I noticed today that the current distribution of bitcoins obeys a power law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law
If you draw it on a log-log graph then you get a nice straight line.
With a bit of whimsy, I have extrapolated what this graph will look like in a year from now (July 2012) and in two years time (July 2013) to predict the future price of bitcoins !
Here is the distribution of bitcoin I use initially:
1 x Satoshi owns 2,000,000 BTC
10 x "2010 Early geeks" own 200,000 BTC each
100 x "2010 Late geeks" own 20,000 BTC each
1000 x "2011 Q1 Early adopters" own 200 BTC each
10,000 x "2011 Q2 Early adopters" own 20 BTC each
100,000 x "2011 July Dabblers" own 3 BTC each
This distribution roughly matches the price and numbers available of BTC since its creation - it is an educated guess really
Here is what the current distribution looks like:http://jdigi.net/powerLaw/bitcoin%202011%20July.png
(2011 July | bitcoin at USD 20 = 1 BTC | 100,000 bitcoin users)
If you extrapolate the straight line for a year you get this graph:http://jdigi.net/powerLaw/bitcoin%202012%20July.png
(2012 July | bitcoin at USD 100 = 1 BTC | 600,000 bitcoin users)
And then push it out another year you get this:http://jdigi.net/powerLaw/bitcoin%202013%20July.png
(2013 July | bitcoin at USD 1000 = 1 BTC | 5,600,000 bitcoin users)
I have put the Open Office spreadsheet I used to make these graphs at:http://jdigi.net/powerLaw/bitcoin%20power%20law.ods
if you want to have a play.
p.s. Do you own due diligence, this is not financial advice, etc, etc