction of a 750 TH/s by the end of the year.

One of the more concrete estimates based on facts was the identification of the blocks and the wallet address of some of these companies who are selling chips.  Then using the BTC transfer amount, the cost per chip, and date of the order combined with the lead time and estimate fabrication time to come up with some network hash numbers that are actually based on something.

So with whatever means you have come up with your network hash prediction, I like to hear what some of you think about its future.

[zamazama]

low end 500TH ... 800TH more likely.

The price bubble burst ... so much $$$ going into hardware .. can't help but think it will be the next to pop.

[bitcoinator]

So will we see a lot of less efficient ASICs being thrown away by January?

[Korbman]

It honestly has a lot to do with how many orders the various ASIC companies have and how quickly they can a) catch up on backlog, and b) fill new orders quickly.

My prediction goes well above 1000TH/s, but this takes into account:
--BFL catching up on all backlog (thousands of orders) and shipping in a timely manner (not this day-at-a-time nonsense).
--Avalon catching up on Batch 2 and 3, as well as disclosing any future plans.
--KnCMiner developing and shipping according to their schedule.
--BitFury (and other hardware developers) receive their chips (either Avalon or BFL), boards, and parts so they can complete their devices.
--ASICMiner continues to increase their deployed hardware (including sales) and discloses future plans as well.
--Other unknown or still in development projects / companies.

There's a lot of factors at play at this point..vastly more than any of us could have imagined just 12 months ago.

[repiv]

It honestly has a lot to do how many orders the various ASIC companies have and how quickly they can a) catch up on backlog, and b) fill new orders quickly.

My prediction goes well above 1000TH/s, but this takes into account:
--BFL catching up on all backlog (thousands of orders) and shipping in a timely manner (not this day-at-a-time nonsense).
--Avalon catching up on Batch 2 and 3, as well as disclosing any future plans.
--KnCMiner developing and shipping according to their schedule.
--BitFury (and other hardware developers) receive their chips (either Avalon or BFL), boards, and parts so they can complete their devices.
--ASICMiner continues to increase their deployed hardware (including sales) and discloses future plans as well.
--Other unknown or still in development projects / companies.

There's a lot of factors at play at this point..vastly more than any of us could have imagined just 12 months ago.

I've considered the "well above 1000 TH/s", but at some point there are lead times in play that even though well over 1000 TH/s have been sold, it takes quite a bit of time for them to come online.  Interesting to note is that in one of my models I have a 50,000 TH/s by end of next year that is based on multiple chip vendors using the 22nm chip fab process.  In many of my models the beyond 100k TH/s we start approaching saturation of the network and diminishing returns on profitability.  Basically it would cost more to harvest a bitcoin when we start hitting the 100k TH/s plus than a return for the co-op miners.

[villanfonsDC]

This is a interesting thought.

[jasperIL2267]

I think it wil be around 300$

[morapick013]

120$

[villanfonsDC]

I've seen my share of predictions on network hash.  However, many of the predictions I have seen are based on gut feeling, guesses, and past performance.  Which in a sense are all valid since we probably have a better shot in predicting the weather than the hash-rate for a digital currency.

One of the better predictions I have seen are based on a combination of mainstream news stories, company announcements, and chip fabrication/delivery.  This has brought me to the prediction of a 750 TH/s by the end of the year.

One of the more concrete estimates based on facts was the identification of the blocks and the wallet address of some of these companies who are selling chips.  Then using the BTC transfer amount, the cost per chip, and date of the order combined with the lead time and estimate fabrication time to come up with some network hash numbers that are actually based on something.

So with whatever means you have come up with your network hash prediction, I like to hear what some of you think about its future.

End of 2013 will see bitcoin prices soar.

[necron40k]

Does anybody think rising hashrate and difficulty push smaller asic miners to other sha256 coins? For example all of these usb miner sticks may be obsolete in 6-12 months so where do those owners turn? Coins like terracoin or ppcoin start looking good since the asics can't scrypt mine LTC.

[repiv]

Does anybody think rising hashrate and difficulty push smaller asic miners to other sha256 coins? For example all of these usb miner sticks may be obsolete in 6-12 months so where do those owners turn? Coins like terracoin or ppcoin start looking good since the asics can't scrypt mine LTC.

I would imagine some would.  The early pioneers of bitcoin mining may soon be irrelevant in the btc mining industry.  As btc mining starts going into a direction of industrialization, the folks who enjoyed mining will look towards other digital currencies.  However, the folks who are more interested in being part of a mainstream digital currency will put their efforts in pushing btc even further mainstream through a variety of means.  As for what is that next coin?  That is difficult to determine.  It would be a combination of the miners involved, community support, etc...