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Author Topic: Why bitcoin indeed "looks" like a Ponzi scheme  (Read 408 times)
Nosk
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December 05, 2017, 02:50:34 PM
 #1

First thing to admit in the bitcoin world nowaday is that bitcoin isn't what it was created to be.
Bitcoin was originally created to be an anonymous currency, with immutable transactions, freeing people from the dictatorship of the banks.
Amongst bitcoin enthusiasts, you can find original bitcoin users, aiming to spend it and use it like a genuine currency. But the majority use bitcoin as a pure speculative product.

The more we hear about bitcoin rising price, the more people want their piece of the cake "ok I want to invest it that too, I want to make a money and it looks like a nice increasing value", adding to the demand. I don't think the price of bitcoin will decrease anytime soon because we are still at the beginning of the curve of adoption, as we can see on, for example, google trend :



My guess is : at each peak, bitcoin earns new users, making the price rise. When they have used all their "potential of speculation", price decrease. We can see on the chart that we have had a huge peak of attention, and coinbase and other trading platforms confirms it, bitcoin has a lot of new users.

It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.

Our "only" chance is that, in the ~2 comings years, huge actors like amazon, facebook, even governments, doesn't obstruct to bitcoin (like china did) but instead start to give bitcoin credits as a proper currency and not as a stock product (like it is happening now).

TL;DR : I really do hope that amazon will one day start to accept bitcoin  Grin
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December 05, 2017, 03:01:38 PM
 #2

Yes we need this to happen, we really need big players like amazon, Facebook, Mac Donald’s, and many more to accept the bitcoin as mode of payment. This will then actually give it the status of “currency”. Now a days it’s been used like normal asset which we see in the stock echangesvand money making financial institutes.

If this continued then it may not be used as currency ever again because people will think that it’s just an asset, and to be honest people don’t bother thinking it that way. If they are getting money out of it then they are more than happy to have it like that way.

So somewhere someday this has to be changed. Bitcoin as whole is currency or at least Mr Satoshi thought so in first place and put his efforts into it. Anyway let’s see what the future will bring to it.

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December 05, 2017, 03:25:02 PM
 #3

So somewhere someday this has to be changed. Bitcoin as whole is currency or at least Mr Satoshi thought so in first place and put his efforts into it. Anyway let’s see what the future will bring to it.

This is precisely my point. Bitcoin's future is completely uncertain without that. I kinda disagree with the HODL reflex (unless you consider bitcoin purely as an investment and you don't keep it too long because at some point people just might lose interest into bitcoin). The best way to make amazon (or so) accept bitcoin is simply to use it as a currency now. Just start using it as a currency, let's make a bitcoin amazon-like store, and then heavy weights will start consider it as a proper money.
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December 05, 2017, 03:32:47 PM
 #4

It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.

It's constantly happening and what we see next is that the price recovers itself, so what would this be? Maybe a sustainable Ponzi scheme that is always recreating itself even stronger? Increasements and decreasements in price are part of Bitcoin's nature, and although there is speculation, there is utility for Bitcoin, so it doesn't seem a Ponzi.

Now that BTC price is hiting awesome numbers I have seen experts trying to blame it, they say Bitcoin is pure speculation and for this reason it can't be considered an investment.

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December 05, 2017, 03:34:06 PM
 #5

The price only really drop when it gets dumped hard (and not much us small players can do about that). There is still use to all this speculation though. More people are talking about it. As they invest in it, they might also try to use it for other transactions. I originally got in for the speculation you mentioned and intended to just hold coins. I ended up using some of those to pay bills and now I even use them to load my mobile.

Companies follow where the money is. Years ago utilities here in my country probably wouldn't accept crypto as payment... well now they do. And this is a fuckin 3rd world country. Only a matter of time before you start seeing larger companies do it.

And once that has already happened, it's less likely interest would suddenly drop down to 0. That's what we are hoping for, for a virtuous cycle to get started.
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December 05, 2017, 03:39:55 PM
 #6

IMO it's not Ponzi at all , bitcoin is a currency that can be use for investment especially like ponzi scheme, they offer unreasonable profit by investing bitcoin.
Some people afraid but if they are dare to take the risk, you will see that bitcoin will make you rich


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December 05, 2017, 03:46:17 PM
 #7

It's constantly happening and what we see next is that the price recovers itself, so what would this be? Maybe a sustainable Ponzi scheme that is always recreating itself even stronger? Increasements and decreasements in price are part of Bitcoin's nature, and although there is speculation, there is utility for Bitcoin, so it doesn't seem a Ponzi.

