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黑龙江养老金告急:年轻人不断流失 累计结余已穿底
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Topic: 黑龙江养老金告急:年轻人不断流失 累计结余已穿底 (Read 104 times)
gaiheb
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黑龙江养老金告急:年轻人不断流失 累计结余已穿底
December 07, 2017, 01:58:39 AM
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(原标题:黑龙江养老金告急:东北“留人”更急)
东北经济的振兴,不能只依靠中央输血,必须自己能够造血,自己的骨头能够长出肉来。
人社部最近发布了一份《中国社会保险发展年度报告2016》,报告显示,全国总体的企业养老保险基金在2016年的累计结余达到近3.7万亿元,较2015年继续增长,企业养老金平均可支付月数维持在17个月以上,但也有多个省份养老金告急。其中最严重的当属黑龙江省,不仅当期收不抵支,且累计结余已“穿底”。
报告显示:黑龙江省2016年企业职工养老保险基金收入890亿元,支出1210亿元,当期收不抵支320亿元。由于2015年还结余88亿元,2016年总欠账232亿元。黑龙江省成为全国首个养老金结余被花光的省份。
黑龙江的养老金告急,其实不算是“黑天鹅”,而是有其历史必然性。东北经济曾经在重工业时代,素有“共和国长子”之殊荣,一方面与其重工业的发展为中国经济腾飞打下了相当的基础有关;但更为重要的是,以国有企业为最大特征的重工业,一直承担着“企业办社会”的重要职能。
计划经济时代的单位制,在东北也最为典型。而这种单位制的核心,就是职工“从生到死”都由企业包办。而当现代化的社会保障体系初步建立之时,为了缓解当时单位制转轨的改革阻力,社保养老基金都采取的是记账制,也就是说,“欠账”也从那时开始。
但是,“欠账”的存在只是一个开始而不是结束。面对当前的“穿底”,社保基金以及财政尚且有转圜的余地。近年来,对于振兴东北老工业基地可谓是利好政策不断,而且国资划转社保改革草案已经出台,未来国资救急养老社保的步伐,能够在相当程度上解决养老金的来源问题。
尽管有了“救急”方案,但这还是敲响了警钟:面对东北经济,在短暂的救急之后,更需要“救穷”的措施。养老金背后的根本问题,其实并不出在历史,而是出在未来。从计划经济转轨所遭遇的问题,不唯东北在经历,其他地区同样也遇到不同的问题。
东北僵局产生的关键原因在于人口的变化,即年轻人不断流失——这本应是预期中地方养老金的重要来源之一。
此前有媒体报道,东北正在拉响危机警报:人口加速减少已影响经济复苏。根据央视此前报道,2000年和2010年的第五次、第六次全国人口普查数据显示,东北的人口流失已达400万人,而且其中高层、管理层和生产线的骨干力量占了多数。
人才危机的A面,是经济增长缺乏动能;B面则是新生血液不足。这对在老龄化人口基数相对较大的东三省,更是雪上加霜。
东北经济的振兴,不能只依靠中央输血,必须自己能够造血,自己的骨头能够长出肉来。正如发改委东北振兴司司长周建平说,东北问题症结并非仅仅产业问题,而是一系列问题造成的,解决这一问题也要立足于自己的比较优势和禀赋优势。
如何跟上时代的步伐实现经济转型升级,如何以更开放、更多可能性的社会流通机制来留住人才,甚至是吸引人才回到黑土地,这才是穿透东北养老金危机背后的真正问题。对东北来说,解决留人问题,跟解决养老金缺口危机本质上也是同构的。
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