By the time you figure out why Bitcoin has risen, it will crash. Here's why

[sabrikks]

well it make sense to me because china has the biggest volume when it come to trading and mining bitcoin.
I have already shift my focus to other crypto due to the bitcoin unhealthy growth the last couple of weeks

[gredisgold88]

bitcoin to fintech and ecomomerce in transaction of services or goods, an impact on btc price . look at steam or some top up credit dev game a start using payouts with bitcoin. if there is a crash on bitcoin prices, some whales can buy again , because goal to price bitcoin is a 1 satoshi have a prices value 10 cents

[Kotone]

A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/china-turns-bitcoin-focus-inward/

At the end of the article he says that China still left open wiggle room to re-open exchanges.  Now this may sound like good news, China is the biggest miner and trader of bitcoin.  But if you know why Bitcoin has risen recently this is very bad news. 



Bitcoin is skyrocketing because it banned exchanges.  The exchange ban went into full effect sept 30th.  This is when bitcoins price started going to the moon.  Supply and demand.  Almost all of the bitcoin supply comes from China.  When exchanges were shut down, none of that supply could make it to the market.  Hence the price goes up.

Two situations could then crash bitcoin.  First a Chinese mining ban.  This would mean the supply of bitcoin would shift to other countries as china will exit the mining pool.  This would cause an increase in bitcoin supply to western markets by nearly 2,000 bitcoin per day.  This would cause bitcoin price to crash but it may be a slow process.

China knows what it is doing and it is trying to obfuscate what is going on behind the scenes.  China wants to crash bitcoin.  They will do it to lead up  to their rollout of the digital crypto Yuan.

Bitcoin will go to the moon.  It will go so high that the whole world will see.  Then as quickly as the rise started, china will re-open the exchanges and cause an instant dump.

At that point everyone will know what caused the rise of bitcoin.  Will you figure it out before that day?

I think that is the fear shared not just ny some but almost all of the people just because of how high bitcoin is skyrocketing. Also here is fear akidst all this positivity and optimism because a lot of countries are banning and putting a stop to this

[DannaWonder]

I don't think that China will still affect the market. They've been out for more than 2 months now and even if they go back to the market with their mined coins the price of the coin will not totally crash. Some of their mining farms had already migrated to another territory which means that it is already included on the exchanges. And how sure are we that they are only mining bitcoins? China is a big fan of forked coins right?

[soham]

A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/china-turns-bitcoin-focus-inward/

At the end of the article he says that China still left open wiggle room to re-open exchanges.  Now this may sound like good news, China is the biggest miner and trader of bitcoin.  But if you know why Bitcoin has risen recently this is very bad news. 



Bitcoin is skyrocketing because it banned exchanges.  The exchange ban went into full effect sept 30th.  This is when bitcoins price started going to the moon.  Supply and demand.  Almost all of the bitcoin supply comes from China.  When exchanges were shut down, none of that supply could make it to the market.  Hence the price goes up.

Two situations could then crash bitcoin.  First a Chinese mining ban.  This would mean the supply of bitcoin would shift to other countries as china will exit the mining pool.  This would cause an increase in bitcoin supply to western markets by nearly 2,000 bitcoin per day.  This would cause bitcoin price to crash but it may be a slow process.

China knows what it is doing and it is trying to obfuscate what is going on behind the scenes.  China wants to crash bitcoin.  They will do it to lead up  to their rollout of the digital crypto Yuan.

Bitcoin will go to the moon.  It will go so high that the whole world will see.  Then as quickly as the rise started, china will re-open the exchanges and cause an instant dump.

At that point everyone will know what caused the rise of bitcoin.  Will you figure it out before that day?

I somewhat agree to your points in few areas. China has banned exchanges for now but kept the possibility open to re-open the exchanges after providing a proper framework. So the Chinese miners and continuing their mining activity and accumulating bitcoins. So if the exchanges are re-open, we will definitely see a huge dumping by the Chinese miners who will want to book their profits. That will increase the supply in the market and we will see a price correction. That may be a possibility.

However, on the flip side, I see that the demand is robust and supply is not enough. That is one reason why the price is increasing because people are wiling to pay higher price for acquiring bitcoin. Since China has already left the demand supply scene post exchange ban, their mining ban wouldn't effect the existing demand. Only the supply will be increased which can be easily soaked up by the existing demand. So these two situations are actually compensating to each other. China is already out of the equation and I don't see any major impact on bitcoin because of China's policy change.