The price recovers itself because in my opinion we haven't seen a real hard drop yet. Even the "big crash" that happened in 2013 was due to a platform hack, so it joins the category of "heavy weights fluctuations".

As I said, we are still very early in the curve of acceptance. The more users get in, the easier it is for bitcoin to recovers. My fear is : what happens when the curve of acceptance is done ? What happens when nobody new comes into the market ? The price will be unpredictable.

The huge advantages of bitcoin are about being used as a currency (security, transaction immutability, privacy...), otherwise its value lays on nothing (or maybe the physical electricity that miners invested to secure transactions and generate new bitcoins). That's why, if nobody use it as a proper currency, it IS a Ponzi : you invest, sell at higher price, the one who bought does the same, etc etc... until there is nobody left to buy it, no new users.
I didn't say that it was in reality because, as Mometaskers, there is some actors that consider using it as money, but we need heavy weights AND user support. HODLing will become dumb at some point.

IMO it's not Ponzi at all , bitcoin is a currency that can be use for investment especially like ponzi scheme, they offer unreasonable profit by investing bitcoin.
Some people afraid but if they are dare to take the risk, you will see that bitcoin will make you rich

Rich in 2020, I believe so, but you can't predict anything beyond that. It will all depend on big players choices (CEOs and governments).
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December 05, 2017, 04:02:12 PM
 #8

First thing to admit in the bitcoin world nowaday is that bitcoin isn't what it was created to be.
Bitcoin was originally created to be an anonymous currency, with immutable transactions, freeing people from the dictatorship of the banks.
Amongst bitcoin enthusiasts, you can find original bitcoin users, aiming to spend it and use it like a genuine currency. But the majority use bitcoin as a pure speculative product.

The more we hear about bitcoin rising price, the more people want their piece of the cake "ok I want to invest it that too, I want to make a money and it looks like a nice increasing value", adding to the demand. I don't think the price of bitcoin will decrease anytime soon because we are still at the beginning of the curve of adoption, as we can see on, for example, google trend :



My guess is : at each peak, bitcoin earns new users, making the price rise. When they have used all their "potential of speculation", price decrease. We can see on the chart that we have had a huge peak of attention, and coinbase and other trading platforms confirms it, bitcoin has a lot of new users.

It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.

Our "only" chance is that, in the ~2 comings years, huge actors like amazon, facebook, even governments, doesn't obstruct to bitcoin (like china did) but instead start to give bitcoin credits as a proper currency and not as a stock product (like it is happening now).

TL;DR : I really do hope that amazon will one day start to accept bitcoin  Grin

A little nitpicking. BTC was never anonymous. It was this compromise from the ideal that allowed BTC to be created n the first place.

Another nitpick - there isn't a relation to a Ponzi scheme. If anything one can compare it to a pump and dump, but it's way past that stage now.

People aren't spending much now primarily because they think it's going to go up in value. That will change. The price will level off.
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December 05, 2017, 04:15:23 PM
 #9

Bitcoin looks like that because the economic incentives that are programmed into the system encourage bubble creation. When most of the demand for bitcoin is speculative in nature, it cannot function as a currency and it's value grows more and more unstable. I believe these inherent incentives, are very good for the developers and early adopters but pose a real danger to the rest of us. I elaborated on this topic in length in a sepperate post which you are invited to read.
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December 05, 2017, 04:27:22 PM
 #10

IMO it's not Ponzi at all , bitcoin is a currency that can be use for investment especially like ponzi scheme, they offer unreasonable profit by investing bitcoin.
Some people afraid but if they are dare to take the risk, you will see that bitcoin will make you rich
The question is how long they will be rich. It seems to me that bitcoin price is really overpriced. It means that someday she will fall sharply. Who can with 100% accuracy to predict the behavior of bitcoin? I think that everyone should make for themselves an informed decision. Investing in bitcoin is very high risk but the prize can be very large too.
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December 05, 2017, 05:58:25 PM
 #11

I think that all the new users is actually a good thing. I myself find it hard to buy and sell bitcoins because when I do sell just before a large drop, the spread in the exchange is usually too large for me to profit when buying back. So I just hold. And I suppose there are also a lot of people who do that.

And aside from "hodlers" there are people who don't exactly take out all their money. Once they got into bitcoin, they start trading. So while their money might seem to be going out, it's still in the cryptoscene and come back in when they buy during plunges.
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December 05, 2017, 06:54:08 PM
 #12

Bitcoin was originally created to be an anonymous currency
That was never one of the core aims.  Read through the whitepaper.
I don't think the price of bitcoin will decrease anytime soon because we are still at the beginning of the curve of adoption
This is assuming that everything which rises dramatically in price must continue rising until there is literally no money left that could possibly fuel it.

