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Author Topic: SatoshiDice odds wrong?  (Read 887 times)
KgBC (OP)
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July 10, 2013, 12:32:08 PM
 #1

First, hello I'm new here Grin

I did some calculations on the table shown in Satoshidice:
It states, it will keep 1.9% house edge on most bets. If my calculations are right, this is wrong.
I didn't bet until now, I want to know the correct values first.

Example:
let's take the 50% odds for easy explanation:
http://www.anonmgur.com/up/a7a79e1f0b69c1438597a4719108f870.jpg

Winning odds are 50%, wich is correct: 65536/32768*100=50

House edge should be 1.9%,
Price multiplier is given as 1.957x
Here I think, this is wrong.

On 0% house edge, I should get 2x on a 50% odds.

If I have to pay 1.9% house edge on both (my capital and winning) I should get:
2/100*(100-1.9) = 1.962x multiplier

Or the other way around: given the multiplier of 1.957x, the house edge calculates to:
100-(1.957/2*100) = 2.15% house edge

The transaction fee isn't included in any calculations here.

Am I doing something wrong or is SatoshiDice bad in math?  Shocked

king regards,
KgBC
KgBC (OP)
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July 10, 2013, 12:41:11 PM
 #2

You are not wrong. satoshidice is just using another way to calcualte it
I suggest playing just dice.
Thanks, do you know how SD calculates? To me it looks like they lie to their customers.
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July 11, 2013, 05:06:46 AM
 #3

SatoshiDice is not lying, you just made a simple mistake in your calculations. Specifically, you forgot that SatoshiDice pays you a small amount (0.5% of your wager) if you lose, that way you always get something back whether you win or not (unless something's gone wrong), allowing you to easily tell the difference between a loss and a failure to pay out a win due to technical problems.

In the case of lessthan 32768, you will win 1.957x your wager 50% of the time, and 0.005x your wager the other 50%, giving an expected return of (1.957x0.5 + 0.005x0.5) = 0.981 for a house edge of 1.9%.

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KgBC (OP)
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July 11, 2013, 08:43:17 AM
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SatoshiDice is not lying, you just made a simple mistake in your calculations. Specifically, you forgot that SatoshiDice pays you a small amount (0.5% of your wager) if you lose, that way you always get something back whether you win or not (unless something's gone wrong), allowing you to easily tell the difference between a loss and a failure to pay out a win due to technical problems.
Great, that was the information I was searching for. I didn't read about the lose payouts. So back to the spreadsheet Smiley

Thanks, best regards.
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July 12, 2013, 10:02:18 PM
 #5

pardon any replies from my account...I did not post on this thread...some bastard hacker did.  I am deleting his mess.  hopefully no one traded with this bastard and my name remains untarnished.

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