[ir.hn]

Yes we are talking about 1 country when that country made up 90% of the trading volume.  Not anymore.  The lack of supply after sept 30 caused a spike

your mistake is that you don't understand the difference between "trading volume" and "Supply". you think they are the same thing. you also ignore the fact that these exchanges had 0 fees and margin trading and these two increases the volume. add to that the fake volume they reported for compatition's sake and you see where you are wrong.

and you are also assuming that closing Chinese exchanges blocked the funds people had on exchanges but it was nothing like this, people withdrew their bitcoins and those coins came back to circulation. in other words the "supply" never changed.

I do understand the difference between trading volume and supply, the point I was making is that yes when a country makes up 90% of the trading volume (just a convienient measure of how much influence an individual country has on the price) then yes we should be studying that countries bitcoin policies closely.  Measuring bitcoins supply is a little tougher but we can look at their huge mining dominance percentage as well.

Take home message is that the chinese people controlled bitcoins price and now they still do because millions of coins are tied up there and can't be spent on international exchanges.

[TheGreatUnknown]

This is what I feared the most as a Newbie this thing that by the time we start earning the bitcoin will fall short and loses it's high rise value but I also believe that bitcoin will make a comeback maybe this thought just came in to my mind because i'm just a newbie and I didn't fully explore what bitcoins is truly all about. I believe bitcoin will last for a very long time.

[redhondaxrm125]

Well, i respect your point amd your perspective, i also am grateful for the warning, but i disagree. Now, i do not want to rain on your parade but it just doesn't make much sense, yes it may be logical back then but now i do not think so, since bitcoins have already gone more famlus. Which has changed the tides. Also, People were not hindered from withdrawals back then. I am wondering where that info came from, but that isn't true.

But hey, if this happens and bitcoin never gets to survive this predicament, then it doesn't deserve my trust and admiration.

[ir.hn]

I'm not saying everone should sell now.  But if I'm right bitcoin will keep rising till it crashes.  The indicator to look for is when china says it will reopen exchanges (just hope that they give us a public warning).  At that point you can wait till the last day before the excahnges open to sell.  But when bitcoin is at $500,000 and chinese exchanges are about to re-open you better get out before billions of chinese can.

[Walrus1]

By the time you hear news that effects the price of Bitcoin it already happened

[ir.hn]

By the time you hear news that effects the price of Bitcoin it already happened

Right but what im saying is that most people won't know why bitcoin rose until it crashes.  Then this rise will all make sense.

[superlative]

Guys - exchanges are not banned in China.  There's Huobi which is still open.  What has stopped is btc-yuan exchangING.  Crypto-crypto trading is still allowed in China.  Also, obviously because China mines most of the bitcoin, they must be able to get it to exchanges somehow.

[ir.hn]

Guys - exchanges are not banned in China.  There's Huobi which is still open.  What has stopped is btc-yuan exchangING.  Crypto-crypto trading is still allowed in China.  Also, obviously because China mines most of the bitcoin, they must be able to get it to exchanges somehow.

The only exchanges that are open are domestic only p2p.  This means that millions of chinese bitcoins are not appearing on the international exchanges wherein the price of bitcoin is determined.  This causes a lack of supply on global exchanges and the price on such exchanges keeps going up.

[colonel_koval]

A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/china-turns-bitcoin-focus-inward/

At the end of the article he says that China still left open wiggle room to re-open exchanges.  Now this may sound like good news, China is the biggest miner and trader of bitcoin.  But if you know why Bitcoin has risen recently this is very bad news.  



Bitcoin is skyrocketing because it banned exchanges.  The exchange ban went into full effect sept 30th.  This is when bitcoins price started going to the moon.  Supply and demand.  Almost all of the bitcoin supply comes from China.  When exchanges were shut down, none of that supply could make it to the market.  Hence the price goes up.

Two situations could then crash bitcoin.  First a Chinese mining ban.  This would mean the supply of bitcoin would shift to other countries as china will exit the mining pool.  This would cause an increase in bitcoin supply to western markets by nearly 2,000 bitcoin per day.  This would cause bitcoin price to crash but it may be a slow process.

China knows what it is doing and it is trying to obfuscate what is going on behind the scenes.  China wants to crash bitcoin.  They will do it to lead up  to their rollout of the digital crypto Yuan.

Bitcoin will go to the moon.  It will go so high that the whole world will see.  Then as quickly as the rise started, china will re-open the exchanges and cause an instant dump.

At that point everyone will know what caused the rise of bitcoin.  Will you figure it out before that day?