What you're missing is that a significant amount of people will continue to be skeptical or uninterested, and some people will be scared away, considering it more likely to be a bubble if the price rises higher.  If we went by your logic, pretty much everything would be worth loads.
It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.
A Ponzi scheme involves a central authority gaining money by accepting investments into a central platform and then distributing money to earlier investors.  A speculative asset and a Ponzi scheme are entirely different, and it would be ridiculous to conflate the two terms.
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December 05, 2017, 07:13:39 PM
 #13

I see the logic in this, however let's look at tylikely scenario say from now through five ten years.

1. Presently, people are getting to know more and are adopting bitcon. Incidentally, they are in it mostly because they view the coin as an asset not as a means of transfer of value.

2. We are all aware that with time, the demand may taper off, say in five years because majority of those 'investors' are sitting back watching the bloom of their investments.

3. The Bitcoin bull run may slow down, stall or even become a bearish market.

4. If this happens in say five years from now, mining difficulty would have increased. The number of Bitcoin in circulation wouldn't have increased proportionately with the large number of new adopters, so that could mean that the demand for Bitcoin would still be higher than supply mitigating the effect of  usage mainly as a digital asset.

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December 05, 2017, 07:17:37 PM
 #14

Yes we need this to happen, we really need big players like amazon, Facebook, Mac Donald’s, and many more to accept the bitcoin as mode of payment. This will then actually give it the status of “currency”. Now a days it’s been used like normal asset which we see in the stock echangesvand money making financial institutes.

If this continued then it may not be used as currency ever again because people will think that it’s just an asset, and to be honest people don’t bother thinking it that way. If they are getting money out of it then they are more than happy to have it like that way.

So somewhere someday this has to be changed. Bitcoin as whole is currency or at least Mr Satoshi thought so in first place and put his efforts into it. Anyway let’s see what the future will bring to it.
If those big companies did able to adopt bitcoin as making it as a new way payment option then expect price would really surge up but this doesn't mean that it would able to reach up the state on where Satoshi was aiming for. It might done some parts but not as a whole and would able to replace fiat on any way.Most economist do really see this thing as a Ponzi one because price have driven by the community itself but well we don't really care at all as long it do makes money and can be used into any other payment terms then it would really be good no matter what.


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December 05, 2017, 08:10:51 PM
 #15

A Ponzi pays out profits to early investors by using the money of new investors. New investors, are promised the same profits, but the system eventually cannot pay it out when outflow overcomes inflow. A ponzi is managed by a central system that determines who gets paid, that processes profits.

There are no promises in trading Bitcoin, except for the ones that investors imagine for themselves. There are no benefits for recruting newcomers, you don't earn referral fees for new people buying Bitcoin. There is no central scheme in Bitcoin, traders decide between themselves what price the buyer is willing to pay to the seller. For as long as someone is willing to pay the seller's price, a trade happens. There is no exchange of new or old money, there is exchange of existing value.

If Bitcoin looks like a ponzi scheme, then in general, the trading of every stock, commodity and asset can be seen as a ponzi.

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December 05, 2017, 08:13:22 PM
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TL;DR : I really do hope that amazon will one day start to accept bitcoin  Grin

You are right that bitcoin adoption is it's early stages. But due to the fact that it is so revolutionary and so much better than we currently have, I think adoption is just a question of time. The same happened about 20 years ago with the internet: as adoption increased to every household it created whole bunch of industries (lycos, altavista, yahoo, dotcoms, myspace, google, facebook, apple, android, online movies, online trading, work online, online everything), that all use internet as a base. That's why bitcoin is not just a ponzi scheme, but rather inevitable future.
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December 05, 2017, 08:20:48 PM
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First thing to admit in the bitcoin world nowaday is that bitcoin isn't what it was created to be.
How people use their bitcoins is up to them, this is what decentralisation is all about.
Bitcoin was originally created to be an anonymous currency, with immutable transactions, freeing people from the dictatorship of the banks.
Amongst bitcoin enthusiasts, you can find original bitcoin users, aiming to spend it and use it like a genuine currency. But the majority use bitcoin as a pure speculative product.
I personally spend it to help people know about these digital currencies,which is a way to keep it alive and with so many people having an interest in cryptocurrencies this feature of anonymity holds no water and it now stands to be pseudonymous
The more we hear about bitcoin rising price, the more people want their piece of the cake "ok I want to invest it that too, I want to make a money and it looks like a nice increasing value", adding to the demand. I don't think the price of bitcoin will decrease anytime soon because we are still at the beginning of the curve of adoption
Lets blame it on greed

Quote
It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.
You might have overlooked this but altcoins do support bitcoin too

Our "only" chance is that, in the ~2 comings years, huge actors like amazon, facebook, even governments, doesn't obstruct to bitcoin (like china did) but instead start to give bitcoin credits as a proper currency and not as a stock product (like it is happening now).