I totally disagree. The thing responsible for bitcoin price growths is the news about opening future contracts bitcoin trading, and to be exact, is the hype and expectations about the news. The thing is, that in my opinion (a sentiment shared by other bitcointalk users, what I learnt when I read a few threads on the subject) the future contracts trading is NOT a good thing for bitcoin in the long run, but people are unaware of it and they get all excited it is happening. It drives the price up

[audaciousbeing]

A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/china-turns-bitcoin-focus-inward/

At the end of the article he says that China still left open wiggle room to re-open exchanges.  Now this may sound like good news, China is the biggest miner and trader of bitcoin.  But if you know why Bitcoin has risen recently this is very bad news. 



Bitcoin is skyrocketing because it banned exchanges.  The exchange ban went into full effect sept 30th.  This is when bitcoins price started going to the moon.  Supply and demand.  Almost all of the bitcoin supply comes from China.  When exchanges were shut down, none of that supply could make it to the market.  Hence the price goes up.

Two situations could then crash bitcoin.  First a Chinese mining ban.  This would mean the supply of bitcoin would shift to other countries as china will exit the mining pool.  This would cause an increase in bitcoin supply to western markets by nearly 2,000 bitcoin per day.  This would cause bitcoin price to crash but it may be a slow process.

China knows what it is doing and it is trying to obfuscate what is going on behind the scenes.  China wants to crash bitcoin.  They will do it to lead up  to their rollout of the digital crypto Yuan.

Bitcoin will go to the moon.  It will go so high that the whole world will see.  Then as quickly as the rise started, china will re-open the exchanges and cause an instant dump.

At that point everyone will know what caused the rise of bitcoin.  Will you figure it out before that day?

Several reasons have been expounded how the bitcoin would crash and every of those theories have one common characteristics which is 'an insider'. There was one that I read that I have to ponder over it that according to insider information, the plan was to increase bitcoin price up to $10000 then from there start crashing the price even to as low as $3000 but alas bitcoin price touched $15000 and its still standing.

I have always maintained that China still have a control on bitcoin simply because of the grip they have on mining which is going to be their last card which I am sure they are waiting for the right time to that its going to make a devastating effect before launching that. Anyone who is conversant should be weary of that. On the lifting of ban on exchange sites, I don't expect that to cause much impact although it could cause a fairly drop but not to the point of crash as you have made it sound. The fact is the world is gradually moving away from such while Chinese enthusiasts, would have been making use of alternatives to transact with their bitcoin.

[Barcode_]

There are actually quite a number of reasons in bitcoin price rise and crash, china have already shown the world that they could not manipulate or influence the values of bitcoin for a long period of time, the announcement of all bitcoin exchanges to cease operation in china is the best examples, it only manage to cause a short period of panic selling and bitcoin have shown good resilience against it.

[MMostaza]

There is a thing that I didn't get clear from this post is: if really China is kind of conspiring to crash Bitcoin... Which is the motto? For what reason they want to do that? what they earn with this?

About the topic of how will Bitcoin stop to rise and if its end is going to be a disaster, I read an statement from an expert from Autonoma University of Barcelona in which he said: first of all the reason of the rise is the massive adoption, we have passed the line in where just the experts were interested in Cryptocurrency. He said that the value of Bitcoin doesn't have a rising limit, but that he believe it will get stabilised whenever the coin is reaching the major among of the society.

I believe these kind of statements are less fatalist and also they have sense.

[tanghere1]

Why does the china banned trading and mining bitcoin in the first place. And you saying that it will re-open, again what is the reason why?

[kevoh]

I think we are focusing too much on when and what will cause a crash in the price of bitcoin. Back in September 2017, China's ban action caused a dip in the price but the community rallied and bitcoin price bounced back. In the first bitcoin crash, bitcoin dropped  71% in 12 hours and it took the coin about seven months to recover. There was even a time it bitcoin stayed in in half of the price it dropped to for more than two to three years before it started rising.

The question other questions to ask :
1. will bitcoin bounce back when it crashes?
2. How long will it take to recover? 1 week? 4 months ? 2 years?

[CryptoBry]

This is a funny post and just one of the many 'conspiracy' type of theories around why we are seeing Bitcoin surged big recently. I would not add my own speculative idea but am more inclined to believe that there is a high demand because many are expecting Bitcoin to 'moon' as we are nearing the official opening of Bitcoin Futures on the 10th and 18th of this month as well as those expected to open next year. China has a slim chance of returning back to the Bitcoin market as the decision is very political -- they are afraid of Bitcoin as something they can never totally control and that's it. In case, they will reopen China it must be under a very strictly regulated environment.