TL;DR : I really do hope that amazon will one day start to accept bitcoin  Grin
We are are hoping for a big player join the world of bitcoin as this would bring a positive impact in this ecosystem

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December 05, 2017, 08:29:14 PM
 #18

I do not think it's a ponzi, but a bubble, though the difference is very small
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December 05, 2017, 10:03:19 PM
 #19

How people use their bitcoins is up to them, this is what decentralisation is all about.

Well I don't blame them at all. I just point out the fact that bitcoin is, in its vast majority, not used for what it has been created. Just stating fact.

Lets blame it on greed

Let's not blame it at all, it makes perfect sense to want a nice investment.

Quote
It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.
You might have overlooked this but altcoins do support bitcoin too

I don't see your point.

I do not think it's a ponzi, but a bubble, though the difference is very small
A Ponzi pays out profits to early investors by using the money of new investors. New investors, are promised the same profits, but the system eventually cannot pay it out when outflow overcomes inflow. A ponzi is managed by a central system that determines who gets paid, that processes profits.

There are no promises in trading Bitcoin, except for the ones that investors imagine for themselves. There are no benefits for recruting newcomers, you don't earn referral fees for new people buying Bitcoin. There is no central scheme in Bitcoin, traders decide between themselves what price the buyer is willing to pay to the seller. For as long as someone is willing to pay the seller's price, a trade happens. There is no exchange of new or old money, there is exchange of existing value.

If Bitcoin looks like a ponzi scheme, then in general, the trading of every stock, commodity and asset can be seen as a ponzi.
In a Ponzi scheme you give your investment to a foreign company and they pay your winning rate from the money of other investors. This is obviously not the case with bitcoin because it's always peer to peer. I am happy that bitcoin and cryptos are getting more and more popular and I don't care at all that speculators also contribute to its fame.

Please, let's not review every possible definition of a ponzi scheme.

The main characteristic of a Ponzi is to give capital gain to 1st investers with the money of the 2nd investers, give capital gain to the 3rd with the 4th, etc... other stuff, like centralized or not is detail.
I said bitcoin "looked like" a ponzi but it is more than that.
On one side, there is the trading part, giving sometimes huge fluctuations to the value (panic selling, incertitude, external actors...). I think THIS part is the bubble part. Sometimes, price increase drastically and then crashes. Bubble.
On the other side, the price is sky rocketing (and also helps bubble crashes recoveries) because bitcoin exposition controls the number of people coming in (and also the global point of view, even of the bitcoin first enthusiasts : "oh yeah, we talk a lot about bitcoin today, I'll buy some more because I think it will make the price rise").
Finally, on the last and sadly small small side, small fluctuation due to people actually using bitcoin as a currency.

There are of similarities between ponzi and the sky-rocketing part, as I said (simplified): 1st buyers buy ultra low, sell higher to new buyers 2, new buyers 3 buy to 2 and sells higher to new buyer 4... (alongside with pumps and dumps).
This is possible because more and more people are away of the bitcoin.

Only, as long as people doesn't use it as a proper money (or big players like amazon allows the masses to do so easily), when new buyers XXXX will try to sell to the next that never come... the law of supply and demand suggest a dramatic price drop. This is my fear (and this is also my explanation to why some people see similarities with ponzis)
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December 05, 2017, 10:15:11 PM
 #20

And that is the main reason of why bitcoin would not drop until we hear a massive FUD coming from some goverments or just a bank, bitcoin will be bullish because the demand is HUGE.

The more we hear about bitcoin rising price, the more people want their piece of the cake "ok I want to invest it that too

You are wrong with this, once that all people introduce theirselves into this sytem, they will like to stay in here, they have not discovered the real potential of bitcoin yet, they are still on the phase 1 of the adoption.

It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.

It will never be happening, do you really think that the worldwide bank is going to say that bitcoin is a "normal currency", no.

but instead start to give bitcoin credits as a proper currency and not as a stock product

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